For us exciting session. Investors with the WSE had to react to the decision of Moody’s rating on Polish. Changing the same perspective, the assessment of the creditworthiness of our country meant that all segments of the Polish stock market recorded strong growth. Monday also passed under the sign of reaction to the latest results of listed companies.
Especially interesting was the start of trading, when was appointed the direction of change. For the rest of the session, investors rebuys shares, which resulted in further increases in the indices. Finally WIG20 gained 2.12 percent, and its value is 1,853.78 points. It thus reached the levels where the last time he was seen on May 9. Quite a few also gained mWIG40 and sWIG80. The smaller scale of the rise is a result of lower depreciation, which experienced two indicator pending the decision of the rating agency.
Finally, none of the major companies has not ended Monday’s session in the red. The smallest increase passed a fuel company Lotos and PKN Orlen. The decrease in share prices likely effect of soaring oil, which is the cost for both companies. At the other end of the scale was KGHM (5.06 percent), which has benefited from soaring copper. Investors did not disturb even the poor performance of the company. Net profit fell by almost 60 percent year on year.
In the middle of the pack was the company Enea, who before the start of trading on Monday praised the quarterly results. The company earned in the first quarter of this year 290 million. That’s about 25 million more compared to the same period of the previous year. Higher revenue was also.
In the segment of medium-sized companies should pay attention to Emperia (- 5.28 per cent) – the owner of, among others, Daisy chain stores – whose results disappointed investors. Net profit fell in the first quarter to 7.59 million, compared to 18.81 million in the same period a year earlier. This caused that it is Monday the worst company in the index mWIG40. He does not show off the biggest freight rail carrier in Poland – PKP Cargo (- 3.95 percent). In this case also blamed for the results.
It was also noted on the company ZE PAK. Owned by, among others, to Zygmunt Solorz-Zak energy company earned in the first quarter of 74 million, the projected profit of 31 million. As a result, its shares have risen nearly 28 percent.
On the other European markets, little has happened today. Mainly due to the small amount of macroeconomic data and the absence of some investors. Because of the Whitsun free were among Germans, Hungarians and Swiss. A slightly positive territory session ended British FTSE100 and the Italian FTSE-MIB. “Below the line” was included while the French CAC and the exchange of the Iberian peninsula.
After two hours of trading on Wall Street indexes gaining more than 0.8 percent. Good mood to rebound after Friday’s declines. Monday’s data from overseas even though they were not too good, it does not spoil the mood of investors.
WSE still at the helm. Wall Street also up
Przemysław Lawrowski
Warsaw the stock market is still a top student among European bourses. The new week began with the increases also the US stock market. Number published on Monday macroeconomic data does not spoil investors.
WIG20 gained more than 2 percent due to better-than-expected decision on the Moody’s rating Polish. Among the blue chips lost only company CCC. On the other hand, it is best KGHM, which on Friday evening praised the results. Company gains despite weaker quarterly data. The net result of copper companies decreased by 59 percent. and amounted to 161 million zł. The company also helps Rise in prices of copper.
The growth can also be seen at the start of Monday’s session on Wall Street. The main indices gaining about 0.3 percent, which can be defined as a rebound after Friday’s declines.
Calendar of macroeconomic does not spoil today investors. The situation is slightly rescue afternoon publication from overseas, but hard to tell that they have a considerable impact on the market.
A14: 30 met the reading index NY Empier State, which shows activity in the manufacturing sector in the New York area. The result was much weaker than forecast (published value: -9 pts .; forecasted 6.5 points).
WSE best in the world. Deep breath after Moody’s
Jacek Frączyk
Nearly two per cent WIG20 growth is today the best score in the world. We try to match only the Moscow Stock Exchange.
In the middle of the stock exchange on the Warsaw Stock Exchange is unmatched around the globe. WIG20 gained more than two percent. At that time, in the absence of investors from Germany, most of Europe is falling. British FTSE100 -0.4 per cent., The French CAC40 -0.8 per cent., And the Italian FTSE MIB oscillates around zero.
We try to match the stock exchange in Moscow. RTSI index rising 1.6 percent. of course, in response to upward movement of the oil price. Brent gained 2 percent today. and attacks level 49 dollars per barrel, levels unseen in global stock markets since November 2015.
The price of oil may have other consequences. Low inflation rates are currently based on weak crude – now can move briskly up. Meanwhile, monetary policy most countries is focused on deflation. Oil affects the range of prices of other goods (transport), so the appearance of inflation may lead to a jerky movements of central banks. The more nervous, we have the world’s giant overhang dodrukowanego money.
Calm after Moody’s
Meanwhile, Polish calm. Stock market gains, gold strengthened more than 1 percent. the dollar and nearly 1 percent. the euro, the profitability of Treasury 10-year bonds fell by 0.8 percentage point.
