If the franc came to 4.5 zł and remained at a similar level for about two years, the portfolio of loans denominated in Swiss currency would begin to deteriorate. But compared to the annual profits of the banking sector losses would not be high – according to estimates Polish National Bank . NBP presented them in a recent report on the stability of the financial system. According to the analysis in two years, banks would have to make additional provisions for bad loans francs worth 2 billion zł. For this would affect half a billion credits that already have the status of non-performing loans. For comparison: in the first 11 months of last year, the net profit of the banking sector exceeded 15 billion zł.
– This scenario had departed upward course. Because gold is strengthened, it actually copies will be much less or even none at all will not – says Jacek Osinski, director of the department of financial stability at the NBP.
This does not mean however, that the problem is not with the loans. Appreciation of the Swiss franc caused eg. Increase the liquidity needs of the banking sector. NBP, assuming that the franc would amount to 4.2 zł, it is estimated at 13.5 billion zł. And as expressed in gold value of foreign currency loans grew (by Andrzej Jakubiak, head of the Financial Supervision Commission to zł 157 billion), the banks fell capital ratios – the basic security measure that shows the ratio of equity to risk-weighted assets. According to the National Bank of Poland, the decrease was approx. 0.5 percentage points. According to data from the Financial Supervision Authority, at the end of September 2014. Average capital ratio was 14.9 in banks percent.
This is the situation from the perspective of the banks. And for customers? Here NBP reassures that the current repayment should not be a major problem, because the growth rate is compensated by a decrease in interest rates in Switzerland. Further helps to increase revenue, which took place in recent years. In 2006-2007, the average loan installment in Swiss francs accounted for almost 60 per cent. the average wage in the corporate sector. In January – after a noticeable increase – it was 50-52 percent. In this case, the Frankowicz is – on average speaking – people wealthier than those who repay their loans in dollars. Based on CSO data for 2013. NBP has calculated that in the first group, the proportion earning more than 10 thousand. zł per month is 10 percentage points. higher than among borrowers zloty. – 86 per cent. households who took loans in Swiss francs, no income higher than the national averag e – adds Osinski.
The remaining outstanding amount of the loan is a different story. – We estimate that for all loans in Swiss francs in 2007. Ratio of debt to the value of the security is better now than at the time of payment of the loan. To approx. 28 percent. the percentage of loans grew frankowych, where the ratio of debt to exceed 100 percent secure. – lists the director of the NBP.
Andrzej Jakubiak said yesterday at a meeting of the parliamentary commission of public finances, that there are some loans, where the debt is 150-160 percent. value of the property.
Regardless of the analysis of the potential impact of the strengthening of the franc NBP presented in the report on the stability of the simulation, the impact on the safety of the banking sector would have a sudden downturn in our economy (if, instead of the expected growth of 3 , 0-3,3 per cent. in the next two years, GDP grew by only 1.6 percent. This and 0.4 per cent. in the next year), backed by a market shock – a large drop in the zloty, bond prices like. such a scenario, the shock of our capital needs of the banking sector was estimated at 1.9 billion zł. At the end of September last year capital banks operating in Poland amounted to almost 140 billion zł.
NBP believes that our financial sector is stable. – The only segment where there are no improvements, but deterioration, are cooperative savings and credit. Its difficult situation, however, is not systemic risk, which we understand the lack of continuity in the provision of financial services to the economy – reserves Jacek Osinski. Credit unions are not directly a big trouble, because they have a small share of the overall financial system, and in addition to the services offered by them can be replaced by the banks. But indirectly have some effect: incurred by the Bank Guarantee Fund spending on the restructuring of this sector was one of the reasons that this year the contribution to BFG increased, which will reduce the profits of the banking sector.
Continued restructuring CU sector is one of the measures recommended by the NBP to improve the safety of the financial system. Among the recommendations is also adopting the law on Board. Systemic Risk, as well as restructuring and orderly liquidation of banks, as well as the functioning of cooperative banks.
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