At the end of last year in the labor offices across the country were registered a total of almost 84 thousand. unemployed people aged 60 years and over. This means that in 12 months came to them as much as 15 percent. At the same time the worst result since 2000, when they began to collect accurate data on this age group. Dramatic situation also adds that in all other age groups, unemployment is falling: in the case of persons between 18 and 24 years of age shrank by one quarter.
– This is the effect of an increase in the retirement age – there is no doubt prof . Elizabeth Kryńska, labor market expert at the University of Lodz. He explains that the current seniors is simply more. And companies that need to reduce employment, often in the first place, just get rid of them.
It is true that extending the retirement age to 67 years of age, the government announced additional measures shielding (eg 1 billion per year zł implementation of the modified program 50+), but experts say it will not help unemployed people in their sixties and will continue to arrive. Because the labor market will remain vintages of baby boomers. Then, born approx. 780 thousand. children a year, which is twice more than now.
If you believe research LFS (They also take into account the gray area), in the third quarter. last year, the unemployment rate among people aged 55-64 was only 6.1 percent. It is still a better result than the average for all groups (8.2 percent.), But there is no data for a group of 60+. And until such statistics would show the true picture of the market.
In 2007, the retirement age from 65 to 67 years was raised in Germany, spreading this process for many years. There initially unemployment rate in the age group 60-64 years was 9.1 per cent., In 2013. Drop to 6.3 percent. We unfortunately can be reversed.
The pavement just before retirement
Increased number of unemployed people over 60 years old is a derivative of extending the retirement age and the elimination of early retirement. – A group grows, because previously unemployed basically it was not. People who do not have jobs, they sat on the early retirement and pre-retirement benefits. Stayed in the labor market those who work more rewarding, than to any service – tumaczy Piotr Lewandowski from the Institute of Structural Research.
In 2014. Because of delaying retirement benefits fetch more than 280 thous. fewer people than if retirement limit was not increased. A process that has only just begun. Its effect is also the fact that unemployment statistics were first recorded women. Previously worked for 60 years. To this day, the retirement age in their case was extended by six months.
Two electoral campaigns make this year the issue of reversing changes involving the extension of the retirement age becomes one of the main points of contention. On Saturday, a statement on the matter by Andrzej Duda, PiS candidate for president. He said that if he wins, will submit a bill restoring the previous retirement age.
The implementation of this idea, however, can be difficult. First, the law itself is not enough. For the president of the parliament would have to stand up, and it will depend on the balance of power after the autumn parliamentary elections. Second, the costs would be painful for the budget.
According to government estimates, raising the retirement age will cause the gain on changes in Social Security 4 billion in 2016 zł., Or as soon as possible to introduce changes. The changes are cumulative from year to year. As a result of reforms in 2020. Will leave only 650 thousand. people of working age. If it reversed, would disappear from the market until 1.4 million (and it would be 750 thousand. Retirees more).
State insurer to extend the retirement age is gaining in two ways, because more people will be on the labor market and pays the premium. Thereby grow its revenues. On the other hand, because the Poles then goes into retirement, spending rises more slowly. Therefore, reducing the deficit in the Social Insurance Fund. Already in 2020. Because of changes to be lower by about 12 billion zł. Just as lower budget will therefore grant the SIF.
Moving away from the reform would need to increase the deficit, cut spending or increase revenues. The first possibility is unrealistic, because Poland declares reduce the general government deficit to a level percent of GDP per year. Are also unlikely to be cut on this scale. Therefore, a viable alternative would be an increase in budget revenues, among others, by tax increases, eg. a two percent increase in the VAT rate.
– We can not afford already on the reversal of the reform – says Jakub Borowski, chief economist at Credit Agricole. Fewer people in the labor market also means lower GDP.
In addition, the return to the previous retirement age could have an adverse impact on pensions. – The fact that we live longer, is not subject to administrative decisions, a return to the retirement age in 2011 would cause that benefits would be lower – says Piotr Lewandowski from the Institute of Structural Research. Ultimately, for women, this means a decrease in the replacement rate by several percentage points. For these reasons, the resignation of changes in pensions seems unlikely. The question is, how effective will act curtain. So far are mainly due to modifications introduced in 2008. 50+ program. Introduced additional solutions for people over 60 years of age, for example. Longer grant compensation to the level of half the minimum wage. In addition, there are training for the unemployed and employers. – Paradoxically, is not conducive to a four-year seniors legally guaranteed protection period in which almost can not fire th em – says Sędzimir Carolina, an economist at PKO BP. He adds that some employers parted with employees who are close to this period, because I do not want to have problems with their release in the case if, for example, financial situation worsened their companies.
Entrepreneurs do not want to employ older people also because they are more expensive than younger workers. In Poland, the senior dominates the wage system – pay increases with age. In addition, seniors have trouble with new technologies and the latest in information technology. Those who do work related to physical activity with age are less productive. Many employers also believes that employees should be young, because it affects the image of the company and proves its dynamism.
Although a growing number of unemployed among seniors, the working group is also growing at the age of 55 -64 years. The employment index rose to 43 per cent. from less than 30 in 2008.
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