Not only well known institution, which will be headed – a few weeks implemented as a member of the board of the bank. Smooth transition from era to era Glapiński beams will be collision-free for another reason: to a large extent, a professor guarantees the continuation of the policy of the outgoing head of the National Bank of Poland. Policy, which was rather good press with market participants, economists and foreign analysts. Adam Glapiński, which is already the official presidential candidate for the post of President of the National Bank of Poland, and Marek Belka, who is leaving after a six-year term, share beliefs and political past. They combine the idea to the NBP and passion for conservatism in monetary policy. For this koncyliacyjność and the ability to win over opponents themselves.
Repolonizacja banks
A candidate for President of the NBP quite clearly defines the challenge. – The most important tasks for the Polish banking sector and Polish financial, what I see in the coming years, it repolonizacja – at least partially – the banking sector, maintaining the stability of the system with the involvement of NBP in cooperation with the Financial Supervision Authority and the Ministry of Finance or ordering matters related to the loans in francs. Others include. Change in the structure of debt, by which I mean decrease in the share of foreign capital in the Polish debt. And maintaining the stability of gold – lists Adam Glapiński.
Shocking? The problem of excessive dependence of banks operating in Poland since foreign central seen and talked about this a few years ago, the outgoing central bank governor Marek Belka. For example, in the Parliament in July 2011. – Why, ladies and gentlemen, I have problems with foreign banks? Well, ladies and gentlemen, in 2009-2010, when he started the crisis in Europe, we observed that banks, which have their headquarters abroad, sharply reduced funding. Why? Because somewhere in Amsterdam, Turin, Frankfurt or elsewhere were: Jesus, Mary, it goes tragedy. If he is with us, why have there not be? You have to withdraw, you need to clean the balance sheets – Members Belka said. However, he avoided the word “repolonizacja” and preferred to speak of “domestication”, arguing that it is not the origin of the capital is crucial, but the center of decision-making. If it is in the country, even with distributed foreign capital bank is “home”.
Belka and Glapiński even agree as to the purpose, which would give domestication, or – as he prefers candidate president of the National bank of Poland – repolonizacja banks. President Belka said that it is good to have a diversified banking system and the relevant proportion of the capital to the foreign national is a fifty-fifty, maybe 60 to 40 percent. According to Adam Glapiński it would be good to change the relationship, in which roughly 60 percent. the banking sector is in foreign hands, and 40 per cent. national.
– If we could reduce the share of foreign to 40 percent. and increase the country’s 60 per cent., it would be good. Much better would be if the banks operating in Poland were more realistic and “mentally” related to the economic processes taking place here, and not with their foreign parent companies. We happens that foreign central problems are passed on Polish soil – tells us Glapiński.
How to do it? Domestication can be achieved by diluting capital – that is leading to a situation in which the bank is not owned by one large institution, but a few smaller ones. Without a clearly defined central leading role in managing the national board would.
Worse with repolonizacją, which is a supporter of a candidate for new NBP president. Here the role of the leading shareholder would have to worry about the subject of the national capital. In practice among financial institutions are the two that could deal with it. The first is a group of PZU, PKO BP is the second. Policy both influenced by the Treasury, which is also not without significance.
Ticking Bomb: foreign currency loans
Preview settle the issue of foreign currency loans it is controversial only superficially. The “ticking time bomb” in the form of loans Belka said at the beginning of 2014. Online Banking. – Do not be fooled that they do not matter, that people repay them, and you somehow do you deal with the financing of these loans. We can not just leave this problem for the next 20 years – said the bankers, and urged them to solve the problem yourself. To this did not happen.
Belka did not want to hear about the involvement of NBP solution to the problem of foreign currency loans, when such proposals fell during the debate on this issue. What this will do a new president – the as yet unknown. It is clear that there is a political need for the involvement of the central bank in this process, as evidenced by the statement of Jaroslaw Kaczynski for the weekly “across the network” a few weeks ago.
Sam Adam Glapiński about the pronounces with great reserve.
the most important tasks of the new head of the National bank of Poland: repolonizacja banks, maintaining the stability of the system, ordering credit frankowych, changing the debt structure and stable gold
– For today there is no topic NBP participate in solving the problem loans in francs. At the turn of May and June, Office of the President is to present new proposals on the matter. We are in this for the time being completely participate. It is therefore not a moment to even consider whether and to what extent the National Bank of Poland will take part in it – tells us.
