2015-02-04 22:26 Przemysław Lawrowski , an analyst Money.pl Author: Przemysław Lawrowski 
Passionate about financial markets. Submit a long-term investment over short-term speculation. Followers of fundamental analysis, however, does not despise information stemming from technical analysis. Adheres to the theory that the investment decisions emotions are bad counselor.
The WIG20 coming slowly to the maximum level seen in January this year. Impulse in the form of a reduction in interest rates for the time being not count, since the next MPC decision will be made only for a month. On Thursday, we will first of all data from the US, but the voice can also cause emotions associated with the case of Greece.
US session ended decrease in one of the most important indices traded on Wall Street . S & amp; P 500, after two days of growth went down by 0.4 percent. Slightly better coped Nasdaq and the Dow Jones gained slightly (0.04 percent).
According to published data on Wednesday, US crude oil inventories, on Thursday we can expect a decline in crude oil prices. The volume of crude oil inventories totaled 6.3 million barrels in fact, while a week ago it was 8.9 million barrels.
For us as a decision on interest rates in Poland. The Monetary Policy Council decided not to spill, which was prepared for the financial market. This does not mean, however, that the chances of a reduction in the cost of capital in Poland were buried. At the press conference after the two-day meeting, Marek Belka said that the council is currently closer to the reduction in interest rates than they were in January. It was mentioned also that the possible reduction may be even greater than 0.25 percentage points.
The key to the decision after the March meeting will be the data contained in the projection of inflation. If deflation in the Polish economy will continue to persist, the interest rate may be reduced. The need for a reduction in the cost of capital does not indicate recent economic data, one needs to remember that the key factor for the MPC is the inflation rate, which should be 2.5 percent +/- 1 percent.
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The reduction in interest rates could boost the Polish stock market gains. Although recent indicators show that the economic situation our country is quite good, but it does not translate into share price. Looking for a change of WIG20 YTD, you will see that a change is small.
Sedation factors associated with the Swiss franc and Greece would help blue-chip index to reach the level of 2667 points, which is the January maximum.
Any large interest rate cut korespondowałaby with those of other central banks. Recently decided to lower bank of Australia. Negative interest rate is also Switzerland, and the ECB recently announced a program to stimulate the economy. On Thursday the decision on interest bank take the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom. In our neighborhood, the main interest has a height of 0.05 percent. A possible step towards easing monetary policy, although not substantively alter the Warsaw Stock Exchange, but confirmed that trend.
macroeconomic data on Thursday, we expect mainly afternoon. The first of the information with the US appears Chellangera report. It concerns the planned number of redundancies by industry. Another information from the United States will address labor market data. About 14:30 Labour Department will give the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. Last week, the data surprised, because the number was 265,000.
At the same time we will also provide information on the US foreign trade. Data on exports and imports are estimated on the basis of the transaction price including customs, insurance and other fees associated with the export of goods and services.
After the publication of the results of BZ WBK, on Thursday will be published quarterly report mBank. The market will undoubtedly draw the attention of, among others, because the entity has one of the largest portfolios of loans denominated in Swiss francs.
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