Polish gross domestic product will grow by 3.7 percent. this year and next by 3.6 percent. – Assesses the European Commission spring economic forecasts. In February, the European Commission estimated that Polish GDP will amount to 3.5 percent. both in 2016 and in 2017.
published on Tuesday, forecasts indicate that the Polish deficit of the general government will reach 2.6 percent. Of GDP this year and in 2017. – 3.1 percent. GDP, which is slightly above the 3-percent threshold set by EU rules for financial discipline.
According to the report the European Commission, the main driver of economic growth in Poland will remain private consumption. “It is expected that further improvements in the labor market and an increase in government transfers, in particular the new child allowance, increase income and improve consumer confidence,” – says the EC.
The risks to the macroeconomic forecast is rather balanced
The EC adds that the risk to the macroeconomic forecast is rather balanced. The persistence of the problems surrounding the functioning of the Constitutional Court and some of the decisions in the field of economic policy, currently being considered by the authorities, could adversely affect the economic activity – warns the European Commission, stating that it is among a reduction in the retirement age and forced conversion mortgage penny on terms substantially aggravating the banking system.
At the same time – evaluates the EC – investments may prove to be stronger than expected, a quick solution to the problems surrounding the Constitutional Court could improve business confidence.
The Commission forecasts a strong increase in private investment in Poland, although it indicates that investors’ decisions may be affected by “uncertainty about the future direction of economic policy.” Also, Polish exports has continued to grow.
The EC also expects to maintain positive trends in the labor market, including which started in 2015. Increase the share of permanent contracts. Unemployment, which in 2015. Amounted to 7.5 percent. according to Eurostat methodology, is expected to fall to 6.8 percent. in 2016. and to 6.3 percent. next year.
The report indicates that in 2015. Deficit of the general government in Poland was at its lowest level since 2007 and amounted to 2.6 percent. GDP. In the current year this figure is expected to remain at the same level, mainly because expenses related to the introduction of a new child benefit (estimated cost is 0.9 percent. GDP) will be partially covered with one-time revenue from the sale of the frequency of mobile internet, of approx. 0.5 percent. GDP and the revenue from the new tax on banks.
“Assuming that the policy does not change, the deficit should increase in 2017. To 3.1 per cent. Of GDP. This will be mainly the result of a lack of disposable income, as the one from 2016., Increase the cost of child benefit and reduce VAT. this will be a major element of uncertainty when it comes to the financial perspective in 2017 “. – Assesses the European Commission.
“On the one hand are prepared proposals to increase the deficit, as lowering the retirement age and raising the tax-free amount, and on the other hand, there are efforts to improve tax collection and spending on staff salaries may be lower than expected” – adds the Commission. Also predicts an increase in the public debt to GDP in the direction of 52.7 percent. in 2017. The authors point out that the forecast debt ratio are subject to significant uncertainties because of the large part of it can affect a significant share of the tax debt denominated in foreign currencies.
The decrease in the deficit below 3 percent. in 2015. allowed the image of Polish in last year’s excessive deficit procedure. The procedure, which were covered since 2009. Means that the country must adhere to the recommendations of the Council of the EU, which is the group of EU finance ministers. Photo procedure paved the way for a reduction in the government of VAT rates and wage growth in budżetówce and to allocate higher amounts eg. For research and development.
The Ministry of Finance says the forecast of the Commission
The latest European Commission forecast indicates that the EC
positively assesses the fundamentals of the Polish economy – estimated in the commentary
the Spring Commission forecasts the Ministry of Finance. Reserves at the same time,
that the Commission did not take into account the requirements related to the use
stabilizing the planned expenditure rule and the effects of measures
increase tax collection.
“In respect of its winter forecast in the spring round of the European Commission
It raised its forecast for GDP growth, while revising down
the expected level of public finance deficit “- is written in the
Communication MF.
MF also adds that the forecast of the European Commission, as well as
adopted by the government updated convergence program, does not include
discussed current developments relating to the statutory retirement age and
the amount of tax-free income in respect of which did not collapse
yet a final decision.
