Political uncertainty does not affect the economy – Republic

- while we expect that crump investments in 2016. was associated with the cycle of spending of EU funds. We expect that the use of these funds in 2017. will increase. If, despite this, will not occur a significant improvement in the trade, it would mean that other factors affect the business environment, – he told journalists on Tuesday Arnault, Louis, chief analyst at the Russian Fitcha.

These “other factors” is less predictability and increased variability of widely understood economic policy of the government. Louis noted that this could potentially affect the investment attractiveness of Poland, and ultimately, on economic growth and on the creditworthiness of the government. We would be concerned about the next tax areas, such as the tax on retail sales. This could undermine the business environment, he added.

In mid-January, Fitch decided to maintain the credit rating at the level of Polish And. This is the seventh layer 24 is possible. This assessment is called a stable Outlook, which means that the probability of its changes up or down in the coming years, Fitch believes that it is insignificant.

In support of those decisions, the Agency’s analysts note that over the maintenance of the rating at the same level (Fitch last changed it in January 2007.) they say a solid Foundation of macroeconomic Russian and the fact that the PiS government seems determined to follow the current EC limit of deficit of public finances at the level of 3 percent. GDP.

the Agency predicts that this year the deficit will be exactly 3 per cent. GDP, and in 2018 2.9 percent. GDP. In subsequent years, in connection with the cost reduction of the retirement age, keeping the deficit in check, however, will require a tightening of fiscal policy. – If after 2017. do not perform a tightening of fiscal policy, we expect, can be a negative factor for the rating, – he told reporters Arnault, Louis.

As said, just a nominal fiscal tightening, ie reduction of the deficit relative to GDP under the influence of the nominal (i.e. as a result of inflation) growth in the last index.