Poland remains at the forefront of EU countries in terms of economic growth. This year will be just behind the podium. Overtake her, only Ireland, Romania and Malta.
The European Commission underlined in the analysis that last year’s economic growth at 3.5 percent of GDP was the highest since 2011.
In the next year Poland is to maintain high economic growth, which is expected to reach 3.6 percent of GDP.
Spring economic forecasts, the European Commission are somewhat more favorable for Polish than those of February. Then, the European Commission estimated that the Polish economy will grow at a rate of 3.5 percent. this year and 3.5 percent. in 2017.
Economic growth drives private consumption
According to the Commission the main driver of economic growth in Poland will remain private consumption. – It is expected that further improvements in the labor market and an increase in government transfers, in particular the new child allowance, increase income and improve consumer confidence – says the EC.
He added that the risk to the macroeconomic forecast is rather balanced . The persistence of the problems surrounding the functioning of the Constitutional Court and some of the decisions in the field of economic policy, currently being considered by the authorities, could adversely affect the economic activity – warns the European Commission, stating that it is among a reduction in the retirement age and forced conversion mortgage penny on terms substantially aggravating the banking system.
At the same time – evaluates the EC – investments may prove to be stronger than expected, a quick solution to the problems surrounding the Constitutional Court could improve confidence entrepreneurs.
strong growth in private investment in Poland
the Commission forecasts a strong increase in private investment in Poland, although it indicates that investors’ decisions may be affected by “uncertainty about the future direction of economic policy. ” Also, Polish exports has continued to grow.
The EC also expects to maintain positive trends in the labor market, including which started in 2015. Increase the share of permanent contracts. Unemployment, which in 2015. Amounted to 7.5 percent. according to Eurostat methodology, is expected to fall to 6.8 percent. in 2016. and to 6.3 percent. next year.
A higher deficit in 2017
The report indicates that in 2015. deficit of the general government in Poland was at the lowest level since 2007 and it amounted to 2.6 percent. GDP. In the current year this figure is expected to remain at the same level, mainly because expenses related to the introduction of a new child benefit (estimated cost is 0.9 percent. GDP) will be partially covered with one-time revenue from the sale of the frequency of mobile internet, of approx. 0.5 percent. GDP and the revenue from the new tax on banks.
“Assuming that the policy does not change, the deficit should increase in 2017. To 3.1 per cent. Of GDP. This will be mainly the result of a lack of disposable income, as the one from 2016., increase the cost of child benefit and the reduction of VAT. this will be a major element of uncertainty when it comes to the financial perspective in 2017 “. – Assesses the European Commission.
The increase in the public debt to GDP
“On the one hand are prepared proposals to increase the deficit, as lowering the retirement age and increase the amount of free tax, on the other hand, there are efforts to improve tax collection and spending on staff salaries may be lower than expected “- adds the Commission. Also predicts an increase in the public debt to GDP in the direction of 52.7 percent. in 2017. The authors point out that the forecast debt ratio are subject to significant uncertainties because of the large part of it can affect a significant share of the tax debt denominated in foreign currencies.
The decrease in the deficit below 3 percent. in 2015. allowed the image of Polish in last year’s excessive deficit procedure. The procedure, which were covered since 2009. Means that the country must adhere to the recommendations of the Council of the EU, which is the group of EU finance ministers. Photo procedure paved the way for a reduction in the government of VAT rates and wage growth in budżetówce and to allocate higher amounts eg. For research and development.
MF: positive evaluation of the fundamentals of the Polish economy
Commenting on the report, the European Commission Polish Ministry of finance stated that the forecasts testify that “the EC appreciates foundations of the Polish economy.”
According to the Ministry of finance indicated by the Commission risk of exceeding the 3 percent the deficit stems from the approach, or “disregard the requirements associated with the use of stabilizing expenditure rule and the effects of the planned government measures to increase tax collection.”
a small increase in the euro area and the EU
on the estimates published by the European Commission that the eurozone economy this year will grow at a rate of 1.6 percent.
that’s about one-tenth of a percentage point less than the predictions of February.
A similar slight decrease in the Commission forecasts for the entire EU economy. This year, its GDP is expected to grow by 1.8 percent.
“It is expected that economic growth in Europe remains modest, which is associated with the slowdown in key trading partners and the fact that some of the factors which influence far in favor of starting to wane, “- assessed the European Commission.
warned that these forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty – also because of the continuing geopolitical tensions and risks related to the internal situation in the EU, for example, the pace of structural reforms and uncertainty before the referendum in Britain on membership of the country in the Community.
Leszek Kąsek, senior economist at the World Bank:
Source: Newseria
IAR / PAP, Celebrating
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