In a referendum on June 23 will show the British how to further imagine the future relationship of their country with the European Union. This decision will affect not only international relations, but will also have significance for individual portfolios of residents of the Community. Therefore continent holds its breath, watching anxiously island hesitation.
In recent times, we observe a large caution in the interpretation of information about the moods and preferences of the British administered by research companies. What is certain is that the result of the plebiscite is not a foregone conclusion, and the battle will be fought to the last day. The British government on the referendum is divided equally in half. Head of the camp followers of the Union is Prime Minister David Cameron, while opponents Brussels bloc led by several leaders of the justice minister at the helm. The dividing lines between supporters of the two options are extremely intricate, lead by a completely alien to them ideologically areas, which further obscures the picture.
For many months, it seemed that the City of London wall support followers stay in the EU, but support business is not at all obvious. Prime Minister Cameron on the recent meeting with people market said that if you do not want to help, it should at least do not interfere. Meanwhile, in early May of 110 well-known managers, including the former head of HSBC, in favor of breaking with the EU, claiming that Brexit strengthen the position of the City as a global financial center.
It is quite controversial thesis, because the prevailing view is that the output of the Union weaken the importance of London on the financial map of the world. That HSBC has announced the transfer of central Asia, on the grounds that the rising costs of regulation in Europe and uncertainty about the future of the UK. If Brexitu City for the duration of the development of bilateral agreements will be cut off from the EU. Temporarily, this may have a negative impact on the market of investment financial products, also in Poland, as the largest supplier of these chemicals is just London.
As you know, business does not tolerate emptiness and possible problems bankers of the City will take advantage of competitors on the continent . Today said openly that after leaving the UK in the Community, the financial center of the EU’s move to Frankfurt, where the headquarters of the European Central Bank, the German Stock Exchange and the headquarters of several banks.
Economy stupid
the pre-referendum discussion increasingly appeals to the emotions and British fears of an influx of successive waves of immigrants in connection with allegedly prepared by the Brussels accession of Albania and Turkey to the Community. Despite all the economic arguments have the greatest power of persuasion. The research by Ipsos MORI shows that the biggest concern among voters raises Brexitu impact on the economy, labor market and trade. The problem of immigration is in second place, and only the next in importance is the issue of British sovereignty, strongly raised by Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London (now, Sadiq Khan joined the campaign to remain in the UK in the Community). Two out of three opponents of the EU states that no fear, as output from the Community will translate into the British economy. More importantly, concerns about the economic future is of primary importance for the British, who are reluctant to how to vote.
As shown by numerous studies, these fears are not unfounded. Financial Times citing research National Institute of Economic and Social Research published that in consequence Brexitu, UK economic growth in 2017 could be lower by 0.8 percentage point. In the longer term, by 2030, the British GDP will be lower than 1.5 percent. to 7.8 percent. compared to the baseline scenario, which remain the country in the EU. This is consistent with the opinion of the estimates of the Credit Swiss, according to which domestic product of the United Kingdom as a result of increased uncertainty, loss of confidence among entrepreneurs, tightening financing conditions, high inflation, a decline in real income, may in the short term to reduce by 1-2 per cent.
fear for the future
In addition to the economic outlook, it is worth considering what the effects of withdrawal from the EU can bring the British currency. Since the beginning of the year the pound has fallen by more than 7 percent. against the euro and the depreciation in April was up 12 percent. The sell-off against the dollar, which this year is extremely frail, is smaller, but at the peak, last month exceeded 6 percent. And this is just a foretaste of what awaits the pound, because the experience of the referendum on independence for Scotland show that real capital outflow may move for a few days before the vote. Goldman Sachs predicts that the decision “yes” would weaken the pound by 15-20 per cent., Which will be a considerable challenge for importers and households, reducing their purchasing power.
The last in the queue
Barack Obama during a recent visit to the UK hit a nerve saying that if the United Kingdom come from the EU, it will go to the end of the queue of countries negotiating Transatlantic Partnership for Trade and Investment. The British may resent the patronizing president, but must admit that Brexit this great experiment and a question mark for the country.
The experts have no illusions that in case of leaving the EU, Britain awaits a number of challenges and negotiations related to the with presence in other international organizations. Considering the effect Brexitu should take into account the fact that the United Kingdom joined the World Trade Organization as a member of the EU. It Brussels, London, on behalf of the negotiated conditions for the functioning of the WTO. Her boss – Roberto Azevedo, in an interview with the Financial Times pointed out that in the case of the Community United Kingdom will have to re-sign the agreement states, the agreed terms again. There is no question of “copying” the conditions set by the EU.
Brexit and Polish
Output British and the EU will also have serious consequences for the Polish. Uncertain is the future of more than 700 thousand. Poles working in the UK. It is not known what will be their status, which will have labor rights, social entitlements and health. Rather, it seems very unlikely that London had forced them to return to the country. Certainly, however, the opportunity to go to work on the island will be drastically reduced.
According to estimates of the Polish GDP in the first year after Brexicie can be reduced by 1 percent. The UK is an important trade partner of Polish, which we note a sizable surplus. Export Islands has a value of 44 billion zł, and imports 18.2 billion zł. Brexit will probably result in restrictions on foreign trade.
Such a significant structural change dynamically react to the financial markets. The threat of further splits within the EU will be another building block to the collapse of the Community budget. Indifferent to the exit from the Community would surely not our currency. Poland may unwittingly become a victim of capital outflow, which will weaken the zloty.
One of the consequences Brexitu will be a new division of the EU budget. Today, Poland is the biggest beneficiary of funds from Brussels. After leaving the UK, the second largest net contributor after Germany, shared cash will once again be divided. This means first and foremost a smaller pot. And what’s more, taking into account not the best today relations Warsaw with Berlin and Brussels can assume that this time the distribution of money will give us less favorable than the last determination of the budget.
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