“The priority objective of the government is to support inclusive growth
economic in the conduct of fiscal policy within the constraints
under national and EU law. Solutions in the area
socio-economic policy will be implemented within the constraints
resulting in particular from stabilizing expenditure rule and
limit of 3 percent. GDP for the general government deficit and
government “- is written in the message MF.
“Such an approach to fiscal policy The government has unambiguously declared in
to the European Commission and the Ecofin Council of renovation Program
convergence “- added.
The modest growth of the EU and the euro zone
EU economy will grow in 2016. In
a rate of 1.8 per cent., and the euro zone at a rate of 1.6 percent. – Provides for the Commission
European latest economic forecasts. Next year GDP
Union will increase by 1.9 per cent., And the euro zone – 1.8 percent.
Published on Tuesday spring forecasts of the European Commission are
slightly worse than forecast at the beginning of February. then the Commission
It predicted GDP growth for the whole of the EU at 1.9 percent. this year and 2
percent. next year, the euro zone – 1.7 percent. in the current year
and 1.9 percent. in the future.
“It is expected that economic growth in Europe remains modest, at
is associated with a slowdown in key trading partners and the
that some of the factors which influence so far in favor of start
wane “- he assessed the European Commission.
She warned that these forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty – also with
Due to persistent geopolitical tensions and the risks associated with
the internal situation in the EU, for example, the pace of structural reforms
and uncertainty before the referendum in the UK on
membership of this country in the Community.
Among the EU countries, the fastest will develop this year, Ireland’s economy (4.9 percent. GDP), Romania (4.2 per cent. Of GDP) and Malta (4.1 per cent. Of GDP). Poland will be the fourth fastest growing state in the EU this year and will record the highest GDP growth among the major economies of the EU.
Greece is still struggling with the effects of the debt crisis, this year is still “below the line”; its GDP shrink by 0.3 percent. However, in 2017. This country should grow at 2.7 per cent. GDP. “We expect that the aid program for Greece will be a success” – said the Commissioner. Economic and Monetary Affairs Pierre Moscovici.
He acknowledged that the growth in the EU and the euro area will be modest, but positive signal is that the increase is in spite of the negative developments in the international environment, such as a downturn in key trading partners, mainly in China. Risks are also related to the internal situation in the EU, for example, the pace of structural reforms and uncertainty before a referendum on Britain’s membership of the country in the Community.
The following is a summary of the Commission’s forecasts
European countries of the European Union and the United States,
Japan and China.
GDP Inflation Unemployment
2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
Belgium 1.6 0.6 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.6 8.5 8.2 7.7
