According to preliminary data of the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the GDP grew by 3% y / y in the first quarter. 2016. Compared to 4.3% growth in the previous quarter. Eighteen analysts polled by ISBnews expected that GDP growth in the first quarter. This year. averaged 3.42% (forecasts range from 3% to 3.7%). Ministry of Development was forecast earlier that GDP growth in the first quarter. Amounted to 3.8% y / y.
According to economists, the results of the first quarter can really worry, however, subsequent readings should already show higher growth. The greatest growth should occur in the second half of the year, when the good will operate 500+ Program. Most analysts believe that the fall in GDP in the first quarter. To 3% of a one-off. Some analysts predict growth throughout 2016 years of 3.5%, and part of it will be well above this level.
Below are the most interesting comments of analysts:
“It is the data for the second quarter are likely to be better, and achieving growth of 4.0% y / y seem possible at the end of this year.” – Chief economist at Postbank Monika Kurtek.
“It is possible that GDP will grow this year rather by approx. 3.5%, not 3.8% as stipulated by the Ministry of Finance” – chief economist at Bank Plus Wiktor Wojciechowski.
“We believe that the growth of 3.5-3.6% is an appropriate forecast for this year. the 500+ will work positively, but on the way to the end of the year are the factors that may act negatively “- the president of Bank Handlowy Slawomir Sikora.
Below are the most interesting speeches economists explicitly:
” the pace of economic growth at the beginning of this year. slowed down, and what’s more the scale of slowdown turned out to be higher than market expectations. Although GDP growth at 3.0% y / y is still a decent growth, as compared to other EU countries, it can even be described as high, but it is a signal disturbing from the point of view of the expected acceleration of GDP this year to approx. 3.8%. As can be estimated on the basis of monthly data remained a pillar of economic growth in the first months of this year. steadily increasing consumption. There has probably slowed down investment growth, or even decreases, especially that last year the base was very high. Although housing is doing very well, but the exhaustion of the previous EU perspective and at the same time delay in the release of funds from a new perspective, make themselves strongly felt in the case of investment in infrastructure. The lower GDP growth in the first quarter. the effect of the transition. Already the data for the second quarter are likely to be better, and achieving growth of 4.0% y / y seem possible at the end of this year. April 1 this year. The program was launched 500+, under which households has hit this year approx. 16 billion dollars and in the majority of the money will be allocated to consumer spending. This is a significant boost to domestic demand. This means, however, that consumption will continue to increase its contribution to GDP growth, while it would be desirable to increase the share of investment, because they just guarantee the sustainability of economic growth. It remains an open question how important is the structure of GDP growth for the new MPC and whether the increase in the vicinity of 4.0%, but drawn mainly by consumption will be satisfactory to the Council. Today’s figures, even if they are to some extent a surprise for the MPC, certainly will not be treated by the Council as an argument for changing the current monetary policy stance. Further data on economic growth, assuming that it will accelerate as the argument will not be. And although again deepened in recent months, deflation Poland, the Council firstly clearly indicates that it is not (in its opinion) detrimental to the economy, and besides, expects its narrowing in the coming months and therefore it is also not the Council’s argument for a change in interest. Many therefore suggests that in the short term interest rates in Poland will be maintained at the current level of risk, however, is the external situation, including the upcoming strode referendum in Britain on its exit from the EU. If it turns out that the British were in favor of Brexitem, it not in my opinion, ruled that the Council has work “- chief economist at Postbank Monika Kurtek.
” According to preliminary CSO data, in the first quarter of this year GDP growth (decompensated seasonally adjusted) stood at 3.0 per cent., compared to the median forecast of 3.5 percent. yoy. This is the lowest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2013. Once upon a time it was not recorded so weak growth in quarterly terms, seasonally-aligned (minus 0.1 percent.). Currently, it is difficult to find the source of this negative surprises, because GUS preliminary data does not publish the composition of growth. In this respect, our concerns relate primarily to the level of investment (mentioned by the President of the Central Statistical Office Halina Dmochowska at the press conference). This fits very weak in recent months readings of construction. In contrast, the strong point of the data may be the size of private consumption. We believe the fact that this poor result is partly rebound very high growth in the fourth quarter of last year, when it completed projects were co-financed from EU funds. Reading does not change our optimism about the improvement in the coming quarters. We expect to accelerate the growth of private consumption, what will contribute to the good condition of the labor market and a looser fiscal policy. We also expect that the slowdown of the investment will be temporary. The second half of the year will launch projects in the new financial perspective which will be reflected in the rate of investment. In the context of the MPC decision, weaker growth figures may encourage speculation about interest rate cuts. However, in our opinion, more important than the actual pace of GDP growth will be its structure. If it confirms the solid growth in consumption, the argument of a pigeon’s wings narrator for easing will be significantly weakened. It should be emphasized that in the current conditions (and such a low level of interest rates), rate cut will have a miserable effect of stimulating investment, giving primarily additional impetus to the growth of household consumption, which without it would grow solidly. The reduction in interest therefore remains possible scenario in the event of unexpected by us of a deepening slowdown that shown in all the major components of GDP “- economist of Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego Peter Dmitrowski.
