– There should be some form of help .Rząd not have access to credit information. We hope that the Financial Supervision Authority will provide a base credit – said Kowalczyk.
In mid-January, Office of the President submitted a draft law on foreign currency loans, which involves three mechanisms of restructuring loans. It was sent to the Financial Supervision Authority, which was to determine the financial impact of this regulation.
Financial Supervision Commission in February sent the bank a survey on the impact of the presidential draft law. The survey covered 58 banks and branches of foreign credit institutions, ie. All banks with a balance sheet (as of end of November 2015). Foreign currency receivables from non-financial entities. Banks holding portfolios of loans / borrowings under the law have a significant share in aggregate assets and capital of the Polish banking sector: 88 percent. total assets of the sector and 90 per cent. equity sector.
For this estimate the cost of the Financial Supervision Authority has adopted two variants (A and B, depending on whether the exchange rate is steady or increasing by 25 per cent. Compared to the rate of 31 December 2015) and four scenarios for each of these options.
According to the surveyed banks, for the base variant of the exchange rate (option A) for different scenarios costs amount to 56.2 billion zł (scenario 1); 67.2 billion zł (scenario 2); 44.6 billion zł (scenario 3); 66.9 billion zł (scenario 4). The most likely scenario adopted 4.
Option B is a significant stress test for the restructuring process. It refers to the rise in the exchange rate in relation to the Polish zloty by 25 percent. Made calculation indicate that the burden of option B (growth rates of 25 per cent.), Depending on the scenario will be as follows: 94.3 billion zł (scenario 1); 107.2 billion zł (scenario 2); 74.2 billion zł (scenario 3); 103.4 billion zł (scenario 4).
The calculations NBP and the KNF on presidential regulation on restructuring of foreign currency loans indicate the scale of the problem and are the basis for further work team presidential – says in an interview with PAP presidential adviser Zdzislaw Sokal.
He added that the final design should mitigate risks for the banks and reduce the negative impact of foreign currency loans, they felt the borrower.
– According to the Communication Office of the President, an estimate by the KNF impact related to the foreign currency loans is the basis for the further work of the presidential team. The calculations of the NBP and the KNF show the scale of the problem and the more you need to take care of it. You have to do it in such a way as to preserve the financial stability of the country, the stability of the banking sector, which is very important for the stability of the whole economic system. I hope that in this direction will go the work – said in an interview with PAP Sokal.
– must this be part of all institutions responsible for financial stability, market participants should take part in the discussion, it should be developed project which on the one hand zmityguje risk – because the risk is on the side of the banks, as well as reduce the negative impact of foreign currency loans, they felt Frankowicz + +. The President was well aware from the beginning of the scale of the problem, is it aware of, while calculating the KNF are certain information that is at the moment to use. The president has never had such an intention (to plunge the banking sector in trouble – PAP) – he added.
A report published in February by the NBP report on the stability of the financial system, the central bank calculated that the direct cost of returning the spreads of currency and conversion of capital all loans after the so-called. “Righteous foreign currency exchange rates” adopted in the presidential draft law on the restructuring of foreign currency loans may reach 44 billion zł. NBP said that taking into account respect of restructuring costs, about 70 percent. the banking sector can note the loss.
According to estimates KNF published in mid-March – depending on the variant adopted – load banks under the announced restructuring of foreign currency loans may range from 44.6 to 107.2 billion zł billion zł, with the most probable variant is 66.9 billion zł.
KNF estimates that the value of the refund in respect of spreads for all banks may reach 15.2 billion zł, with 12.1 billion zł is the return on loans currently stored in the bank’s balance sheet.
Office of the President said in a statement acknowledged the calculation of the Financial Supervision Authority as a basis for further discussions about the final shape of the regulation. At the same time law firm claimed that waiting for a response to the second statement KNF Polish Communist Party, the information about the portfolio of mortgage loans and the situation of banks. Added that the Polish Communist Party priority is to help borrowers, while maintaining the financial stability of the state and the banking sector.
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