On Wednesday, June 1st, the European Commission sent the Polish authorities’ opinion ws. The state of the rule of law. He informed the deputy head of the European Commission Frans Timmermans. The reason is the lack of solution to the crisis around TK.
Opinion summarizes run from January 13 EC dialogue with the Polish government on the situation around the Court. This is the first stage led to the Polish procedures to protect the rule of law. Your comment is confidential. How say EU sources, it is critical and states that there is a systemic threat to the rule of law in Poland.
It was two weeks after the Moody’s maintained its rating of Polish debt at A2 / P-1, but also changed the rating outlook from stable to negative. Among the reasons for such an assessment agency mentioned, among others, Fiscal risks associated with a significant increase in current expenditure, as well as the government’s intention to reduce the retirement age.
Is aggravating a dispute over Polish Government with the European Commission may be another of the conditions to maintain in the future negative perspective, or even a reduction of the rating? PAP asked several economists, as the dispute of the government with the Commission, may translate into a state of the Polish economy and Polish finance.
An economist from the Institute for Market Economics and former president of the Central Statistical Office Bogdan Wyżnikiewicz notes that if the dispute will be maintained on the economy “may begin to act soft, immeasurable negative factors.” “If a company will have a choice of investment, eg., In the Czech Republic and here is the similar conditions can make the difference is this situation” – said the expert.
In his view, the EU officials are in the current situation less favorably look on the Polish projects and applications. This in turn can translate into our financial situation. “It will be as in the figure, which saw Prime Minister Beata Szydło pulls the flag of the EU, and on the back of a hand takes the bag euro” – draws attention Wyżnikiewicz.
He admits, however, that if “the non-economic aspects are balanced by good performance of the economy. “
Prof. Leokadia Oręziak from SGH believes that in the short term the government conflict with the EC does not necessarily translate into the economy, but if it continues, the consequences will be greater. “This will be influenced in the image of Polish as a country less credible and will not create a climate of Poland to be able to raise money on the markets,” – noted economist.
In her opinion, can not be excluded either rating downgrades, although data economic good. “But any prolonged conflict inevitably influences the evaluation of the country, as not radzącego the problems” – she pointed out. According to prof. Oręziak “for investors it is not insignificant, because they prefer to come to countries that do not roll big conflicts, but rather there is peace.” “You have to have hope that this could somehow solve, although at the moment it does not look like” – she added.
Prof. Stanislaw Gomulka, an economist and former Deputy Minister of Finance pointed out that the impact of the political situation in the zloty exchange rate and stock index is noticeable for several months. “In the case of stock index influence is even a very big” – he stressed.
Other important from the point of view of quotations may be, according to Gomulka, the state pension system (including the condition of OFE), possibly after lowering the retirement age and condition banks after the entry into force of the following laws concerning them, especially the law on loans frankowych.
the Economist notes that recently fell investment in fixed capital. The main reason, in his opinion, there is indeed a conflict, the Polish government – the European Commission, but the entrance of the new EU budget perspective (2014-20) and the lack of Polish preparations for the absorption of EU funds.
Gomulka also accepts that the conflict European Commission – the government can influence the further reduction of capital inflows, as well as foreign and domestic investment. “As it appears legal risk, it has a negative impact on investment,” – he stressed.
At the moment, pointed, so it is an accumulation of factors that may adversely affect the state of the economy and state finances. This lack of stability law, due to conflict of TK associated with this dispute with the European Commission, the new perspective of the budget of the EU, to promote consumption and not investment initiatives such as the 500 plus new ideas to tax the government and so on.
In a recent interview PAP Deputy Mateusz Morawiecki said that “the investment climate certainly affects also swirling around the Polish, which is needlessly created by our political adversaries, but this is not a major impact.” “Investors make decisions primarily on the basis of their business plans and prospects for economic development in the country. This influence is perhaps at 10 or 20 per cent., That is not too large, but noticeable” – rated.
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