” He has so pessimistic scenario, the source of which in our opinion was to all further slowdown in the investment side. With a double-digit decline in construction output in the first quarter, the investment could slow down in the vicinity of 1-2% y / y from 4.4% y / y recorded in the previous quarter. Looking at the individual components of another source of slowdown in GDP growth was in our opinion also public consumption. According to the latest revision of the data by the Central Statistical Office the fourth quarter of last year saw the accumulation of this category, with an increase of 8.7% y / y, which gave up 1,6pp of the strength recorded 4.3% growth. In the first quarter of the contribution of government consumption was significantly lower in our opinion. Despite today’s disappointing data remain confident about the results of individual consumption, and we still expect that it was in the first quarter, slightly stronger than at the end of last year, growing by 3.4% y / y and becoming again the main source of economic growth. Although today’s data still disappointing we assume that with the implementation of the program of 500+ consecutive quarters will bring a significant acceleration in GDP growth in the 4% y / y. The belief that recorded in the first quarter slowdown in economic growth will be short-lived also expressed the last Monetary Policy Council. Consequently, we do not believe that today’s reading has been crucial for the shape of future monetary policy. The data had no impact on the zloty, which in the morning against the euro appreciated against the barrier of 4.40, and yields on 10-year bonds test level of 3% of the wounded at the end of April. Volatility will raise even today evening revision Polish rating by Moody’s “- the analysts of Raiffeisen Polbank.
” Although the scale of the decline in GDP growth turned out to be deeper than our expectations, this does not change our assessment that a clear slowdown in the sq. is a one-off. We do not know the structure of the data for the first quarter. Hence more accurate conclusions regarding. Perspectives rebound in GDP growth will be possible only after the publication of the final data 31.05. According to our assumptions of a strong slowdown in GDP growth was due to two factors: the expiry of the strong growth in public consumption, which in the fourth quarter. 2015. Indeed conquered the result of GDP and the high reference base for investment dynamics (very strong increase in public investment in the first quarter. 2015 .). Although compared to the fourth quarter. 2015. GDP growth fell by almost 1.5 pp., Is already comparing the data for the second and third quarter. 2015. This growth rate decreased by approx. 0.5 percentage points. percent. This was due to just not as much of a significant weakening of economic activity in the first quarter. 2016. As a very strong increase in activity in the fourth quarter. 2015. It is this effect explains the very weak data on. GDP growth in the first quarter. This year. in terms of quarterly changes adjusted for seasonal fluctuations (GDP decline in the first quarter.) hence in our opinion, is not a concern. In addition, this effect intensified the already mentioned above, a very high reference base for public investment. In the first half. 2015. Reported the accumulation of capital expenditure co-financed by the EU under the EU financial perspective l. 2007-2013. Currently, the delay in the disbursement of funds from the so-called. new EU financial perspective translate into a very weak annual growth rate of public investment. Perhaps the very good data on. Export growth in the fourth quarter. 2015., At the beginning of this year. there has been some slowdown in the growth, in particular with the somewhat weaker economic conditions in the global industry, we do not believe however that the scale of the slowdown was significant and stable under the conditions stabilizing the situation in the global economy at the turn of the first and second quarters. Although investment growth will remain at a lower level in the second quarter. (maintenance of low growth in public investment and greater care companies in making investment projects), we expect a clear acceleration of GDP growth already in the second quarter. With the generally stable outlook external factor stimulating stronger GDP growth will be private consumption. In the second quarter. This year. began the payment of benefits under the “500+ Family”, which will result in a surge in household income. Probably in the second quarter. effect will not reveal yet fully, but at a more favorable base of comparison, it is possible rebound in GDP growth in the second quarter. towards 3.5% y / y. When you have fuller effect, income in the second half. We expect the GDP growth rate of above 3.5% y / y. Key to confirm our thesis that in the whole of 2016. GDP growth will exceed 3.5% y / y detailed data on. gross fixed assets and scale of the slowdown in business investment. In our forecast, we adopted a moderate scale limit of investment due to the continuing positive demand prospects. however, if the effect of the higher uncertainty related businesses with issues tax – regulatory proved to be stronger, the scale of the rebound in GDP growth could in the coming quarters turn out to be somewhat weaker “- analysts BOS Bank.