The mere indication of the candidate’s problem of foreign currency loans as one of the most important to solve it it is understandable. It is true that loans of this type are supported well. But the proportion of bad is slightly higher than in the case of PLN loans. The problem is that foreign currency loans are a potential threat to the stability of the banking sector, because they carry the risk of changes hardly predictable course. On the one hand, it can cause more problems with repayment, the other banks will swell the assets that you will need to balance liabilities (eg. Collecting more deposits) and to cover additional capital.
tax bank ? Yes, but …
Declaration that the priority is to maintain the stability of the banking sector, it is not surprising. For each central banker’s healthy banking system is the apple of the eye. From the Polish far no major problems before serious perturbations during the outbreak of the crisis, Polish banks rescued conservative investment policy (not buying risky instruments Finance), a relatively conservative credit policy (rather quickly tightened their lending criteria consumer whose wallet fastest spoiled) and conservative policy of supervision, which in due course recommended for example. retention of profits in banks and enlarging thus the capital base. Banks operating in Poland not only emerged unscathed from the crisis, but have been registering growing from year to year gains. In the crisis year 2009. The banking sector recorded profit of 8.7 billion zł. A year later it was already 11.4 billion zł, in 2014. Reach record 16 billion zł.
In this context, both the president of the beam, and aspiring to the role of Adam Glapiński not they are big fans of some government solutions, such as the bank tax. Both clearly it did not criticize. Belka said a pity that instead of bank tax, which can worsen the profitability of banks and the risk of a credit squeeze – decided not to simply increase the CIT rate. Professor Glapiński returns and that in many countries introduced a bank levy, which was founded makroekonomicznie and socially from this point of view, putting it in us or not should arouse controversy.
– On the other hand, it is important whether the tax in a negative way translate into lending. We are seeing the reactions of the banking sector. The Ministry of Finance also seen them and probably would react if something was wrong. For now, it seems that the bank tax will not bring income to the same level as expected. It is a pity that its introduction coincided with matters such as additional load banks increased premium on the BFG or fund to support borrowers in the near term, the potential cost to solve the problem loans in francs – he says.
conservative monetary policy
Adam Glapiński is in favor of maintaining a conservative course of action NBP. The current president of the beam repeatedly said that the Polish economy is balanced, there is no need to resort to non-standard measures and better leave them to crises. And these can not be ruled out. Belka not so long ago drew attention even to the tensions in the emerging markets and ongoing problems with stimulation of the growth rate of most developed economies.
– You can not exclude the occurrence of any crisis phenomena in the global economy. At such times it is good to have a little ammunition. It is good to have the interest rates at which you can still, the poor economic situation and rapid deterioration of the situation, respond – said after the March meeting of the Monetary Policy Council.
In a similar vein, his potential successor.
– NBP has prepared an arsenal of unconventional monetary policy instruments, and which may, as you could see. But we happily grow classical monetary policy. Why? Because we are in such a good situation. We do not need to pour liquidity to banks because of the liquidity in the sector is more than enough. We do not need to use quantitative easing, because there is no problem with us with the availability of credit. If it is, then the problem of demand for credit. From this point of view, a further decrease in interest rates would not give any effect of boosting demand for credit – says Adam Glapiński.
You can see that as long as the situation does not change in a surprising way, rate cuts will not. Rather, it is possible to move only upward. Theoretically, such a situation would be possible if more quickly moved the economy, people and companies would start taking loans and there would be a problem of lack of funds for lending activity. Then the reduction could be a cure, but at the same time the bank would have to consider the risk of so-called. overheating of the economy, and the cure is often the opposite, that a rate hike. Surely there is no topic changes the inflation target of 2.5 percent. and – according to Adam Glapiński – for Polish is now the optimum value. Although in the developed economies, the goal is often lower and amounts to 2 percent. – In the growing economies it is sometimes higher, which is an argument for maintaining the status quo.
Polish situation is relatively good. The economy is balanced, and plan Morawiecki trying to boost growth through innovation is a step in the right direction. Like the 500 plus program, which is Glapiński supporter, he will revive economically small towns and increase the quality of life of children. In these circumstances, the role of the National Bank of Poland is mainly function of stabilizing the financial system.