Germany 1.6 0.1 1.7 1.6 0.3 1.5 4.6 4.6 4.7
Estonia 1.1 1.9 2.4 0.1 0.8 2.9 6.2 6.5 7.7
Ireland 7.8 4.9 3.7 0 0.3 1.3 9.4 8.2 7.5
Greece -0.3 2.7 -1.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.6 24.9 24.7 23.6
Spain 3.2 2.6 2.5 -0.6 -0.1 1.4 22.1 20 18.1
France 1.2 1.3 1.7 0.1 0.1 1 10.4 10.2 10.1
Italy 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.1 0.2 1.4 11.9 11.4 11.2
Cyprus 1.6 1.7 2 1.5 1 0.7 15.1 13.4 12.4
Latvia 2.7 2.8 3.1 0.2 0.2 2 9.9 9.6 9.3
Lithuania 1.6 2.8 3.1 -0.7 0.6 1.8 9.1 7.8 6.4
Luxembourg 4.8 3.3 3.9 0.1 -0.1 1.8 6.4 6.2 6.2
Malta 6.3 4.1 3.5 1.2 1.4 2.2 5.4 5.1 5.1
Netherlands 2 1.7 2 0.2 0.4 1.3 6.9 6.4 6.1
Austria 0.9 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.9 1.7 5.7 6.4 6.1
Portugal 1.7 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.7 1.2 12.6 11.6 10.7
Slovenia 2.9 1.7 2.3 -0.8 -0.2 1.6 9 8.6 8.1
Slovakia 3.6 3.2 3.3 -0.3 -0.1 1.5 11.5 10.5 9.5
Finland 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 0 1.3 9.4 9.4 9.3
The euro zone 1.8 0 1.7 1.6 0.2 1.4 10.9 10.3 9.9
Bulgaria 3 2 2.4 -1.1 -0.7 0.9 9.2 8.6 8
Czech Republic 4.2 2.1 2.6 0.3 0.5 1.4 5.1 4.5 4.4
Denmark 1.9 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 1.5 6.2 6 5.7
Croatia 1.6 1.8 2.1 -0.3 -0.6 0.7 16.3 15.5 14.7
Hungary 2.9 2.5 2.8 0.1 0.4 2.3 6.8 6.4 6.1
Polish 3.6 3.7 3.6 -0.7 0 1.6 7.5 6.8 6.3
Romania 3.8 4.2 3.7 -0.4 -0.6 2.5 6.8 6.8 6.7
Sweden 4.1 3.4 2.9 0.7 0.9 1.2 7.4 6.8 6.3
UK. Kingdom 1.8 1.9 0 2.3 0.8 1.6 5.3 5 4.9
EU 1.9 0 1.8 2 0.3 1.5 9.4 8.9 8.5
USA 2.4 2.3 2.2 0.1 1.2 2.2 5.3 4.8 4.5
Japan 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.5 0 1.5 3.4 3.4 3.3
Rotation current Def.sek. fin.pub.
2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
Belgium 1.3 1.8 1.9 -2.6 -2.8 -2.3
Germany 8.8 8.5 8.3 0.7 0.2 0.1
Estonia 2 0.9 1.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.2
Ireland 4.4 4.6 4.6 -2.3 -1.1 -0.6
Greece 0.6 1.3 -7.2 -0.2 -3.1 -1.8
Spain 1.4 1.5 1.3 -5.1 -3.9 -3.1
France -1 -3.5 -1.1 -1.5 -3.4 -3.2
Italy 2.2 2.4 2.3 -2.6 -2.4 -1.9
Cyprus -3.5 -4.2 -4.6 -1 -0.4 0
Latvia -1.2 -2.6 -2.4 -1.3 -1 -1
Lithuania 0 0.1 -0.2 -1.5 -1.1 -0.4
Luxembourg 5.5 5.3 4.8 1.2 1 0.1
Malta 9.9 5.6 4.4 -1.5 -0.9 -0.8
Netherlands 9.2 9.9 9.4 -1.8 -1.7 -1.2
Austria 3.3 8.9 8.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.4
Portugal 0.3 0.5 -4.4 -0.1 -2.7 -2.3
Slovenia 7 7 6.9 -2.9 -2.4 -2.1
Slovakia 0.8 -0.6 -1.1 -2.7 -2.5 -2.3
Finland 0.1 0.3 0.4 -2.7 -2.5 -2.3
Euro zone 3.6 3.7 3.6 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6
Bulgaria 1.9 2.3 2.7 -2.1 -1.6 -2
Czech Republic -2 -1.5 -1.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6
Denmark 7 6.3 6.2 -2.1 -2.5 -1.9
Croatia 5.1 4.4 4 -3.2 -2.7 -2.3
Hungary 4.9 of 5 4.5 -2 -2 -2
Polish 0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -2.6 -2.6 -3.1
Romania -0.9 -2.1 -2.8 -0.7 -2.8 -3.4
Sweden 4.9 5.8 5.7 0 -0.4 -0.7
UK. Kingdom -5.2 -4.9 -4.4 -4.4 -3.4 -2.4
EU 2 2.2 2.1 -2.4 -2.1 -1.8
USA -4 -3.1 -2.8 -3.3 -4.4 -4.4
Japan 3.3 3.9 4.1 -5.2 -4.5 -4.2
From Brussels Anna Widzyk (PAP)
Celebrating / akl / Malk / pr / jba /
No comments:
Post a Comment