The World Bank updated economic forecasts. Which provides for the Polish? – Polish Radio

In March of this year. The OECD forecasted for Polish growth at levels of 3.4 percent. and 3.5 percent. Photo: Glow Images / East News

In March of this year. The organization predicted for Polish growth at levels of 3.4 percent. and 3.5 percent.

in 2017. however, will accelerate

“We forecast that real GDP growth will accelerate from approx. 3 per cent. in 2016 r. to 3.5 per cent. in 2017.

This will help increase consumption

Rising employment and wages, higher social benefit and low energy prices will support faster growth in consumption.

in 2017. increase or investment

Favorable lending and accelerating infrastructure investments supported by the EU funds in 2017. will also support for stronger investment. We expect a gradual increase in inflation, the stabilization of energy prices and obostrzeniach the labor market “- said the report” OECD Economic Outlook “.

How will increase consumption

the organization predicts that private consumption will grow by 3% this and 3.9% next year, and the public – respectively by 4.7% and 3.7%. It expects a growth in gross fixed capital formation by 1.2% in 2016. And 4.7% in 2017. Effect of net exports to GDP growth will be negative and the amount in those years, respectively -0.2% and – 0.3%.

OECD in 2017. return to inflation

the OECD predicts that deflation this year will reach 0.5% versus 0 9% last year, whereas in 2017. Poland will record inflation of 1.1%.

Unemployment will fall this year to 6.6 percent.

forecasts for the unemployment rate relate to a level of 6.6% this year and 6.3% next year against 7.5% in ub.r.

the deficit in 2017 . exceeds 3 percent

According to the Organization, Poland continues deficit of general government (general government) this year on last year’s level of 2.6% of GDP, but in 2017. not avoid exceeding the EU limit of 3% – OECD predicts this rate of 3.2% of GDP.

the debt of the sector will be – according to the forecasts of the Organization, based on the criteria of Maastricht – 52.3% of GDP in rhyme year and 53.7 % of GDP next year against 51.3% in ub.r.

economist: forecast does not take into account the impact of the program Family 500 +

Chief economist BPS TFI Krzysztof Wołowicz believes, when asked about the opinions of the IAR that the forecast is understated. According to him, the OECD suggested the reading of GDP growth for the first quarter, which amounted to just 3 percent. The expert points out that in the coming quarters will Polish economy among other things, the program Family 500 Plus, which only takes effect.

Ministry of Finance ws. OECD forecast: we expect growth of 3.8 percent.

As we read in the Ministry of Finance issued a statement, the Ministry always closely follows the analysis and forecasts of the OECD. I declare that the published today forecast GDP growth is below market consensus.

The Communication stresses that care experts OECD is particularly evident in the case of 2016. In which they expect real GDP growth at 3.0 per cent., which was 0.6 points. percent. less the result for the previous year. For comparison, the consensus of bank analysts polled by Reuters on 13 May. GDP growth of 3.6 percent.

The finance ministry expects growth of 3.8 percent.

Ministry of Finance, as the National Bank Polish (March inflation Report) expects GDP growth of 3.8 percent.

OECD underestimates the role of household consumption demand

The source of the relative pessimism of experts the OECD seems to be underestimating the scale of the changes in consumer demand of the private sector (mainly. households). OECD forecast in its set up that this demand will increase in real terms in 2016. By 3.0 per cent., Which is exactly the rate that was observed last year.

Meanwhile, already in the first quarter. 2016. growth in real consumption in the household sector amounted to 3.2 percent. y / y. It should be noted that it was a quarter in which not yet emerged Programme 500+ effects, which in the coming months, in addition to a strong improvement observed in the labor market, should provide crucial support to accelerate the pace of growth in consumer demand and, consequently, the GDP growth rate.

ISBnews, IAR, PAP, jk