On Wednesday, gold gains in value, odreagowując plunge in the last days, when the major currencies rose by 10-15 gr. At 15:34 the EUR / PLN tested the level of 4.4175 zł, compared to 4.4306 on Tuesday to close and yesterday’s maximum at 4.4436 zł. USD / PLN retreated to 3.9405 zł, and CHF / PLN to 4.0842 zł. The only exception is the pair GBP / PLN, which grows about 10 gr to 5.5797 zł. It’s a reaction to the rebound in the pound after the recent British currency weakened on a wave of concern before leaving the UK from the European Union.
Today’s reflection golden supports improved sentiment on global markets, which is reflected in rising European stock markets and the associated increase in risk appetite. At the root of this improvement lies some calm fears Brexitem, as well as waiting for the evening results of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the subsequent press conference, Janet Yellen.
The meeting of the FOMC main theme of the market
FOMC meeting today is the main theme of the market. Not only turned it on while attention of the British referendum, but also became a pretext to ignore a series of US data. Data very different. It turned out that the core PPI accelerated in May, much stronger than expected, and the recovery in the industrial sector was around New York in June, stronger than expected (a plus for the dollar). On the other hand, industrial production in May for the whole of the United States decreased by 0.4% in relation month, after she jumped in April by 0.6% (minus the dollar).
The results of the meeting FOMC will be known at 20:00. Then it will be published projections of future changes in interest rates and the major macroeconomic data. Half an hour later, at a press conference occurs Janet Yellen.
Changing interest rates is not expected
At this meeting, a change in interest rates is not expected. It is certain. So the question is, what will be the new forecasts and what he says Yellen. In theory revision of the forecasts may not be at all, and the head of the Fed should maintain its current rhetoric bank. Then a large cloud would have the proverbial little rain. So the lack of reaction of the financial markets. In the currency market. If, however, accept that some changes will occur, it is most real is the downward revision of forecasts and pigeon rhetoric Yellen. As a result, the dollar would lose value, the stock gained as risk appetite increased by. Then you also gain gold. It was under such a scenario today, the game goes on.
At the moment, the biggest threat for the zloty is a referendum on. Brexitu and potential support for such policy the Fed. In the latter case, rejecting the prospect of interest rate hikes would give a boost to all emerging markets. At least until investors have not figured out that the lack of economic acceleration in the US heralds the problems of the global economy, including first of all China and the euro zone.
On the horizon, there is however potential new impulses from the domestic economy. Recently published data, as well as those that will be published this week are part of the scenario of economic recovery after a weak first quarter. On the other hand, still remains the risk associated with the solution of the issue of loans frankowych and budget for 2017 years, but so far that the risk does not increase.
Tomorrow morning, the gold will be influenced by signals sent today by the FOMC, and also under the influence of nocturnal Bank of Japan’s decision ws. interest rates. However, already in the afternoon, despite the planned publication of data from the Polish (wages, employment) and the USA (CPI inflation, Philadelphia Fed index), could return about BREXIT-u. This would mean that gold will again be under pressure sellers.
Martin Kiepas, Principal Analyst Admiral Markets AS, Branch in Poland
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