– Non-seasonally adjusted GDP (constant average prices of the previous year) increased in real terms by 3.1 percent. compared with the fourth quarter of 2013., which is an improvement of the real dynamics of 0.1 points. percent. compared with the rapid respectful published on 13 February 2015. – Central Statistical Office said on Friday.
GUS: economy gained momentum. GDP up, unemployment down & gt; & gt; & gt;
GUS February 13, according to a quick estimate of GDP Non-seasonally adjusted in the fourth quarter increased by 3 percent. compared to the same period last year. GUS also
on Friday that in the fourth quarter of 2014. seasonally adjusted GDP (at constant prices, reference year 2010) rose by 0.7 per cent in real terms. compared to the previous quar ter and was higher than the previous year by 3.2 percent.
The final result is better than the estimates
– The final estimate for the rate of growth of the CSO economic growth in the last quarter of the previous year, got the better of respect “flash” and consistent with the calculation-based on annual data. Very close to the estimates based on annual data is also the structure of GDP growth. As expected, slightly decelerated growth in household consumption and investment, but they were still very decent levels – says Monika Jacket GUS, chief economist in Bank.
– After the Polish economy slowed down slightly at the end of the previous year, at the beginning of 2015. the growth rate will remain at a similar level. In subsequent quarters, but I expect to see a gradual and gentle acceleration of GDP growth. Further improvement in the labor market, persistent deflation, record low interest rates (which in March will be further reduced), and finally untwisting carousel with EU funds from the 2014-2020 financial perspective will be the main fact ors supporting and consumption, and investment. Domestic demand will remain the main driver of economic growth in Poland, but external demand this year may prove to be supported, if the situation will start to improve in the euro area. I stand by the opinion that Poland’s GDP growth this year is likely to reach 3.5-3.6 percent. – Provides Jacket.
“The bigger surprises was not a”
– Data to be slightly better than expected, but there were no major surprises – says Marcin Mrowiec turn of Bank Pekao SA. “Positive is that the deviations are not up and down, and the current macroeconomic indicators suggest that in 2015 an increase of at least the previous year (3.3 percent.), And if you calm down the situation in the East and the West will accelerate growth and will be dismissed concerns about the sustainability of the euro area (Greece, elections in other major EU countries in the coming months), this increa se is likely to be higher, “- he added.
– Polish GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 2014. was 3.2 percent. – According to the latest CSO data. – Despite the fact that a weaker result than in previous quarters, it turned out to be better than the original estimate. Polish economy mainly driven by investment, which is very positive impact on the situation on the labor market – says Lukasz Kozlowski, an expert Employers of Poland.
Experts also agree that the CSO data are fairly neutral for the MPC in the context of the expected next week decision reduction in interest rates, because rather in line with expectations.
Szczurek: Polish growth of gross domestic product is one of the fastest in the EU
The Minister of Finance Mateusz Szczurek advises that the so-called seasonally adjusted GDP was 3.2 percent in annual terms. It is estimated that this is solid growth, similar to that of previous quarters. Given today estimates do not change budget assumptions for this year.
The increase in Polish gross domestic product, despite some slowdown, the fastest of the European Union. Advantage over other countries gives Poland a big market, independent currency and relatively low debt – finance minister predicted earlier Mateusz Szczurek.
Source: Newseria
Good forecasts
Deloitte expects that in the next two years, Polish economic growth will oscillate in the range of 3.3-3.5 percent. per year. In the second half of 2015 and 2016 years can be a problem among a slowdown in business investment, which will cause the pace of economic growth will slow to about 2.7 percent. Much will depend on the condition of the economies in the world, especially in the European Union.
Poland one of the fastest growing economies in the EU & gt; & gt; & gt;
– Our forecasts have long been fairly stable – Newseria news agency says Rafał Antczak, a member of the Board of Deloitte. – We expect that economic growth in the next two years will fluctuate in the range of 3.3-3.5 percent. Just remember that we are dealing with a flattening of the business cycle. You do not see such a strong investment growth, which could be an impetus for the next cycle of economic recovery.
Investments not grow between the double-digit rate, despite the fact that in the coming years, we will have to deal with a powerful injection of EU funds, which correspond to for even half of the country’s economic growth. According Antczak it proves quite rachitycznym reflection in the Polish economy. As pointed out, more turbulence Poland may feel in the second half of next year and in 2016 years. Investment slowdown could cause the GDP growth rate will decrease to about 2.7 percent. throughout 2016.
– This will probably be the moment to verify that, as far as the Polish economy slowed down when not fall, for example, in the next fiscal problems – notes Antczak. – Because we remember that these problems arise when economic growth in Poland falls below 3 percent.
A lot also depends on how it will proceed revival of economic growth in the euro area and the world.
– Although Poland is mainly aimed at the internal market, the foreign trade, especially during periods of downturn internal frequented engine that accelerates or sustained economic growth – reminds Antczak. – Unfortunately, in the current situation, external factors, eg. In the euro zone are very vague. We know that there is deflation in many countries of recession and recovery is unlikely to occur earlier than in 2016.
The advantage of Polish internal market dimension
According to the economist size Polish internal market is its advantage. Development of most economies in Central and Eastern Europe in fact depends largely on the strength of the external. Last year, the Polish foreign sales accounted for less than 50 percent. GDP, while in Hungary, Slovakia and the Baltic countries was nearly 100 percent.
– Poland has a large domestic market in the form of domestic consumption and a significant share of investments that allow for periods slowdown in slightly different policy, which, moreover, has successfully been used – says Rafał Antczak. – In recent years, however, and especially since 2008, economic growth in Poland hovers closer to 2 percent. And that is the difference, which most economists and entrepreneurs are concerned. Do not we have to deal with the reflection of the increase back to 4-5 per cent., Which would provide an opportunity to revive investment and increased household spending.
IAR / PAP / Newseria, bless
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