“good deflation”, the possibility of
foreign exchange intervention by the National Bank of Poland, the impact of the program on the economy and 500+
the situation before May 13 and the revision of the rating Polish – are the main topics of the conference
the press after the decision of the Monetary Policy Council, where Marek
Beam once before last appeared in the role of president.
The Monetary Policy Council decided again
leave interest rates unchanged at a record low level. Meeting
ended the day on which the president
Andrzej Duda pointed Adam Glapiński candidate for next president
NBP.
Today’s conference was one of the last, which was chaired by Marek
Beam. 6-year term of office of President of the NBP shall expire on June 11 of this year. Before that date,
there will be two more meetings of the MPC decision: one-day and two-day May 24
(Decision-making), June 7-8.
Below are the most important statements that died during the Friday press conference with the President of the National Bank of Poland Marek Belka. Apart from the president
Polish National Bank in the conference was attended also by two members
MPC – Grazyna Ancyparowicz and Eric Łon.
At the outset of today’s conference, Marek Belka read the content of the message
MPC. Its content is available in its entirety on
the NBP, the most interesting piece concerned the overall assessment of the Council:
– The Council maintains
assessment that in the light of the available data and forecasts the current level of interest rates
is conducive to maintaining the Polish economy on the path of sustainable growth and allows
maintain macroeconomic stability – according to the release.
At the outset, Marek Belka denied weak March data from the Polish
economy affected the attitude of the Council on the issue of interest rate cuts.
– I have always tried to convince MPC members, as well as body
commentators that the Council should not be in their decisions based on the data
high frequency, or monthly. These generally reflect some
seasonal changes, a special calendar shift – so the rest was and
this year. We look at all the smoothed data, that is, with a few months -
He said.
According to the President of the NBP, in the first quarter of Poland’s economy
will record an increase lower than the fourth quarter of the previous year.
– indeed, what we GUS said of the previous year,
It is just such a shift of the economic dynamism in the last quarter.
The annual rate has not changed, but the distribution of growth has changed. Fourth
quarter is a little niereprezentacyjny and it is natural that the first quarter will be
slower. As for expectations for the coming quarters, they did not
changed. We will have to deal with actually lower in reading
the first quarter and then slow growth – he added.
Rating no tsunami
Asked about the mood ahead of next revision of the rating
Polish by Moody’s, Marek Belka said that “does not provide
tsunami “, and investors have already discounted the potential impact of this on the course
gold.
– I do not expect any tsunami , and the unmistakable
the announcement of the downgrade, because it can be interpreted previous pronouncements,
They exert pressure on the zloty. However, I believe that the zloty exchange rate already
rating – if it occurred – is discounted – he added.
Marek Belka also denied that the finance minister contacted
with him in connection with the forthcoming review of the rating.
– We used contacts almost every day, and everything we do
It is in order to reduce tension. But with regard to some activities
dated May 13, neither I nor he would not come to mind – he added.
Good change for the
Glapiński
Marek Belka in the same positives referring to the candidacy
Adam Glapiński, whose president appointed today on the next President of the NBP.
– Markets certainly waiting for it, who will designate
NBP president and I think we took it well. I met with comments that
it is an expression continue. The professor Glapiński was a member for 6 years
MPC, a few months is a board member. I think this is a good choice
so it will be and is rated by the markets – summed.
– Professor Glapiński over 6 years is a co
NBP monetary policy. Of course, that we are discussing, and he is a member of the
discussion every day. There will be no surprise if I say that of course
It is a continuation of a good monetary policy. This does not mean that they can not occur
some modifications. Continuation it is quite natural – he added Belka.
Six interventions
The outgoing president of the NBP in June recalled that his
term Polish central bank repeatedly intervened in the currency market.
Commenting on the recent behavior of the zloty, Marek Belka did not rule out
re reaching for the instrument.
– To some extent,
weakening of the zloty was caused by global factors, and only in some
level factors specific for our country. The threat or announcement
downgrade by one of the agencies exerts downward pressure on the zloty. We are
vigilant all the time, as it did not increase, and upheld our level of vigilance -
he said.
– I
It recalled that the National Bank of Poland appreciates the fact that the exchange rate system in Poland is
floating, freely shaping the market exchange rate of the zloty, is one of our
strengths in economic policy. Please also note that we do not exclude – if
the market situation would require that – the intervention . Last podliczyliśmy that
During my term of office of these interventions were six . Definitely some significance for
the dynamics of exchange rate changes it did. I repeat once again – we do not have any level
or extent of fluctuations in the exchange rate, we would like to maintain. It is floating and realize it
We value – added Beam.
The Council has not thought about
To change
When asked about the prospect of changes in interest
interest rates, the NBP president said that the MPC analyzes the various scenarios, including the
also those that involve a raise.
– We discuss different scenarios. Are those where
modification of monetary policy is not wykluczalibyśmy. I want to say that these
There are several scenarios and They may also theoretically suggest multidirectional
changes . I had the impression that today’s discussion showed higher
prone to changes in interest rates – said.
Led by Marek Belka Council has not discussed while having
change the inflation target. As emphasized by the current conference Grazyna
Ancyparowicz her opinion “inflation target is not a value in itself” and a
“Compass, not a destination.” On the other hand, Eric Łon added that in his opinion “the current target
inflation is good and promotes the Polish economy. “
– What sustains us in
implementation of monetary policy is a flexible treatment that purpose. Look
You around us. Problems hit the inflation target have virtually all
major central banks of the world . I have not heard anyone in particular
such a situation is considered – said Marek Belka.
500+ and “good deflation”
Referring to a prolonged period of deflation in
Poland, Marek Belka said that in his opinion this phenomenon entails serious
negative consequences.
– I remember swore that at the end of the year will be
of course, a positive reading of the CPI, but I just made a mistake. It falls to me to repeat
what I say usually. The phenomenon of deflation does not raise concern, not to mention
panic. From the point of view of consumers is called. “Good deflation” . Looking at
consumer behavior, we see that the propensity to save decreases. There is no
characteristic of bad deflation – a Japanese-style from previous years – tendencies
to postpone purchases. There is no reason to panic – said Belka,
mentioning that the National Bank of Poland closely follows a corporate finance,
which could reveal the negative side of deflation. According to the President of the NBP,
deflation time expires.
– My colleagues from other central banks jealous that
we did not have to lower interest rates to zero or even below zero, that does not
we had to resort to unconventional instruments, and at the same time, and perhaps
precisely because we note the growth difficult to achieve for all
European countries – he added.
Referring to the economic growth in Poland, President
NBP drew attention to the impact of the program 500+. Marek Belka also said that
Polish central bank in its policy different from their Western counterparts.
– At the moment, the economy is growing at potential
growth. This is the optimal situation. For a short period of can be expected
powerful for such a situation stimulating factor-program
500 + . This program will help increase the pace of growth this year and next year,
although much less, because the effect will expire. Some acceleration in the second
half of the year we can observe – he said.
Michael Żuławiński
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