Luke Wilkowicz: recently published state the impact on the banking sector of the presidential draft law on foreign currency loans. The cost for the banking sector may even exceed 100 billion zł. But then there was criticism that this is just a survey, not a reliable estimate based on actual data from the banks.
Andrzej Jakubiak, head of the Financial Supervision Authority: Each financial supervision on the world is based primarily on reporting. What is reporting? These are the questionnaires filled in financial institutions, drawn up in EU format via the NBP. Normal banks reporting that we receive, not take into account the information that we requested. Therefore, we needed a special survey. But the survey KNF not rely on the fact that someone engages passers-by and asks a few questions.
But the banks could enter what is convenient for them. In this case – that will suffer huge losses.
In the same way you can say that fit what they want, in their daily reporting. Allegations formulate some people associated with CU-ami, after which they must respond to the survey KNF. They know best, or you can enter them in what is convenient for them.
The rules of the game are clear: the financial institutions know that we can come and check what has been given. And if someone tried to cheat us … Anyway, these so-called. polls “sewn” questions are cleared. It must agree with other data, which were presented and verified before.
But let us go further: if there are objections to our reporting, is just one evaluates reporting to the central bank, the tax office or to the Central Statistical Office?!
What for you was the most important when it comes to survey results?
Two things. Firstly, it is not, as some professors said that the banks do not have francs, its lending frankowych . The vast majority of these were “hard” money. Sometimes substitutes have been hedging transactions – transactions IRS swap, but it must be emphasized that these instruments mainly handling the banks of the Polish capital. Foreign can obtain financing from the owners.
The second thing: “course just” is not fair. He differentiates borrowers depending on the date of the loan, and it is very hard. Those who took loans in 2004., Actually they would have to pay extra. The most benefit those who took loans in 2007-2008. But that’s nothing: for a loan on the same day the course is “otherwise fair” when the loan was taken for 10 years, and otherwise the credit for the long term. In the latter case, the rate is much higher. It is known that the way to improve creditworthiness was extending the repayment period of the loan. Ie those for longer periods took less affluent. “The course just” turns out to be so favorable for the more affluent. Gives them an additional profit, and does not protect those who really deserve it.
What, taking into account the costs of the presidential project is feasible? Or what should be changed to give it to realize?
This project consists of several elements. Take the first from the shore: spreads. Means that some borrowers, even those who have paid off their loans will get some money. It does not remove the currency risk that all the time associated with these loans and does not solve the problem of high LTV (ratio of debt to the value of collateral – ed.). And that’s the key. Therefore, in my opinion, banks should approach this in a serious way and show his own proposal. The basis could be what we presented at the beginning of last year. You have to go back to the idea of sharing the costs of zloty weakening between banks and customers. If these costs would be split in half, it would not be challenged constitutionally or in international arbitration proceedings. But also disappear problem that the weakest party, or the customer incurs foreign currency risk, which is not able to manage.
Are you waiting for a proposal for the banks?
now, a forum for discussion is no longer the KNF, but the Financial Stability Committee. You have to take into account the interests of borrowers, lenders, but above all the safety of deposits held by banks. KSF also because it is a member of the president of the NBP and NBP should help the currency translation in case the danger of a large depreciation of the zloty. Although in my opinion, would spread it for a few years, such a threat does not exist.
What is the situation of co-operative savings and credit unions?
It works 46 cash . Manager of receivership in four. 17, together with the National Kasa, through the process of establishment of receivers.
How much cash was in last year’s losses? What was the overall result?
The loss of the sector exceeded 50 million zł – so results from the reporting banks themselves, without taking into account adjustments post-examination. The loss suffered 21 credit unions.
The National Association gave support 36 building societies. Four of them have already disappeared. In the 18 counters in spite of this aid are still losses. Here it must be said that the stabilization fund of the National Fund, which granted aid is already disposed. If not reversed the trend on the current results of cash, then the problem will continue to grow. I note that when I talk about the reversal of the trend, it do not mean the results around zero. It must be significant gains that will enable executed large losses of the past.
How much time do you need for this sector to credit unions fill the standard capital?
It will still be a long process. The shortest recovery programs three years. But there are five, and seven. And some cash only recently acknowledged that they must, however, such programs to pursue. In the absence of external support may be that the adopted programs will fail. There are already such signals. Credit unions is not conducive to it, they must operate in an environment of low interest rates.
Are you saying that there is no support. It is yet approved by the European Commission aid program by the Bank Guarantee Fund.
This is a very narrow program, although the amount is not small: it is 3 billion zł. He assumes only support acquisitions. In the sector of credit unions does not have the cash, that could safely assume other of significant size. With interest on the part of banks we have always been problems. For the last two cash ultimately we had no takers. I would prefer to lead the restructuring through acquisitions, because she is on average nearly half cheaper than bankruptcy.
Is there a guarantee that will not happen again the case of SK Bank?
I do not think it was such a threat. We have no such signals.
However, the situation in the cooperative banks is worse than commercial. Banks of recovery proceedings is over 30.
But all cooperative banks is 561. commercial banks is 37, and 7 already has a recovery program, it is known that there will be more. Cooperative banks is a sector that has its problems. They arise from the business model, what there in force: obtaining high-interest deposits placed later in the majority in affiliating banks, plus preferential loans. When in effect, the supervisory activities of the attractiveness of investing any amount in affiliating banks was limited, and as a result of low interest rates, preferential loans are not as profitable, the existing model is exhausted.
The second issue is a defect forms of cooperative, which consists of that the property is very fragmented, which limits control over the actions of management, and especially the presidents of those institutions. We depend on the fact that this control was stronger. So it was not a situation that for hours. 16 is an employee of the bank, and later on the board of control to the president. We proposed the introduction of the term of office on the boards, which would strengthen the corporate governance of cooperative members. And if not tenure, at least the introduction of the possibility of appealing the board of the Financial Supervision Authority. For now, we need to undergo the procedure, which can take several months. That’s what happened in SK Bank, wanting to remove the person from the Board inappropriate, enter the administration.
In the past year rate of return of capital in the banking sector amounted to less than 7 percent. This year, after the entry into force of the bank tax, is unlikely to increase. Will it be a “new normality” in the banks?
I look at the problem of decrease in efficiency from a different perspective: the banks have fewer opportunities to build equity on the basis of profits, through the prism of that credit rating agencies and international institutions estimate stability of individual banks and the entire banking sector. And no longer count on support from the owners. So it is in the world, so it is in Europe. All build equity primarily based on retained earnings.
You need to decide whether you prefer to take the profits on a regular basis in the form of bank tax, whether he wants to increase the security of banks, on the other hand, the ability to create credit, because it capital provides opportunities for development lending. We should strive to ensure that maintaining a decent efficiency – around 10 per cent., If we talk about the rate of return on capital – ensuring the security of deposits, which in the Polish banking system, we have nearly a trillion, and at the same time increase the possibility of lending to the economy. In recent years, half profits were left in the banks. This is because their capital today exceed significantly the amount of 160 million zł, while still four years ago amounted to 110 million zł.
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