Approximately six billion every year would take the PiS with banks under the new bank tax. Such loads are known worldwide. In the case of Polish most after its introduction will suffer the holders of shares of banks. The question is whether it will not pay for the customers.
The Law and Justice returned to the idea of introducing a new tax paid by the banks. As announced Beaty Awl it would amount to 0.39 percent of assets held by the banks. Simply put, it means that the tax will be paid, among others, the value of loans. The more the bank will give them, the more tax to pay. In the whole banking sector, this means that – if PiS przeforsuje tax – every year the budget banks will pay about 5-6 billion zlotys. This is roughly one-third of what banks in Poland annually earn “purely”.
| Assets and profits banks listed on the WSE (million zł) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Name | Assets at the end of 2014. | Net profit in 2014 |
| UNICREDIT | 3 613 248 | 8 594 |
| PKO BP | 248 701 | 3 254 |
| Pekao | 167 625 | 2 715 |
| BZ WBK | 134 502 | 1 915 |
| mBank | 117 986 | 1 287 |
| INGBSK | 99 861 | 1 041 |
| Getin | 68 831 | 360 |
| MILLENNIUM | 60 740 | 651 |
| SALES | 49 844 | 947 |
| BANK BPH | 31 607 | 112 |
| ALIOR | 30 168 | 323 |
| BOS | 19 678 | 66 |
Source: Money.pl based on KNF data of the “Report on the situation of banks 2014 “
And although the idea of a tax on banks certainly a lot of people like it, it raises the question of how banks will react to this change. In the end we are talking about the fact that the sector would sail one-third of the profits.
The savings will be safe. tax not endanger
Most importantly from the point of view of odkładających money on deposits in banks – experts say the new tax will not affect the level of safety of savings. Such doubts may arise when we recall that at the end of last year, two Polish banks “were covered” so-called. stress tests. They checked or would cope in the event of a serious economic downturn. In other words, if they have enough equity.
According to Tomasz Bursa, an expert from the banking sector with Opti Capital, bank customers should have no cause for concern. The tax would be imposed not because capitals, and this element of business that brings them profits. However, the problem may occur if banks want to increase lending, which provide more loans and mortgages. – Simply put, the need to simultaneously increase the equity. And in order to do this, they must have something – explains Tomasz Bursa in an interview with Money.pl.
Therefore, according to him, the bank tax in the first place will affect the holders of shares of banks. – Banks will be an increasingly less willing to share profits with shareholders and dividends of the banks may become scarce. Banks will in fact preferred to retain profits and allocate them on increase in equity – says Tomasz Bursa.
It seems that this idea has at the moment come stock market investors who dispose of the shares of banks. Only in the last three months WIG-Banks index on the Warsaw Stock Exchange lost more than 10 percent. His course on Tuesday, July 7 was at the lowest level since September 2013.
Magdalena Komaracka with Erste Securities notes that the bank tax may discourage not only current investors, but also deter potential future actions concerned. – Assuming that the return on assets for holders of shares listed banks is currently 10 percent, after amendment profitability would drop by about one-fifth – predicts director of the department of Erste analysis. The natural way would become more attractive investments in other sectors.
The fall in profits by one-third would result in a simplified decrease in the valuation of banks in similar proportion. Of course, it is assuming that such a tax would be placed permanently. – Sure to be so, because they are easy to download money. A good example is the tax Belka, who was supposed to be temporary assumptions. With profit each pays 19 percent and more of it will not change – says Tomasz Bursa.
Bank customers will pay more? There is such a fear
While deposits remain safe, it raises the question of whether bankers can easily come to terms with the loss of one third of the profits. Of course, not. Therefore, one possible scenario is that customers will incur higher costs from fees and commissions, which already went up.
| Selected financial data for the banking sector in Poland in 2014 (in billion zł) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Selected financial items | 2014 | 2013 | the percentage change |
| Net interest income | 37.0 | 34.6 | 7% |
| Net fee and commission income | 13.5 | 13.4 | 1% |
| Income from banking operations | 57.6 | 55.4 | 4% |
| staff costs | 15.0 | 15.3 | -2% |
| general and administrative expenses | 12.1 | 12.2 | 1% |
| Income tax | 4.0 | 3.5 | 14% |
| Net | 16.0 | 15.0 | 7% |
Source: Money.pl based on GUS
How much more will pay for banking services? The transfer of the total cost to customers is unrealistic. Speaking about billions of dollars. However, if you take the worst-case scenario, the bank tax would be at the level of 0.39 percent, the banks would have to raise borrowing costs at least as much.
Handling fees and commissions would be even more drastic consequences. – Net commission income in the banking sector as a whole is around 13 billion zlotys. Assuming that credit spreads remain unchanged, for the Compensation costs, you will need to increase fees by 50 percent. Speaking about the stakes for keeping accounts, cards, increase foreign exchange spreads. Of course it’s hard at this time accurately estimate, but it shows the scale of the problem – says Tomasz Bursa.
Some banks after the introduction of drastic changes in regulations could also want to get out of the Polish. We are talking about the smallest universal banks that have a relatively low return on assets. This would result in further inconveniences for their customers.
Thomas Bursa adds that the bank tax may also mean that some banks will have to remodel their businesses and to focus on completely different products. Simplifying, due to the fact that much heavier burden on their capital are, eg. Mortgage than a quick loan. In this way, it may be that the weaker banks will have to tightly restrict sales of mortgage loans just on things other products.
It’s harder to get a loan. Waiting slowing economy?
The tax paid on the value of the assets will discourage banks to develop business, because then they will have to pay more. In view of the fact that most of the assets comprise loans, you can expect restrictions on lending.
– certainly in this case, banks will be more selective approach to lending – says Magdalena Komaracka. – Loans yielding the smallest profits will be less likely to be granted. Speaking for example, the portion of low-margin housing loans and loans to companies – adds expert from the banking market.
Does this mean that companies will have limited possibilities for financing, so they will invest less, which will translate into slower economic growth? According to Magdalena Komarackiej is too far-reaching thesis, because there are many other factors affecting the GDP. – In addition, the banks are not the only source of obtaining money by the company. Increasingly, businesses issue bonds, yielding capital directly from investors – expert adds.
No comments:
Post a Comment