This shows the great importance attributed to the assessment of Moody’s, and that the downgrade was priced in. Now the market will be strongly sensitive to macroeconomic data – key on Wednesday (labor market) and Thursday (retail sales and industrial production). Possible stumbling our economy will give the speculation about the use of perspective, negative by Moody’s.
The interest of investors gathered around KGHM (+4.0 per cent.), PKN Orlen (+1.2 per cent.) And PKO BP (+ 3.9 percent.).
WSE after the rating up. Shareholders of KGHM satisfied
Jacek Frączyk
Dips profits KGHM in the first quarter is not frightened investors. On the contrary. We expected worse data. The decrease in expenses helped.
Despite more than dwudziestoprocentowego decline in copper prices also went down unit costs of production of the metal in KGHM. This allows you to maintain net profitability of the plant above zero. And this is enough to satisfy investors today.
KGHM went more than 4 percent. up after the first hour of the session. The company is the engine of growth of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Today’s copper prices are little impact – metal gaining in London only 0.1 percent.
The interest in the market has also attracted PKO BP (+2.9 percent). – Helped results a week ago, ie. Pretty good profits of the bank in the context of a tax on financial institutions.
the third place in terms of turnover is listed Eurocash (+0.1 percent.). Here you deal with everyday market Friday 4.5 percent slump after the information is only 2 million zł net profit in the first three months of the year. Exchange does not consoled 47-million-dollar quarterly profits EBITDA presented on Friday – a year earlier was 42 million zł in the black.
As expected grow too large shares of other banks: Pekao (+1.8 percent). BZ WBK (+2.5 per cent.) and mBank (2.4 percent.). The WIG20 index for the gains 1.7 percent.
As a reminder here that BZ WBK today paid a hefty dividend, which may affect his standing – part of the acquired cash probably returned to the stock exchange, because no where to stick in times of historically low interest rates as not “dywidendo-Dajna” company?
exchanges in Asia and Europe
Quotations very optimistic ended Asia. Shanghai Composite gained 0.8 per cent., And the Japanese Nikkei225 0.3 percent.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suggested a joint plan G7 planned fiscal stimulus. Instead of adding another handful of empty money to be reduced load economy taxes. I wanted to say – why only now?
In China, the mood improved exchange market regulator who denied that he had to end the program raising capital and mergers and acquisitions in four industrial sectors. Such information appeared in the press on Friday.
In Europe, in the absence of quotations in Germany (Pentecost), attention is focused on London (FTSE100 decline by 0.2 per cent.). The upcoming vote on Brexit, coupled with increasingly worse for the European idea of community (at least in the present understanding of the community) surveys (prevalence 46 to 44 in the last survey), make the stock market is getting more nervous.
better quotations appear in France (CAC40 decline by 0.3 per cent.) and much worse in Italy (FTSE MIB lost 0.8 percent.).
In the case of the latter country are continued concerns about the survival of the banking system . Emissions rescue eighth largest domestic bank Popolare di Vicenza took only a special assistance fund Atlante, which currently has 99.3 percent. action. No willing to risk the presence of capital in the sector does not improve mood and after almost 3 percent. lose today, shares of UBI and Unicredit (the owner of the leading package Pekao).
Poland after Moody’s. The world looks at the Fed
Jacek Frączyk
Week starts with a new perspective of the rating agencies Moody’s and knowledge of weaker than expected economic performance of the first quarter. Although the two opposing signals, after three weeks of declines on the Warsaw stock market reaction should be positive.
Moody’s contrary to expectations, has not changed its credit rating on the Polish worse, and set only the lower perspective, ie. From stable to negative. This means that the analysis of the subject will now be more closely growing government spending and revenues to cover their budget. Each swing down rates can cause a reaction.
That, unfortunately, came the swing. Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter turned out to be, according to preliminary calculations, much weaker than expected. Instead, the dynamics of 3.5 percent estimated by analysts, we have only 3 percent. Read more
The slowdown may have consequences for the budget, and thus for opportunities in the future to repay the interest on przyrastającego debt.
The reasons for downgrading the credibility of Polish are political, but Moody’s in addition przepychanki around the Constitutional Court is interested mainly among frankowiczowa planned law, or raise the amount of tax-free income. These elements will be reflected in the budget deficit.
The first reactions to reduce only the outlook were very good. Decreased profitability of our government bond below 3 percent. the first time in a month and strengthened gold: the dollar by 0.6 per cent., and the euro by 0.5 percent. Cutting the rating was in the prices, so the market had to correct the fact that the rating change is so illusory moment.
Just to be on the stock exchange. Three weeks of declines by more than 2 percent. a week is a result worse than the trends in the world just by coming term assessment of Moody’s. Now the market breathe, and the most important will be the data from the economy.
