As announced on Tuesday a report “directions of 2017. Negative economic impacts. Stress tests of the Polish economy in 2017,” prepared by DNB Bank and Deloitte, almost all of the search sectors of the Polish economy seem to be more resilient to the downturn than during the last crisis, which, retail to a lesser extent.
According to the authors of the report, after holding a referendum on Brexitu and presidential elections in the United States, the global political situation is still very dynamic.
“Crucial to the future of the EU, including the Euro zone, they will be presidential elections in France and parliamentary in Germany, which will take place respectively in spring and autumn this year, you also can’t rule out early parliamentary elections in other countries, especially in Italy. The political debate has focused around the concept of federalization of the EU and a continued inflow of immigrants, especially from Islamic countries, and the strengthening of ties with Russia”, – said in the report.
it is Noted that a number of problems the EU and the global risks are also related to Turkey or Russia, in connection with the conflict in Syria and Ukraine. Anxiety can cause changes in the political strategy and military power of China, but also the risk of a trade war between the US and China after the election Donald trump President of the United States.
the authors of the report point to the fact that our economy is linked to the European Union, mainly external trade and foreign direct investment. Exports – according to data for 2015 currently stands at over 51 percent. Of GDP, of which 79 percent. is directed to the EU markets.
according to the report, “from the countries from which negative impacts on the Polish economy were included in simulations”, the major role is played by Germany (27 per cent. exports, 28%. import), UK (7 per cent. exports, 3 percent. of imports), France (6 per cent. exports, 4 percent. of imports) and Italy (5%). The role of Russia is small – 3%. exports, 7 percent. imports, as well weight direct exchange with the United States or China share in exports, respectively, 2 percent. and 1% and imports by 2 percent. and 7 percent.
“Our analyses show that taking into account the value of nominal exports, possibly, the economic crisis in Germany and Italy and France will be particularly relevant for our automotive industry. In turn, the crisis in Germany or the UK to the greatest extent odczułyby also industry associated with food production. Sales of food products in Russia, China and the United States is relatively small, and the smallest in Ukraine”, – he said the report cited the President of DNB Bank Polska Artur Tomaszewski.
the authors of the report refer to the data of National Polish Bank, from which it follows that in an average year in Poland does well. 40 billion in FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), i.e. foreign direct investment (including approx. 501 billion rubles in the period 2004-2015, i.e. an amount equivalent to 15%. capital spending in the economy). FDI is taken almost exclusively from the EU (96 percent). won and received in this period, EU funds, structural, and coherence. At the same time the incoming FDI is more reinwestycje achieved net profit in Poland (60%).
“analyzed in the report countries, most of the inflow/outflow of FDI came from Poland, he could suffer in the event of a crisis in Germany and France (participation level, respectively 22 percent. and 12 percent. companies), but if you take into account the balance 2015, a material adverse effect on the flow of FDI would be – in addition to Germany, also the crisis in the UK and Spain. Among the analyzed sectors, a large part of FDI was directed in the automotive sector (9%, 2010-2015) and wholesale trade (9 percent). and retail trade (6%), thus, in the event of another global crisis, these industries could especially feel to suspend the inflow and/or outflow of foreign capital,” – said in the report.
According to the creators of the report, in 2017, among the analyzed countries the slightest risk of crisis show that the US, Russia, Turkey and China, and the biggest: Spain, Italy, Ukraine. The average risk of the crisis, on a very intimate level, speaking in Germany, the UK and France.
“From the register, in addition, the results of stress tests (in the form of accumulated reaction of the Polish economy to the negative pulse from the country during the first seven years) that much oddziałujący Poland shock USA-it’s unlikely, but slightly less severe shock, from Spain or Italy is at present a pretty big risk. A possible crisis in Ukraine, albeit on a fairly high probability event, a 7-year term will be a source of positive shock for the Polish economy. The crisis in Germany and France with an average probability of no strongly negative influence on Poland, but the crisis from Britain to Russia much greater importance”, – is specified.
according to the economist, the report’s co-author Catherine Heel-Kosińska with Deloitte Consulting, stress tests for the Polish economy show that the most strong and long lasting deviation down the dynamics of Polish GDP from the basic bridge can result in negative momentum with global economies, i.e. the United States and China.
“If the magnitude of the external shock would be comparable to the 2009, most of the analyzed industries can be considered with less weakening of the dynamics of revenue from sales than it did in 2009, because in 2008. in several sectors, such as health, telecommunications and information technology, wholesale trade, we have observed very high gain and in this regard, the correction of the results of the crisis was significant,” – said Tomaszewski. In his opinion, the exception to this is food production, where the dynamics in 2009. improved but with the current structure of the economy would be her weakness. (PAP)
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