Anxiety analysts on CSO data dot. Production and sales – Onet.pl

 
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Central Statistical Office said on Thursday. that in July this year. sold industrial output was lower by 3.4 percent. yoy, against a rise of 6 percent. in June this year., construction output fell by 18.8 per cent. on an annualized basis, compared to a decline of 13 percent. in June.

On the other hand, retail sales in July. was higher by 4.4 percent. yoy and qoq increased by 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, economists in the so-called. market consensus had expected retail sales growth of 5.4 percent. yoy.

“The data are weak,” – commented in an interview with PAP Piotr Kuczynski, an analyst at Xelion. “When it comes to selling, frankly I was surprised, because in July were already after the payment under the 500 plus” – notes the analyst.

“since you the money credited to the demand, and certainly replenished, it means that some Poles refrain from shopping. it looks bad, because almost 60 per cent. GDP is domestic demand,” – adds .

According to Kuczynski but the most surprising data on production. “We were expecting a slight increase, while a decline of 3.4 percent. Year to year,” – says analyst, paying also attention to the “total attack in the construction industry and is at the peak of the construction season.”

According to the analyst, this may be due to insufficient start-up of EU funds. “The government needs to find out why the EU funds do not move, because if they moved, it would not be” – says Kuczynski.

“the next quarters will be better, it is not in doubt, but it does not look good in this situation, even the reduced government forecasts GDP growth this year of 3.5 percent. are the small question mark” – emphasizes analyst the company Xelion.

also, according to experts, the Employers of Poland, “the latest results of the industrial sector and retail sales in Poland are big disappointment. “

” the July results Polish industry are very weak and do not explain them entirely statistical effects or also unfavorable difference the number of working days. The value of sold production of industry shrank fastest from 3.5 years (year on year). This is a disturbing signal, although unfavorable data from one month does not yet mean the collapse of the current, relatively favorable trend, “- said in a statement quoted expert Employers of Poland Lukasz Kozlowski.

Employers Experts also point out in a statement that “despite steadily improving situation on the labor market and faster-growing wages, a tendency Polish households to increase their consumption remains moderate.”

“Even the start of a large-scale program of 500+ family did not alter this state of affairs. If – as now – the Polish economy will still be coming in alarming signals, it is expected that this uncertainty also translate some time on the behavior of consumers, prompting them to even greater prudence in spending money “- says.

on the other hand, according to analysts from the department of economic analysis BZ WBK, in particular disappointment was industrial production, which fell on an annual basis (also the processing). “Although the result was negatively influenced by the effect of working days (two less than a year ago), the seasonally adjusted production rose by only 1.6 percent. year-on-year, which is half a slower pace than in the first half of the year “- analysts comment BZ WBK.

They support also of the opinion that “consumption accelerated in the second half of the year will not be sufficient to offset the negative impact of the lack of recovery in exports (industrial production) and investment (construction sector).”

“we expect that August will improve, but today’s readings support our scenario of a lack of acceleration in GDP growth in the second half. year. Recently revised GDP forecast down to approx. 3 per cent. 2016 and less than 3 percent. in 2017 “- noted analysts message BZ WBK.

Also, an economist with Bank Pekao Wojciech Matysiak believes that July’s figures are below analysts’ expectations. in his opinion, the weak economic data increased the chances of a rate cut. “Moreover, inflation remains significantly below the target, and the uncertainty about growth in the world economy is large. (…) However, we maintain our forecast that the central bank did not change interest rates for an extended period, “- says an economist.