GUS: in January, employment rose by 1.2 per cent., And wages by 3.6 percent. , photo:
Given the January decline in prices that year-on-year was 1.3 percent, real wage growth is higher.
According to the data, except that companies create new jobs. Last month, employment in enterprises amounted to more than 5 million 570 thousand people, which was 1.2 percent higher than at the same time 2014 years.
The job market will see further improvements
Tuesday GUS from the labor market are encouraging – explains Piotr Bielski BZ WBK economist. – Show that despite all adversities, unfavorable information from abroad, fears of a Ukrainian and Greece, Polish forms still employ workers and increase wages. Meanwhile, deflation deepens. This means that in real terms in the portfolios of Poles money arrives in a fairly rapid pace. This will allow a further increase in consumption. This is information that can be moderately optimistic about the economic growth this year – says the expert
situation in companies, according to economists improved mainly due to the internal market, but also in new export orders. Companies plan to increase employment, which is very important from the point of view of the entire economy.
“It’s a pretty solid growth”
Peter Kuczynski with Xelion Investment House estimates it’s pretty solid growth, especially if we add to this the January decline in prices – 1.3 percent. In his opinion, also in the subsequent months, the situation may be bad. This is evidenced, among other things leading indicators.
expects economic improvement beyond the borders of our country – for example, in Germany, which is our main trading partner. It all should have a positive impact on wages, but it will not be crazy growth because businesses will continue to be very careful – notes the analyst.
Stable employment growth
– Data on employment, although different from the consensus estimate amounting to 1.5 percent. yoy, hardly surprising, for in January, reporting a change in the group of companies, which is usually a source of unexpected results. In this context, at the forefront of the stabilization wage growth, the size of which turned out to be close to the median market forecast (3.3 percent. Yoy). It should be emphasized that, with record low inflation recorded the results provide a very high increase in the real wage bill, the annual growth rate of more than 6 percent .. Higher disposable income of households will provide adequate stimulu s to consumption growth – says Peter Dmitrowski BGK analysis. – From the point of view of the MPC, the data may lead to caution in terms of easing monetary policy parameters. Indicate that the risk of a deflationary spiral is negligible, and the current conditions (high growth of disposable income), no need for extra boost domestic demand. The favorable expectations on lower than results from the position of the rock FRA curve reduction of the reference rate (50 bp.). We maintain our forecast that the next meetings of the Council decides not to cut deeper than 25 bp. – He added.
The better than expected
Monika Jacket, Post Bank chief economist, in his commentary on these results points out that the increase in the average wage in enterprise sector in January is higher than market expectations of 3.3 percent. year on year (y / y). Also notes that the average employment in the enterprise sector increased by 1.2 percent. y / y compared with a rise of 1.1 percent. y / y in the previous month and expected growth of 1.5 percent. y / y.
– wage growth in enterprises in the first month of this year. accelerated in nominal terms, despite the lower number of working days (both compared to the previous month and from January of the previous year), and likely shifts in bonus payments and other additives in the mining industry (in connection with the protests). So it is a positive surprise. In real terms, wages grew by 6.5 percent. y / y, which is the best result since October 2008. Are also positive employment data that another month has accelerated, although in this case the expectations were a little higher – says Jacket.
her opinion later this year, the situation on the labor market should continue to improve moderately. In conjunction with persistent deflation in Poland will be an important factor supporting consumption – emphasizes Jacket.
consumption should grow
Also Adam Antoniak, senior economist at Bank Pekao stresses that the labor market situation remains favorable and should support further “solid growth in consumption.”
– The labor market remains one of the highlights of the Polish economy in recent quarters, noting the systematic improvement, although still moderate economic growth. As a result, household consumption prospects for 2015. Positively shape and should be a major factor for economic growth this year. Nevertheless, you can not see signals of demand pressure on prices. Declines in energy commodity prices may cause secondary effects when pushing i nflation to return to the NBP – selects Antoniak. – In such a situation, we expect that in March the MPC cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and a further easing of monetary policy in the coming months as it can not be ruled out – he added.
Good outlook for the full year
Last year was good from the point of view of the labor market – was falling unemployment and rising wages, especially in real terms. 2015 may be just as good or even better.
According to Marta Petka-Zagajewski of Poland Raiffeisen Polbank no danger of deflation despite downward pressure on wages, and in addition to a decrease in unemployment statistics should start to show a clear increase in employment.
GUS: employment and wages up tight. The average wage in December was 4379.26 zł
– The dynamics of wage growth is projected to remain above 3 per cent., Between 3-4 percent. year on year – Newseria news agency says Marta Petka-Zagajewska, chief economist of Raiffeisen Polbank. – January is surprising because it is an interesting month in terms of statistics. Firstly, the Central Statistical Office database of corporate changes, which are the source of the data, so this factor alone makes these figures may differ from expectations. Second, between January and December in different years are arranged differently sundries payment of salaries and bonuses that quite strongly interfere with the data.
For the labor market was already a pretty good 2014 years
The average salary in enterprises in December was higher by 3.2 percent. (Almost 160 zł) than the year before, and during the year, prices fell by 1.3 percent. At the same time, with rising wages last year was continuously falling unemployment. According to the CSO in December it amounted to 11.5 per cent., Falling from 13.4 percent. in December 2013. This means that at the end of the year without a job in Poland was more than 1.8 million people. But jobs were coming slowly. In December, the work was about 58 thousand. people more than the previous year (1.1 percent.).
– For the full 2015 years, we will have to deal with a significantly higher rate of employment growth than it did in 2014 – says Marta Petka-Zagajewska . – This is the aftermath of what has long been observed in clinical situation that entrepreneurs are optimistic tuned, they see an increase in demand, and thus more likely to increase employment in their companies.
Deflation is a threat
This phenomenon should – in her opinion – also reflect in the statistics, because GUS examines companies employing more than 9 people, including in comparison with the previous year should be much more. The increasing deflation but also entails certain risks. Prices are falling, so the weaker the profits of producers, therefore, they can begin to look for savings in salary. According to Marta Petka-Zagajewski, however, a theoretical threat.
– It is dangerous, because that testified to the fact that the economy is born something I often say the members of the Monetary Policy Council, calling it a deflationary spiral – emphasizes the chief economist of Raiffeisen Polbank. – It’s a mechanism in which the economy increasingly will plunge into deflation, because these data are important also from the standpoint of the later decision of the MPC. By contrast, if we assume that nothing will happen.
The Polish economy, however, becomes more and more friendly staff. As pointed out by Petka-Zagajewska, the data should tuned optimistic.
– First, they must show that increasing our employment, ie. More Poles have a job, on the other hand, for this work are receiving more and higher wages – evaluate Marta Petka-Zagajewska Raiffeisen Polbank. – Maybe the 3-percent. wage growth in nominal terms do not confer dizzy, but you must remember that the other side we have more and deeper deflation, so that in real terms, our average salaries increased by about 5 per cent., and is already a substantial boost to household budgets .
Good data as of December
In December, the average gross salary in enterprises employing more than 9 persons amounted to 4379.26 dollars. These data are better than expected by analysts. Most of them are expected to grow close to 3 percent.
Employment in December was close to 5 million 550 thousand people, or 1.1 percent more than last year at the same time and the same as in November.
GUS very positively surprised, believes Piotr Bielski, economist of BZ WBK.
– CSO data showed that companies employ further, which means that they do not lose their optimism, despite the difficult environment abroad. You can see that this translates to a gradually rising wages. This means that the Poles have more money in their wallets, can therefore spend more – says Piotr Bielski.
IAR, PAP, Newseria, abo
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