These are, as mentioned above, in the first quarter worse. Stock quotes uphold the will, however, rates of banks. After the results of the largest of them for the first three months, it turns out that the bank tax has been largely nadrobiony increased interest margin, so the stability of the profits of the financial system has been temporarily disrupted – for all paying customers. As usual in any form of tax increases.
Events of the week
The highlight of last week in the financial markets was the publication of better than expected US data, which indicate a strong, the strongest in over a year, the increase in retail sales in April. These data may prove to be an argument for raising the interest rates by the Fed at its next meeting.
Monday we will start on the stock exchange without the participation of Germany. Pentecost is the day off with our western neighbor. Day anyway there will be full of important macroeconomic data. As important in the world can be considered only indicator of production from the region of New York (14:30), ie NY Empire State index. It is estimated positive trend, albeit weaker than in the previous month.
Much more exciting is Tuesday. We start with industrial production in Japan in March (forecast growth of 3.6 percent. Month-on-month, the same as a month earlier), and then the inflation rates for the UK and USA. Estimates show that prices in the US were to budge in April, up by 0.3 percent. in comparison with March. In the context of the dynamics of retail sales may be another contribution to the consideration of the probability of rate hikes in interest rates. Temporarily market is estimated only one, and in December, but the real figures may change a lot.
During the day, also data on foreign trade in the euro area – March trade balance is projected to reach 22.5 billion euros , compared with 19 billion euros in February.
a Day in the macro data we end industrial production in the US, three speeches by FOMC members and weekly data on stocks of fuel according to API.
Analysts estimate that in April, the dynamics of industries in the US was 0.3 per cent – a month earlier was a regression of 0.6 percent and capacity utilization to be at 75 per cent. (Similar to what Poland), ie. By 0.2 percentage point higher than in March.
Wednesday it continued knowledge about the economy of Japan. It begins with the GDP data for the first quarter (forecast 0.2 per cent. Increase year on year). Then we have the data from the labor market in the UK, which may suggest future (ie. Poreferendalną) abstinence Bank of England regarding interest rates.
About 14:00 there will be information from the Polish labor market – forecast growth of wages 3.8 per cent., and employment by 2.8 percent. Every year. At the end of the day we get the more reliable data (than those with API) for weekly fuel stocks from the Energy Information Administration.
No, and – last but not least – the FOMC meeting. Although the rate hike will not be considered – the earliest in June – are messages that central bankers will be carefully analyzed.
Thursday begin the data from the labor market in Australia, then we will learn a lot about retail sales in the UK. Another contribution to the future halting interest rate hikes may be here forecast the dynamics of 2.5 percent year-on-year in April.
About 14:00 we will know a similar data for Polish. Retail sales were with us in April increased by 3.4 percent. year-on-year, according to analysts’ estimates. It would be quite significant rebound from the March only 0.8 percent growth rate, which swayed GDP growth. For embellishment also we get data on Polish industrial production, which was estimated in April to go hand in hand with retail sales, which is expected to grow by 3.5 percent. year-on-year.
Half an hour after the Polish indicator will appear on the data, or index industrial Fed for Philadelphia. And at the end we get a speech member of the FOMC (Dudley).
Friday will be extremely quiet in terms of macro data by the standards of the past few weeks. With no major data flutter will have data on foreign trade the euro zone, the economic situation in Poland, the sale of homes in the US, and inflation in Canada.
A series of quarterly reports from Polish
Monday for Polish investors is a series of quarterly reports from those companies that leave this issue at the last minute. The most important are given before the session – we already have data loss with PKP Cargo (-66 million zł, profit of 22 million zł year earlier), profit Bogdanka (54 million zł, a year earlier 33 million zł) and Enea (273 million zł, a year earlier 263 mln zł).
After afternoon data from Friday somber mood may prevail among the shareholders of KGHM. Revenues from the sale of the group in the first quarter reached 3.91 billion zł, an increase of nearly 0.8 billion zł less than a year earlier. This resulted in significantly lower earnings – net profit fell to 161 million from 397 million zł zł.
Copper production increased to 181 thousand. tons to 176 thousand. tons a year earlier, mainly due to mines Robinson and Sierra Gorda. The unit cost of copper production fell by 13 percent. y / y, mainly due to the increase in the volume of copper and associated metals. In terms of trading and courses with the same period of 2015. Cost would be lower by 9 percent.
On Monday, shareholders of BZ WBK will hit 1.3 billion dividend zł (13 zł per share), after a two-year break. 0.24 billion zł pay too Zywiec (23 zł per share). We’ll see if some of that money will go back into the market.
On Tuesday, interesting will be the quarterly results of US retailers, namely Wal-Mart and Home Depot. Will be given before the opening session on Wall Street.
This will also be the first day of subscriptions for shares Cognor after 0.97 zł per unit. Enrollment will continue until June 16, so there is plenty of time to think. The current exchange rate is 1.21 zł, the price is not so attractive, the lowest possible.
the above text is an expression of personal opinion and the views of the author and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
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