Chairman of Fitch Poland: there is confusion around the Polish. Some people wait for such occasions – TVN24 BiS

– No confusion is not beneficial for most investors. Although there are those who are just waiting for such occasions – said on TVN24 BiS Piotr Kowalski, president of Fitch Poland. Agency is expected to announce a decision on the rating of Polish July 15, and today lowered its forecast of GDP growth.

Fitch downgraded growth forecasts for the Polish GDP in 2016 from 3.5 percent. to 3.2 percent. He reported that it expected a slightly higher public sector deficit Polish, which it believes will be 2.8 percent. in 2016 of 3.0 percent. next year.

In turn, the government assumes that the deficit will be 2.6 percent. Of GDP in 2016 and 2.9 percent. Of GDP in 2017. GDP growth is projected at 3.8 percent. this year, and 3.9 percent. in the future.

– We were always a little lower than the forecast of the government, because the estimated results for the first quarter are slightly worse than expected. We have updated our forecast, but also stressed that as long as 3 percent barrier. the deficit is not exceeded. From this point of view, there is a particular danger – explained Smith.

According to him, the key question is: how will finance government programs? – At the moment there is not enough information on this subject. The positive is that the main element of fiscal policy will be to maintain the budget deficit at 3 percent. or less. Several times stressed that it is for us one of the most important factors when updating the assessment – he said.

Smith did not want to speculate on what will be the rating agencies. – Fortunately, I do not take part in the work of the rating committee, so I can not comment on this issue – he stressed. Such a decision usually takes 5 to 7 analysts. – A similar composition will be at the next committee, which will update the rating in July – said Smith.

He admitted, however, that there is “some confusion around the Polish”. – First, no confusion is not beneficial for most investors. Although there are those who are just waiting for such occasions. Secondly, if you look at investing in Polish debt rather you not see any colossal difference in approach – he explained.

As acknowledged guest TVN24 BIS, “the most important is the assessment itself.” – There is a big difference between the approach of investors to entities that are lower than those of higher categories. Poland currently has from two agencies (Moody’s and Fitch – ed.), Rating fairly high, so it is most important. Perspective is a signal that maybe something will happen in the period of 18-24 months – explained.

Moody’s last weekend lowered the Polish perspective, but the rating remained unchanged.