KE raises economic forecasts for the Polish, the EU and the euro area , photo:
Even in November, the European Commission predicted that the Polish GDP in 2014. Will increase by 3 per cent., While the new estimates show that our economy grew by 3.3 percent. This is the second result in the EU, along with Hungary and Malta. Last year, the fastest growing economy of Ireland; its GDP growth rate was 4.8 percent.
The European Commission also raised growth forecasts for the Polish for 2015. Autumn predicted that the Polish GDP will grow by 2.8 per cent., While now predicts an increase of 3.2 percent. If you anticipate a check, it will be the third after Ireland (3.5 per cent.) And Malta (3.3 percent.) Result in the EU.
– Despite unfavorable external factors, real GDP growth in Poland in 2014 was strong. Economic activity remains robust because it supports reliable steady domestic demand, boosted by improving labor market conditions and increases in real incomes – says the European Commission forecast.
Polish economy immune to geopolitical turmoil
Analysts Commission believe that the weak demand in the euro area and the Ukrainian-Russian crisis will not be reflected on our economy as much as expected earlier.
Moreover, the weakening of the zloty against the currencies of major trading partners as a result of the crisis for our eastern border would help exports and import substitution supported – the European Commission said. – On the other hand, the escalation of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine could harm economic activity through weaker exports and higher gas prices – claimed in the report.
Investment supports cheap money
A positive factor in the reflection of the investments in enterprises according to the European Commission are low cost financing through a series of interest rate cuts. The continuing rise in lending has also encourage further private investment.
Commission expects to export at the beginning of this year will be moderate due to the fact that the repercussions of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine will become more tangible in the euro area will remain weak economic growth.
The share of exports in GDP is expected to decline in the term covered by the forecast
The possible strengthening of the zloty due to having to start loosening monetary policy by the ECB (QE program providing for the purchase of assets with a value of 60 billion per month) can harm the Polish exports. Improve
has to be the situation in the labor market. Unemployment is calculated according to the methodology of the EU is expected to fall from 9.1 percent. in 2014. to 8.8 per cent. this year and 8.3 per cent. 2016. “The Polish labor market should improve due to the robust pace (growth – PAP) activity and increasing production capabilities,” – says the development of the Commission. Better situation on the labor market has in turn translate into an increase in nominal wages and higher incomes, driving consumption.
European Commission also provides for further improvement of the state finance
The government deficit is expected to fall from 3.6 percent. Of GDP in 2014. To 2.9 per cent. this year. In 2016,. The deficit is expected to fall to 2.7 percent.
As analysts note the EC, government revenues will grow along with the development of the economy. On the expenditure side planned restructuring cost mines, as well as the growth of some social spending (higher indexation of pensions) will override savings from other areas, resulting from a partial freeze of wages in the public sector – the report says.
According to the Commission, inflation in Poland last year amounted to 0.1 per cent., and this is expected to be 0.2 percent. In 2016. Our country has come out of this delicate deflation – price growth is expected to reach 1.4 percent then.
EC estimates that the level of public debt in 2015. and 2016. will be slightly less than 50 percent. GDP (respectively 49.9 and 49.8 per cent.). Authors of the study point out that the estimates of the debt ratio are subject to considerable uncertainty, because of the large part of it may be affected by fluctuations in the exchange rate.
European Commission more optimistic ws. Eurozone
The economic growth in the euro zone will reach 1.3 percent of GDP in 2015 and 1.9 per cent. in 2016. – assesses the European Commission published on Thursday economic forecasts. EU-wide GDP growth is expected to be 1.7 percent. in 2015. and 2.1 per cent. in 2016.
According to the EC in 2014. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.8 per cent., and the entire European Union – about 1.3 percent.
latest Commission forecasts are slightly more optimistic than those of November last year. Then, it was estimated that in 2015. Euro area economy will grow at a rate of 1.1 percent. GDP, while the EU economy – 1.5 percent.
According to the EC, inflation in the euro area will be 0.1 percent. this year and 2016. rises to 1.3 percent. For the EU, these indicators will amount to 0.2 percent. and 1.4 percent.
growth returning to Europe
– We expect that for the first time since 2007, the economies of all countries of the European Union once again this year will see a growth – assessed by the Commission. He explained that this will be possible by strengthening internal and external demand, adequate monetary policy and largely neutral fiscal situation.
growth brakes are still weak level of investment and high unemployment. “However, since the fall of many important events brightened prospects for the near future. The decline in oil prices was faster than before, there was a noticeable depreciation of the euro, the European Central Bank announced quantitative easing, the European Commission announced Investment Plan for Europe. All of these factors should have a positive impact on growth “- says the European Commission.
” appropriate economic conditions for sustainable growth “
European Commission’s Vice-President. Euro and social dialogue Valdis Dombrovskis emphasized that this is the very important moment for the EU economy. – There are the right conditions for sustainable economic growth and job creation. After a difficult political choices that governments have to make in the face of crisis, there are the effects of reforms. We need to increase their pace in order to strengthen the recovery and to ensure that it will translate into more money in the pockets of the people – rated Dombrovskis.
According to European Commission forecasts economic growth in the EU will continue to be uneven. Will soon develop Ireland’s economy, which emerged from the economic crisis. In 2014,. The country has recorded a GDP growth of 4.8 per cent., And in 2015. This rate is expected to be 3.5 percent.
Malta and Poland prymusami Europe A fast-paced
has also develop the economy of Malta (3.3 per cent. in 2015.), Polish (3.2 per cent.) and Lithuania (3.0 percent.). The lowest growth this year will witness Croatia – 0.2 percent. GDP, Cyprus – 0.4 percent, and Italy – 0.6 percent.
Germany, the largest EU economy will grow by 1.5 percent. Of GDP in 2015. And 2.0 per cent. in 2016. In turn, France will increase at a level of 1 percent. and 1.8 per cent. – European Commission forecasts.
Italian Prime Minister in Davos: Europe has no idea of growth
CNN Newsource / x-news
There will be new jobs
According to the EC in the EU, more and more jobs, but it translates to a rapid decline in unemployment. The labor market situation is expected to improve at the end of 2016., But the expected economic growth will be insufficient to this improvement was significant – says the European Commission. Predicts that in 2015. EU-wide unemployment falls to 9.8 per cent., While in the eurozone – to 11.2 percent.
level for the whole EU deficit will fall this year to 2.6 percent. To 3 percent of GDP. in 2014. On the other hand, in 2016. This rate is expected to be 2.2 percent.
deficit in the euro area is expected to be 2.2 percent. in 2015. and 1.9 per cent. in 2016. The Commission reserves
however, that the increased level of uncertainty about the economic situation. There are new positive factors, but also have increased risk of deterioration, which is related to geopolitical tensions, back of instabilit y in the financial markets due to differences in monetary policy is the most important part of economies and the implementation of structural reforms. Prolonged period of very low inflation can also be harmful to the economic outlook.
PAP, abo
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