GDP Growth in 2016. was slightly above the forecasts of economists – was 2.8 per cent., against an expected 2.7%. According to economists, GDP in 2017. will be accelerated.
according to the data of GUS in 2016. GDP is calculated in constant prices of the previous year actually increased by 2.8 percent, against growth of 3.9 percent. in 2015. GUS he also said that investments fell last year by 5.5 percent, domestic demand actually rose by 2.8 per cent. (while in 2015. rose 3.4 per cent). And the total consumption was higher by 3.6 percent. (in the year 2015. growth was 3 percent), consumption in the household sector increased by 3.6 percent. (after rising by 3.2 percent. in 2015).
Economists from Bank Raiffeisen Polbank noticed in comments according to CEO that economic growth in 2016. he was a little above the latest expectations, the so-called market consensus said, for 2.7%. growth.
“if we assume that GDP growth in the first three quarters will remain unchanged, this allows us to expect growth of around 2 percent. rdr in the fourth quarter of last year., and thus significantly higher than feared a few weeks ago. The GDP structure will be published only at the end of February, but already now we can say that the data allow for optimism,” he estimated.
Drew attention to the decline in value added in construction by 11.9 per cent., what, in their opinion, may not be a good result, however, shows that the dynamics of this category in the fourth quarter rose to about minus 8.5 percent. year-on-year from minus 16.5 per cent. year-on-year in the third quarter.
“Given the monthly data, which we found out in December 2016, we can expect that the culmination of the economic slowdown, especially in investment, took place at the end of last year., and the following months will bring improvement of the situation. According to our estimates, confirmation of this will be tomorrow’s reading of PMI for January,” they added.
Despite the fact that real GDP growth is 2.8 percent. for 2016, higher than the consensus, it’s hard to admit it as satisfactory, – says, in turn, Dr. Alexey Fur, b. Deputy Minister of Finance.
According to him, the decline in growth relative to the previous year is probably due to two factors. First, investment in infrastructure, financed from European Union funds, as well as from bureaucratic reasons lying on the side of the EU, has slowed. “It’s so alarming that the use of these funds is the function of the organization structures of the country, and it seems that was not done in this case sufficient steps to zdynamizować the inflow of funds into the economy,” said Moss.
the Second factor, more worrisome, could be the slowdown of the dynamics of companies ‘ investments,” said Moss. He added that this “may mean that investment in Poland has become less profitable.”
Adam Antoniak with Pekao believes that the slowdown in economic growth in 2016. first of all, it was a result of falling investment, which declined by 5.5 percent. “Stop investment activity is a result of delays in expending funds from the new financial pespektywy of the Customs Union, as well as the negative impact of high uncertainty on investment in the corporate sector”, he explained.
Antoniak sees a risk of further small decline in investment in 2017, with a stable and dynamic growth of private consumption. “Economic growth this year is expected at 3 percent.” – said the economist.
According to him, the main driving force of economic growth had an individual consumption relies on income growth, primarily due to the favorable situation on the labor market.
higher economic growth expects the same Moss, but I wonder whether it is sufficient for the process of convergence. “Doganianie other countries, particularly our neighbor Germany, requires copying solutions to industrial and organizational country,” he says. “Should be stronger to motivate EU funds for infrastructure development growth,” he says. Considers it necessary to depart from the policy of freezing wages, that is “the result of the import of the great Reich of immigrants and the attitude of entrepreneurs to the reduction of wage costs and not on increasing spending on investment and transfer of production to sectors with higher added value.”
Also, according to economists from PKO BP rating of GDP in 2016. along with monthly data from the economy indicate, in particular, a clear limitation of the recession in the construction industry at the end of the year or a double-digit increase in steel production, confirm that the slowdown in GDP growth have passed the bottom, and the dynamics of GDP in early 2017. will continue to accelerate.
“the Main driving force behind the reversal of the trend of GDP is construction, correlated with the inflow of funds from the EU. MF data on flow of funds from the EU in December is confirmed, further improvement of the capital account of the balance of payments (growth of approx. balance of 1.1 percent. Of GDP, as against 0.8 percent. GDP after November), indicating the increase of absorption of EU funds intended for investment. The full effects of the acceleration in the construction will be felt after the winter,” say the economists at the Bank PKO BP.
according to Them, GUS data do not change prospects for monetary policy. “In relation to mitigate concerns about GDP growth and more and more strong reflection of growth in the beginning of the year, confirming the temporary nature of the slowdown, the MPC will be more and more attention to the growing inflation,” I think. Zastrzegli that the GDP growth this year will probably not be strong enough to force the MPC to action, the more that the consumer price index in the second half of the year will begin wyhamowywać. “We maintain our view that the first rate hike can be expected only in 2018.” they added.
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