Results of the Polish economy in the current environment are more than satisfactory. And this both in terms of economic growth, and of its structure. And it gets better.
In the last quarter of 2014 according to data released today by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the dynamics of Polish Gross Domestic Product (GDP), although slowed down to 3.1 % from 3.3% a quarter earlier, but in this market environment is the result of more than great. And this both in terms of economic growth, and of its structure. In the analyzed period, the dynamics of investments recorded at a fast rate of 9% y / y, exceeding market expectations and noting the result only slightly lower than in the third quarter (9.9% y / y). Domestic demand, which is the main engine of growth, but recorded a growth of 4.6% y / y vs. 4.9% y / y in the previous quarter.
When analyzing the data published by the CSO can be optimistic about the future. Although the current quarter will probably slight slowdown in economic growth in Poland, in the second half of the year we will see the opposite trend. Mainly due to further improvement in domestic demand and export growth accelerated as a result of the expected economic recovery in the euro area. Primarily in Germany, which in our largest trading partner. Therefore, we expect that in the whole 2015 years Polish economy will record a growth rate of at least 3.5% y / y.
published today by the CSO upward revision of GDP data for 3.1% of the estimated pre- 3% does not preclude the reduction of interest rates by the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) at next week’s meeting. At its source is in fact prolonged deflation, rather than weak economic growth. Therefore, we assume further that, according to recent suggestions Marek Belka, the Council this time will be most able to vote on cutting the cost of money by 25 basis points, which will bring the main interest rate to 1.75%. This will also be the only such reduction, followed by a stabilization period of one year in interest, and then they will be increased. Today’s GDP data only realize that monetary easing in March is the process a bit late. This decision should be taken yet by the end of 2014 years.
The Golden practically did not react to the upward revision of GDP data. Today slightly loses its value against the euro and the dollar strengthened, odreagowując yesterday’s moves. In the second half of the Polish currency will remain primarily under the influence of foreign impulses. These in turn will be shaped largely by macroeconomic data releases from the US. Investors know revised reading of US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014 years (forecast: 2.1%) and the Chicago PMI index for February (forecast: 58 pts.) And the University of Michigan (forecast: 94 pts.).
Commentary prepared
Marcin Kiepas
Head of Research
Admiral Markets Branch in Poland
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