– Government of the missing 5 billion zł to finance the program 500+ next year – said in an interview with “Puls Biznesu” Henryk Kowalczyk, the head of the Standing Committee of the Council of Ministers. But the promise that the money will be found. On Tuesday afternoon, the Ministry of Finance issued a statement stating that “there are no signs of a lack of liquidity in the implementation of tasks resulting from the program 500+ Family.” To reach the pockets therefore the government to patch this hole? And that actually has a chance to find the money?
Update 16:57
– Currently missing about 5 billion zł to finance the program 500+, but we find it – says Henryk Kowalczyk, chairman of the Standing Committee of the Council of Ministers in an interview for “Puls Biznesu”. As for the money for the payment of benefits in 2017, when at the flagship program of Law and Justice will need to be already 23 billion zł.
The government always ensures that the payment of funds from the program 500+ is not compromised because the extra money will find a the counter state after sealing the tax system. Only if these measures are not written with the finger on the water?
In theory, everything is correct. Development Minister Matthew Morawicki enumerated recently that in 2007, so at the end of the previous PiS government, consumption taxes accounted for 17 percent. GDP. Currently, it fell to 13 percent. According to the minister, if the tax collection even raise to the level of 2007, this alone would be enough to finance the program of 500 +.
This is still a gap in VAT, which wants to fight the government. It is estimated at approx. 40 billion zł. But the theory can be put into practice?
The government will find money under one condition
– Some time ago I thought that the income from sealing, which so the government says, are virtual. But I not assumed activities that from the legal point may be quite questionable. Now it turns out that the Ministry of Justice wants to introduce receiverships companies where there is a reasonable suspicion of tax evasion. If the legislation is going to go in this direction, the impact of these measures on tax revenues will be large. But I emphasize, they are questionable constitutionally – says Dr. Jakub Borowski, chief economist of Credit Agricole.
In his view, the increasing revenues from VAT appear at the beginning of the year is a result of concerns companies as well as the new rules will be interpreted by authorities bills, especially cases not entirely clear. – Income from seals taxes will be higher, the more radical measures will be in the range of punishment – he added.
– Now, I think that as a result of the work already undertaken, but also announced new solutions gap 5 billion zł up will close – concludes Dr. Jakub Borowski. There is only one condition: GDP must grow at a rate above 3 percent. with a strong contribution of domestic demand, including consumption and investment. If the economic growth slows down, this gap can not be completely closed, but at the moment we do not expect such a scenario.
The government can take the dividend
The seal of the tax system is, moreover, not only source that can take advantage of the government to find missing money for the program 500+ in 2017.
– I note that the Multiannual Financial Plan Minister of Finance wrote that the VAT rate will be reduced. But we know already that this reduction will not, and this is an additional 7 billion zł – lists Dr. Jakub Borowski.
According to the economist, if necessary, the government can also dig deeper into the pockets of the companies in which it has interests. – The government can still freely shape the dividend policy at the expense of investment opportunities – emphasizes Borowski.
The finance ministry calms
“The law on state aid in the raising of children came into force on April 1, 2016 r., and the expenditure on the implementation of the family are spending 500+ legally zdeterminowanymi and priority. in the budget for 2016 on the implementation of the above. Act planned total of 17 million 55 million 90 thousand. zł, including 15 billion 355 million 90 thousand. zł in the budgets of provincial governors. the Ministry of Finance did not reach any signs of lack of liquidity in the implementation of tasks resulting from the above. Act. According to the impact assessment (RIA) to the above. Act, for 2017. on the implementation of the envisaged amount of 22 billion 567 million zł, ie. approx. 5.5 billion zł more than in the current year. work on the draft state budget for 2017 continues, and one of its objectives is to keep the public finance deficit below 3 per cent. GDP “- says the position of the Ministry .
According to the Ministry of Finance – we read – “to ensure stable financing Programme 500+ will be possible thanks to the already entered into force, as well as the planned reforms, which will have a positive impact on revenue of the state budget.” “Although most of the effects of actions sealing the tax system will begin to appear from 2017. Is already in the first half of 2016. Was observed reversal lasted for many years the trend to reduce tax revenues relative to GDP” – indicated.
according to the information of the Ministry that according to preliminary estimates, the state budget revenues in January-June 2016. were higher by 10.6 percent. compared with the same period last year, and the same tax revenue increased by 7.4 percent. y / y. “Same VAT receipts were in this period by 4.5 billion zł higher than a year earlier,” – added the resort.
“The state budget revenue in 2017. Will also be higher due to introduced in 2016 from taxes financial institutions and retail sales “- MF added.
About the financing of 500+ was asked by reporters on Tuesday the head of the parliamentary committee of public finance Jacek Sasin (PiS). According to him, tax revenues to the budget will be sufficient to finance the program and will not be due to seek other sources of funding.
As noted, “the budget for next year is only something that is currently constructed.” – Given that we have only the beginning of the second half of the year and tax revenues only part of the year, there is nothing surprising in the fact that I still need 5 billion zł to get this budget. Given the growth rate of tax revenues’m absolutely calm about the fact that these revenues are adequate enough that it will not be here no reason to look for other sources of funding for this program – said the head of the parliamentary finance committee.
Sasin recalled that in line with the government’s VAT revenues this year will be higher by 5.5 billion zł in comparison with the previous year. – And after the first half of the year, these revenues were higher by 4.5 billion zł – said Sasin. Therefore, according to him, can now be estimated that at the end of the year it will be about 10 billion zł more than the proceeds of the previous year.
– Example of the VAT shows that tax revenues are rising and there is no danger for the budget for next year also in the context of the implementation of the program 500+ – said the chairman of the parliamentary commission of public finances.IRS increasingly fierce
In the first half of the tax revenues actually increased year on year. Finance Minister Paul Szałamacha stresses that tax revenues are growing faster than GDP, at a rate of 6-7 percent.
The increase in revenue from VAT amounted to 7.9 percent. year on year, PIT – 8.4 percent. CIT – 2.1 per cent., and the excise tax and gambling tax – 4.9 percent.
In the first half of fiscal controls resulted in the imposition of a tax of 9 6 billion zł. In the corresponding period of 2015 years was 6.1 billion zł, this means, therefore, an increase of 36.6 percent.
or correction were submitted tax returns for the amount of 336.6 billion zł – about 270 percent. more than a year earlier.
“The total value of the payments to the budget related to the findings of auditors and detained payments of undue reimbursement of VAT was in this period, 832 million zł and was 71.3 per cent. higher than in the first half of 2015 r. ” – Announced a few days ago, the Ministry of Finance.
The government assumed the budget for this year, that tax revenues will increase by 6 billion zł, while in May the increase reached 4 billion zł, and thus statistically throughout 2016 years while maintaining the same pace, better tax collection should bring an additional 10 billion zł.
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