2015-02-14 13:00 [Photo: EAST NEWS] 
According to experts, the chances of success of the talks to renegotiate the Yamal contract are slim. They draw attention to the situation on the markets for oil and gas, the political situation, as well as the condition of the Russian exporter.
The ability to engage in discussions gave so. negotiating window, which opened in November last. year. This term has been agreed two years ago, when the PGNiG and Gazprom concluded an annex to the Yamal contract. The window is open for half a year, so to May this year. companies have the time I get on.
Can a to communicate?
Member of the Board for. Operational Energy Group Hermes Piotr Kasprzak said, that in the current situation, rather difficult to expect that PGNiG manage to renegotiate the price with Gazprom, the current negotiating window . – In our opinion, the case probably will go to arbitration – he said.
Arbitration bogey worked during the renegotiation of the contract with the Russian supplier in February 2012., When the Polish company filed a lawsuit before the Court of Arbitration against Gazprom Export. Its purpose was, among others, change pricing conditions in long-term contract for the supply of gas, which concluded in September 1996. When Gazprom agreed to change the conditions in November PGNiG withdrew the lawsuit. Polish company was not the only customer of the Russian company, which decided to arbitration – similar decisions made by German giants E.ON and RWE. The price reduction to Gazprom were also other European companies, including from France, Italy and Bulgaria, and it received.
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The then Minister of the Treasury Mikołaj Budzanowski said: The strategy negotiation, based on arbitration, produced tangible results. The dispute ended earlier by agreement, and its effects will accomplish all the goals. It’s about a positive change gas prices for the 18 million Poles and Polish companies . Then head of the company Grazyna Piotrowska-Oliwa she added that the agreement on the addendum to the contract price reduction achieved Yamal gas from Gazprom by more than 10 percent.
What motion Gazprom will do?
IB Analyst Pekao Pawluk Josephus says that in the current round of talks spectrum arbitration rather not work. Gazprom has problems mainly due to loosening of restrictions and global oil markets. On subsequent loss of income can hardly afford. At the end of January. Russian giant announced that its profits after three quarters. year decreased by 37 percent.
– The likelihood of successful completion of these negotiations is derived from the price of oil. The price is lower, the probability is less – PAP Pawluk said.
– From the point of view of Gazprom reconcile herself – in these parameters we have today – on any changes in contracts which would render those prices still fall, look like suicide. I do not think that Gazprom was willing to reduce the price, and that there was a repeat of 2012. Now we are dealing with a completely different political context and market – he added.
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As explained in the public domain even though there is no official information about what amount of gas in the Yamal contract is indexed to the price of oil, however – as he said – any part of the price you would pay for gas, PGNiG, depends on the average price of oil over the past nine months .
Apogee declines oil prices
As explained, this means that in a situation where we have to deal with the apogee started in August ub.r . declines in oil prices, it can be assumed with high probability that in the fourth quarter of 2015. PGNiG will pay for gas at the best prices. Although – as he said – you need to take into account the dollar, in which the transaction is settled. The dollar is stronger, the higher the cost for PGNiG.
– The situation in the oil market means that the worst time for Gazprom is still ahead of them. You should be aware that their (Gazprom) financial comfort will be worse, at least for the next four quarters. From quarter to quarter in 2015. Gazprom will be weaker results – he added.
– It’s hard to imagine a manager in a company that is facing a very difficult time to agree to at lower prices. This is not the time now wglądałoby a shot in the foot – he said. He emphasized that we must remember that the contract with PGNiG Gazprom is not particularly great, and any concessions would be a signal to the markets.
– Any arbitration may be pulling a year or two or three, and is now probably the worst time for the oil price, you can probably assume that the price of oil and the price of gas for it to bounce and even if the arbitration award a thing, is a company (Gazprom) will function already in a much more environmentally friendly. Bogey in the form of the penalty zasądzanej by arbitration does not work – predicts analyst.
Independent analyst Andrew Szczęśniak fuel market is also skeptical about the possibility of reaching agreement in the negotiation window. – PGNiG position in these negotiations is very poor – the relationship with Gazprom is terrible, this happens very bad political climate – he said. In his opinion on these fatal relations received September incident .
Orders PGNiG increased by 75 percent.
This is a restriction in the first half of September last year gas supply in relation to contracts which at one point reached 45 percent. Previously, however, PGNiG significantly increased daily orders. The data Gaz-System on the operation of gas transmission pipelines showed that in the first decade of September contract PGNiG increased by about 75 percent. Drozdowicze on the border with Ukraine and by almost 100 percent. in Wysokoje on the border with Belarus.
In contrast, the flow of gas through the Drozdowicze remained more or less stable at the beginning of the month, and Wysokoje increased by about 40 per cent., Which, however, did not compensate for the higher orders. In November PGNiG informed about obtaining compensation for the price of gas for the period of supply constraints from the East. According Szczesniak, though PGNiG received compensation, but this issue is very deteriorated relations between companies. They are now icy – he says.
A spokeswoman Dorothy Gajewska PGNiG noted that the talks between the parties are ongoing. – The decision – which we gave in the press release – may be referred to arbitration only when the outcome of the negotiations will not be satisfactory for PGNiG – she said.
The Yamal renegotiated contract includes the supply of gas by 2022 r., inclusive, in an amount to 10.2 billion cubic meters. per year. Gazprom remains the most important gas supplier PGNiG, a Polish company is one of the largest consumers of gas supplied by Gazprom to the European Union.
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