Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras before entering the yesterday’s meeting of finance ministers of the euro (PHILIPPE Wojażer / REUTERS)
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still ongoing euro zone summit. Euroland considered draconian new conditions, the fulfillment of which would give the Prime Minister Aleksisowi Tsiprasowi chances for the negotiations on the aid. Thus, the road to a happy ending is not closed, but the happy ending still very far away.
Is Grexit may be temporary?
The European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF recognized the reform package Tsipras, who sent Brussels on Thursday, as a good basis to start negotiations on a new program of “reform through cheap loans” for Athens 2018.
But the Eurogroup (eurozone finance ministers) decided over the weekend that is not enough. Many of them was not so much about content, “Tsipras package,” how much of the distrust of the Greeks.
– Why should we believe that they will do what they wrote? – They asked.
The Best of thought was a Frenchman, and pessimism excelled Germany and Fin. Officials of the German Minister Wolfgang Schäuble spread on Saturday document requesting “temporary Grexitu” (eg. For five years) if Athens quickly and does not significantly improve, “Tsipras package”. While Schäuble did not personally raised the idea at the table meeting of the eurogroup, but still everyone in the room read his document. And then the Germans tried to enter blackmail Grexitem to an official statement eurozone summit.
– There is no such thing as a temporary Grexit. Greece either will, or will not be in the euro zone. And France is working on its behalf in the euro area – as French President François Hollande made deals with this idea.
The German media were not able to clearly determine to what extent the ploy of “temporary Gerxitem” was predetermined with Chancellor Angela Merkel . Now there is a growing tension between the hawkish Schäuble and Chancellor who would be ready for some leniency towards the Greeks to keep them in the euro area.
Running the eurogroup deliberations on Saturday suspended at midnight, because Schäuble began to argue with the head of the ECB Mario Draghim.
– You think I’m stupid! – German shouted in the direction of the Italian explaining to him the issues of the default of Greek debt.
Athens will reform an express yourself?
And on Sunday, the ministers agreed that the cure for the lack of confidence in Athens to be demanding that, firstly, an express Greeks (perhaps even to that Wednesday) received the most urgent bill in parliament. This should include On the reform of VAT, blanking early retirement antitrust law. Secondly, the parliament as quickly would give a political agreement on the extension “Tsipras package” including about changes in the labor market to improve elasticity. Thirdly, the deputies would have to agree on a resolution to accelerate or requiring the privatization.
It was in these conditions that the Greeks would return to Brussels, where finance ministers (or the next summit) postanowiliby whether to initiate formal negotiations with Athens on new bailout. The decision to “yes” odwoływałaby Greek alarm. Eurozone summit was held last night on whether to approve the schedule.
Schäuble has pushed the idea of creating the Institute for Sustainable Growth in Luxembourg, to which Greece would give property worth 50 billion euros. This institute, without the participation of Greek politicians, would be privatized and the proceeds earmarked to repay debt.
Until such a profound interference in the sovereignty of Greece aroused enormous resistance, but the idea was to be discussed tonight by the leaders of the 19 eurozone countries.
– I am ready to receive a fair compromise. We can conclude an agreement this evening if they want that all parties – said the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras before the start of the summit.
But if its parliament was to despatch a few days from the vote on fresh demands the eurozone?
The concessions Tsipras – if you compare them with his election promises – are close to surrender. Despite this, “Tsipras package” has gained the vote in the night from Friday to Saturday in support of more than 80 percent. Greece deputies in parliament, because the government in this case supported the pro-EU opposition and even communists. Now opponents Grexitu hope that the same will be with the approval of the new demands of Brussels.
On the other hand, the government of Finland – as signaled in Brussels – could have huge problems obtaining the consent of his parliament on new aid for Greece. Although there is a legal loophole that would circumvent the veto of Helsinki, but so far it has never been used.
How to heal the hole?
Brussels calculations indicate that 82-86 billion budget hole in Greece since August 2015. by the end of July 2018., which should be financed out of a possible new aid program.
The main need it 25 billion euros to recapitalize banks, nearly 18 billion would cost the interest on the current debt of Greece, over 2 billion – payments to the IMF and the Eurozone countries and 7 billion euros for the delays incurred through August (mainly to the IMF and ECB). The document discussed at the summit suggested the possibility of a restructuring of Greek debt by extending the repayment period and lower interest payments.
Why do so many look for?
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