Foreign investors are slowly returning to the Polish stock market – Banker

For several weeks, analysts are beginning to see a gradual return of foreign investors to the Vistula. Although statistics Stock Exchange have not shown (in February relative to January sales fell a larger number of trading days), there is an increasing advantage of buyers over sellers. If you can avoid the hassle associated with the closure of the budget for 2017 years, this trend has a chance to consolidate.

 

Foreign investors are slowly returning to the Polish stock market

– foreign investors at the moment is after a period of digestion as a result of the election, and no doubt the first two months after the elections were a kind of surprise and disappointment. It was also a period of forced changes in optics and could see an outflow of capital – says a news agency Newseria Investor Adam Dakowicz, CEO AgioFunds TFI. – Now, while the signals from both the currency market, the bond market and the stock market point to a gradual return of investors.

 

From the lowest levels of 20 January WIG20 gained more than 17 percent. Although this means only to return to the levels of November last year, and since the last summit of the turn of April and May 2015. Index is up 23 percent. below, but the upward trend is emerging. Also, the broad market index WIG January 20 gained 13.5 percent.

 

– First, the fundamentals of the economy remained unchanged in spite of political change. Second, it appears that most of the factors including the working direction, however, accelerate. It should appeal even to the last medium-term forecasts updated by the MPC: lower inflation, higher growth – argues Dakowicz. – It seems to me that investors currently are rather in the tendency of returning to the Polish market.

 

Polish National Bank in March inflation projection has lowered the forecast growth of prices for – 0.4 percent. from 1.1 percent. and raised the GDP growth forecast from 3.3 to 3.8 percent. Dakowicz notes that GDP growth will also contribute to increasing consumption after the transfer of portfolios of Poles 17.2 billion zł program 500+.
 

– We can argue about whether it is good to spend money on consumption, because it may be better to invest. In the short term it makes us absolutely to GDP. It is difficult to predict exactly how much – says Dakowicz.

 

The only threat they see an analyst, to consolidate the positive trends are any budget problems for 2,017 years. While this year recorded a one-time influences, eg. The auction LTE, so much a year of such injections will be no more.

 

– From the point of view of economic risks it seems to me that the closer to the end of the year we will have to carefully keep track of, as is likely to be built budget for 2017 years and how it will financed. This year, most of the expenditure planned, even with the increased pro-social programs implemented by the current government, are already funding sources. By contrast, today we have no certainty as to the financing of these expenditures in 2017 – Dakowicz reserves.

 

In his view, three quarters of it enough time to find new sources of funding. Since February functions tax assets of financial companies, which this year alone is expected to bring 5.5 billion zł. The introduction is still waiting honed retail sales tax, whose first project met with widespread criticism commercial environments, mainly small-scale retailers and franchisees. It has a year to bring the budget 2 billion zł.

 

– It’s time to work out the mechanism. If over the next nine months, these projects will be implemented and will be, I think, that if financing of the budget and expenditures for next year will be less vulnerable. Then you may find that the return of investors that we see today, may also be continued in 2017 – says Adam Dakowicz.