1 hour. 30 minutes ago Updated: 25 minutes ago
Economists surveyed by PAP estimated that salary yoy in November increased by 3, 6 per cent., and in monthly terms increased by 1.3 percent.
The average salary excluding payments from profit amounted to 4004.29 zł and yoy increased by 2.7 per cent., as compared to the previous month increased by 0, 6 percent.
GUS also found that the companies were employed in November 5550.8 thousand. people, or yoy employment rose by 0.9 per cent., and in the monthly rose by 0.1 percent.
Analysts forecast that employment grew yoy by 0.8 per cent., While mom grew by 0.1 percent.
As the Confederation Leviathan expert Grazyna Spytek-Bandurska, employment is growing steadily. “In November it was higher by 6.2 thous., Compared with October. Since the beginning of the year has increased by approx. 60 thousand. New jobs also on an annual basis. In November, employment was higher by 0.9 per cent. Compared to the same period last year. Usually, we observed decreases in the autumn of employment or stabilization. This time it’s different, which suggests that companies create new jobs, “- she said.
In her opinion, in the coming months, the situation on the labor market should not be much worse, because more than a quarter of companies declare that they will hire new employees. “The tendency to create jobs is higher than last year and two years ago” – she pointed out.
Analysts BZ Santander Group pay attention to the lower growth of wages in the corporate sector. In their view, this may be due to the situation in the mining sector.
“Despite lower wage growth, the labor market situation is assessed as good. Positive trends should also maintain in the coming months, with low wage pressure. We believe that in the coming months, the average nominal wage growth should be maintained at the level of 3-4 per cent. per year, which, while maintaining deflation (at least until the middle of next year) will mean a significant increase in real purchasing power of wages. This will be a factor supporting private consumption in the coming quarters, “- said in a commentary on Tuesday’s data.
The decline in wage growth in November, also draws attention to the Team Peter Piękoś Economic Analysis and Forecasting Pekao. He also believes that this is due to a decrease in wage growth in the mining industry on the one hand due to the elevated levels recorded in October, on the other hand due to the likely shift barbórkowych bonus payments in December.
He added that Tuesday’s data point to the continued improvement of the situation on the domestic labor market and create jobs, despite a temporary slowdown in the industry.
– – – – –
COMMENT
The latest CSO data shows that nominal wage growth continues to grow at a moderate pace. – However, given the continuing deflation of 0.6 percent, real wage growth is relatively fast – says expert Employers of Poland Lukasz Kozlowski.
The decline in prices does not encourage consumers to make major purchases as much as rising wages in nominal terms . Thus resulting surplus is therefore mainly used to create savings, which is also reflected the data on changes in the value of individuals’ deposits. Though not herald a significant acceleration in retail sales or the strengthening of domestic demand, this provision makes it clear we risk weakening the impact of these factors on economic growth.
With the passage of time, the propensity to consume Poles probably starts to grow, although we can not exclude the fact that prolonged deflation will make that part of the purchase decisions begin to be put aside for later. Refresher in consumer confidence that prices will fall for a long time, can lead – on a self-fulfilling prophecy – a further deepening deflation.
In view of the adverse economic consequences of this phenomenon Polish monetary authorities will probably try to prevent it. Data on employment in the enterprise sector and wage also shows a positive labor market situation in Poland.
Historical experience shows that GDP growth of 3 percent. only allows halting further increase unemployment – meanwhile the percentage of people registered as job seekers already declining at a rate of 1.8 percentage points. per year. This is due to with a large dynamic investment in fixed assets, whose value increases by approx. 10 percent. year on year. Businesses therefore positively assess the prospects of our market and – in preparation for economic recovery – increase employment and capacity.
Lukasz Kozlowski , an expert Employers RP
No comments:
Post a Comment