” in our opinion, the main factor conducive to a strong slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter. was strong reduction in investment growth to 2.1% y / y vs. 4.4% in the fourth quarter. the significant slowdown in capital expenditure contributed to the effect of high base last year and a reduction in public investment, as reflected in the deep decline in construction output in the first quarter. and associated with reduced use of EU funds at the beginning of the new financial perspective 2014-2020. Today’s GDP data are consistent with our forecast of economic growth in the whole 2016. (2.9%). An important risk factor up to this forecast is recorded in April upturn in the manufacturing industry in Germany, indicating a slowdown observed from January deterioration in sentiment in the sector. Update of our forecasts for the years 2016-2017 will present on June 6, after the publication of data on the structure of GDP growth in the first quarter. This year. Today’s worse-than-expected GDP data for the first quarter. We consider slightly negative for the zloty and a positive for the debt market. These data, however, remain in the shadow of the assessment made by the Polish rating agency Moody’s, which will be announced today in the evening. We expect that the agency will lower it from A2 to A3 and changed its outlook from stable to negative. The downgrade will, in our opinion contribute to further weakening and increased volatility of the zloty exchange rate, which can be a disincentive Council to monetary easing despite slowing economic growth and record-deep deflation base “- chief economist at Credit Agricole Bank Poland Jakub Borowski.
“I do not yet know the detailed structure changes in the main components of GDP (CSO will release her until the end of May), alenajbardziej likely source of the slowdown in the Polish economy at the beginning of 2016. was the low investment growth. That is suggested both disappointing data on construction output in the first months of this year., As well as data on the economic situation of enterprises and the banks’ credit committees indicating a low propensity of companies to increase investment. In our opinion, the high statistical base of comparison, that is, strong investment growth last year (in the first quarter. 2015. Investments increased by 11.8% y / y), does not explain the slowdown in their growth rate at the beginning of this year. Most likely, our respect slowdown of investment growth in the first quarter. This year. to 3.4% against 4.4% in the fourth quarter. last year It is obsolete. According to recent studies NBP. The situation on the credit market, banks in the first quarter. This year. the first time in over two years saw a decline in demand for loans from businesses, which they believe was caused by lower demand for investment financing. The most recent quarterly survey NBP. Economic situation in the corporate sector (the fourth quarter. 2015). Indicate that the recorded increase in debt relates mainly to companies in total short-term debt. This suggests that this is not incurring obligations for the purposes of extending the production capacity. Certainly the low growth of the investment contributes to the lack of new EU programs, mainly in infrastructure, but also co-financing the enlargement / modernization of production capacity. Without increased investment firms should not assume that the acceleration in GDP growth associated with running the family allowances 500+ proves to be durable. It is of course too early to accurately judge how will shape investment demand in the coming quarters, but the longer the investment growth rate will be limited, the more likely you can expect a slowdown in GDP growth at the end of 2017. Then an ambitious plan to reduce the deficit and debt public saved in the last update of the convergence program simply will not materialize. Today’s data are generally negative for the zloty and Treasury securities market, as it can increase market expectations for interest rate cuts. It can not be ruled out that the GDP will grow this year rather by approx. 3.5%, not 3.8% as stipulated by the Ministry of Finance. No weakening of the zloty after the publication of the preliminary estimate of GDP is probably due to the fact that the exchange rate of our currency is already at a low level in anticipation of the publication of credit ratings by Moody’s. In our view, the Council decides on the easing of monetary policy, because in the near term, positive impact on GDP growth will have a government program 500+ “- chief economist at Bank Plus Wiktor Wojciechowski.
” In today’s fast GUS estimates economic growth in the first quarter. this year. It slowed to 3.0% y / y from 4.3% y / y in the last three months of 2015 which was well below market expectations of approx. 3.5%. Although not yet know the structure of economic growth (this will be announced at the end of the month), it is based on monthly data can be estimated that the greatest investment growth slowed. Today’s data sown a lot of uncertainty when it comes to economic growth prospects for the rest of the year. In light of the weak first quarter of the expected average annual growth of approx. 3.6% may prove to be overly optimistic. The increase in consumption due to the introduction of the “Family 500 plus” certainly raises GDP growth, but 3.6% in 2015. Maybe a little lacking. A strong slowdown in GDP growth is a factor conducive to the weakening of the zloty. If the second quarter would not bring stronger rebound of growth GDP, after the holidays on the rate cuts could again return. We are dealing with prolonged deflation, and on top of GDP growth clearly slowed down “- chief economist at Noble Option Raphael Sadoch.
” It’s not a surprise to me that the first quarter is lower than forecast, but the composition of GDP will be an important factor to evaluate what we’re dealing with. the fourth quarter of last year, when the growth reached 4.3% last year. he was very high. we believe that the growth of 3.5-3.6% is the correct forecast for this year. the 500+ will work positively, but on the way to the end of the year are the factors that can act negatively. They are well known, and today hardly anything to add. I mean, what will happen to the exchange rate, the banking sector in the context of solving the problem loans in Swiss Franach. In the first half of the year, the most important is the referendum in the UK. The result of this referendum will affect not only on the capital markets “- the president of Bank Handlowy Slawomir Sikora.
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