Donald trump has entered a post of the President of the United States. The implications of the choice of Americans we feel has been for some time. Gold back and the dollar is clearly podrożał and most likely will not be cheaper because forecasts suggest further strengthening of the American currency. And, most of all, it doesn’t matter that after zaprzysiężeniu the American currency began to lose value.
Update 2017-01-20 21:53:04
- There is a possibility that we will see a much stronger dollar, even in relation to current levels, which are high – says Barry Eichengreen, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley. In his opinion, there is no risk that the markets and the global financial system unprepared for effects of the strong dollar.
But the U.S. currency is very strong. Before the presidential elections in the United States, when few anticipated the victory of Donald trump, the dollar was worth about 3,90 UAH. The unexpected triumph of the Republicans, contrary to expectations, did not bring downs in the markets and the revaluation of the dollar. Moreover, the contribution to new records on wall Street and a strong strengthening of the American currency.
In mid-December, the dollar reached 4.28 rubles, which meant many years of record. Although last week brought to light, caused the mountain collapse of quotations, the more they close, almost 20 C higher than before the election.
High dollar-it is for most Poles the bad news. Means for the higher prices in the shops. Especially annoying is rapidly increasing fuel. On the one hand, wine drożejącej of oil on world markets, and, on the other, which cemented itself to the American currency, which lists prices of raw materials.
This led to the fact that from November last year, the average price of petrol Pb95 increased by almost a liter of 30 g to 4.74 UAH. And this could not finish, because repeatedly in recent time, there are forecasts saying I like it, even up to 5 UAH.
Exports, imports, the dollar
the Problem with an expensive dollar, they are also importers, i.e. entrepreneurs sprowadzający goods from abroad. If calculated in us currency, for one and the same product is now paying 20 percent. more than a year ago. In large part the higher costs, turned into consumers, which leads to rising prices on the shelves.
it is Difficult to calculate the extent to which the increase is responsible for the strengthening of the dollar, but the statistics on inflation do not give doubt that prices from month to month are becoming higher. GUS data show that inflation during the month, even at 0.7 percent. in December, the largest increase since March 2011. Thus, the annual inflation rate rose from zero to 0.8 percent. For the 12 months rose among others, food products (2.7 percent), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (1%).
Also hunters adrenaline, traveling the world, experiencing more negative consequences of weak gold against the dollar. Here also, each time the calculations are in U.S. currency become more expensive.
Such examples are still many, but also, when someone loses, there are those that gain. Victory trump and the related impact on the markets are preferable, in particular for exporters, also in our country is not enough. If importing a year for courses the exchange lost 20 percent in a scale like the seller has received the goods for other countries. However, in this case the gear ratio for the situation, Ivanova insignificant. Well, I think that working in such a company, it can rely in this regard on the wage increase with profit increase.
the Dollar will continue the wave of growth?
the Policy of the new administration fall out positively for the economy and the dollar. At least, looking through the lens preview of the campaign where it was, in particular, about tax cuts and investment stimulation.
the Market has speculated that trump will remind, the agenda of Reagan and put beginning of a boom in the US economy, caused by an increase in fiscal spending and reduced taxes, particularly for companies, that would translate to investment growth, – indicates John hardy, strategist of the foreign exchange market Saxo Bank.
however, the Expert drew attention to a number of differences between Reaganomics since the early 80-ies., and Trumpnomics in 2017.
- Then debts public and private meet half the current level, and interest rates started to fall. And now? The legs are at historically low levels, and the debt economy is the largest in history, says hardy.
we are Waiting for new quality whether trump will be only mighty in words and in deeds no longer necessary?
- there Will be a revolution in economic policy, just a matter on what scale, because the market is very much already awarded if we are talking about plans to ease fiscal policy and the revision of trade agreements, – said Grigory Tail, an analyst at XTB.
the Expert draws, however, attention to the fact that cooperation with Congress may not go very smoothly, because Trumpowi not, however, like the tax reform Republicans. In addition, during the interrogation on February 19, the Senate elected trump’s candidate for Finance Minister tried to tone the statements of elected President in respect of, in particular, too large power of the dollar.
- This situation breeds suspicion that the entourage of the new President may try to ease his radical ideas. Looking forward, we see, however, a trump presidency as a factor prodolarowy, but its origin may be in sharp turns on the American currency, warns Tail.
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