Politics of Donald trump, should contribute to the strengthening of the dollar in 2017. Experts note, however, that the factor of great risk for the world economy might be deteriorating relations with China.
Observers of financial markets nervously craved in the first speech of the American President. Nothing surprising. Donald trump has shown in recent weeks that already do it Twitter can shake the Forex currencies and companies in the stock market.
No stomps were not, although the dollar has lost a little of view of major competitors. Quotes current as of today grew up less than a penny, and assessment in the Russian ruble fell Friday from noon to 3 pennies. So, after taking the oath after 18.00, the loss amounted to only 1 penny.
Speech in the U.S. Congress trump made a Declaration of change toward the rich, proud and great state. Preparing the restructuring of the armed forces. States are also major changes in the tax system. In the plans, in particular, reducing the cost of functioning of public administration and the tax burden that would wywindowanie economic growth even 4 percent. This is to support the creation of 25 million jobs over the next ten years.
Dollar even 4,50 RUB
the First reaction of the currency market was not very big, and the dollar declined slightly. Experts, but, rather, that the presidency of Donald trump will be in the long term contribute to strengthening of the American currency.
- look far ahead, we see a President trump as a factor prodolarowy, but its origin may be in sharp turns, that bounce can also approach investors to the developing currencies, including gold, – says Gregory Ponytail, currency analyst from DM XTB.
Analysts after the announcement of presidential election results in the U.S. showed that the U.S. currency will contribute to the implementation of the plans of the new President. During the election campaign, Donald trump stated, in particular, tax cuts and big infrastructure program.
- it should be followed by inflation. If that happens, it is, of course, the signal for the monetary authorities of the United States that need to raise interest rates. And the prospect of higher interest rates in the United States, as a rule, the stronger dollar, ‘ said Marek rogalski, an analyst with DM BO.
in Fact, the scenario of increasing interest rates in the United States is very real. Projections show that this year there will be 2 or 3 higher interest rates. – We assume that this will lead to the strengthening of the dollar against the Euro. This means that the exchange rate of the dollar to the Euro may soon reach the level of 1:1, says WP money James Makurat, CEO of Ebury Poland, are engaged in support of transactions on the foreign exchange market and risk management of the exchange rate. – If this happens, it will mean that gold will lose value against the U.S. currency and will fall in the ceiling, even 4,50 UAH per dollar, – the expert predicts.
it Should also pay attention to the fact that in January 2018. end of the term of the current chiefs of the US Central Bank Janet Yellen. Donald trump will be appointed his successor, and that decision, of course, will not remain without influence on the currency market.
trade War with China is a big risk
Analysts point out that a very important, and yet undervalued in the markets, a risk factor may be the policy of the new President of the United States against China. Today, Donald trump gave a demonstration of his views on Twitter, where, for example, to provoke discussion about Chinese juanie, which caused an increase in speculation about a trade war with China.
Even strained US relations with Mexico after the announcement of Donald trump are not for the global economy as much danger as a possible conflict with China. It is not a country with which politicians have to communicate via messages on Twitter, – said Boris Makurat. – It is clear that the China in international trade, they do not want to be dependent on the dollar. Is there an option to Americans to be scared, he adds.
Meanwhile, the new US President has repeatedly stated that it is going to download back to the US jobs that were exported to China. The coming months will show to investors that promises Donald trump will be implemented. Much will depend on the selection of staff, as well as from cooperation with the Congress.
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