If Adam Glapiński is president of the National Bank of Poland, it will be the guardian of Polish currency figuratively and literally, as a matter of Polish entry into the euro is not able to agenda. In his opinion on the common currency used by most rich countries with a similar economic structure, ie, eg. Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and France. For Polish still the best choice would be gold with its floating exchange rate, as demonstrated by the recent crisis. The euro area still has problems and can change its architecture. As long as you will not know in which direction the Polish accession to the monetary union will be rather academic issue. Today at the NBP liquidated units, which were to prepare the integration with the euro area, just as it happened in the ministry of finance. This effect of re-evaluation, which took place in Polish politics after the crisis, which was evident already during the reign of the PO. Then the question: “When the euro?” Increasingly been replaced by “Is the euro?”.
Do not liberal, not Keynesian. Schumpeterysta
If you are somewhere danger, it abroad. The professor points to the risk of a negative pulse from there. The problem I see is the fact that despite the quantitative easing applied by the ECB and Bank of England (the pumping of money by central banks in the financial system) effects that are at least modest. The money goes to the banks and other financial institutions, but the impact on the real economy is small. That is, nor has a significantly higher economic growth or inflation, and these measures are somewhere accumulated within the financial system and may pose a threat.
Defenders of the policy indicates that if not for the reaction of central banks it could be worse. But I do not know what will be the impact of these methods on the economy in the long run. Unless will be a technological revolution. Because the times are uncertain, the current state of the global economy well describe theories (including creative destruction) Joseph Schumpeter, the economic idol Glapiński. The new head of the National Bank of Poland is not looking for a cure in Keynesie, Friedman or Hayek.
– As an economist, I am a theorist of conviction schumpeterystą. Moreover, Joseph Schumpeter himself described as “crazy conservative.” I was attracted to it from an early age and I’m still there. Or rather his views, because this is definitely not human design. We live in times schumpeterowskich: high volatility, recurring crises, rapid technological progress and organizational. The development is being done by successive waves of innovation in various fields which profoundly transform reality. Nothing is stable. Nothing better describes the situation in finance as his views – emphasizes Glapiński.
Joseph Schumpeter was an Austrian economist creating their theories in the first half of the last century. In his view, the economy is growing by evolutionary innovations, and his theory describes the dynamic economic cycles. First, we have a state of equilibrium, in which exhausted the previous impulses innovative. They occur in the over-capacity, which leads to stagnation and depression. Then entrepreneurs are beginning to look for new profit opportunities and are the innovative solutions that give businesses employing them profit. This in turn makes the subsequent follow in their footsteps, imitating their solutions. In this way the wave of innovation spreads through the economy, until it reaches the initial state of equilibrium, and the whole story starts from the beginning.
At the same time the Austrian innovation understood very widely, not only as new products or methods production, but also new ways of selling, markets, new sources of raw materials or even the organization of the industry. For example, innovative at some point could be a monopoly. In another of his break. By the way, Schumpeter pointed to the important role of entrepreneurs as they search innovation. On the other hand, critical of the growing economic role of the bureaucracy, or executives in large companies, which lacked vision.
This observation came back in the times of crisis, when analyzed proceeding managers in large corporations. And if the future president of the NBP stipulates that admires him as an economist, not a man, it refers to an Austrian private life, which was quite loose character. Married three times, he said that his greatest ambition is to be the best economist in the world, the best rider in Austria and the best lover in Vienna. Fulfilled two of these conditions, suggesting that a horse runs poorly.
Smooth
Some Like It Hot can say that little the candidates who were preparing to carry out such functions exposed child. – I grew up somewhat in the NBP. He worked here all his life my father as a child ran all the corridors in the bank, went to the local canteen, rode colonies with children of other bank employees. Never me then to banking is not drawn. I did not think I could land here. The good of the country that demanded, and the case of the guided – says Adam Glapiński.
For some time it was known that it is rather him fall election of the president, and president of PiS, because the presidential election is approve the Sejm. – Temperament economy is at his strongest. During the last quarter of his adventure with the policy he lasted for several years. But all the time he was a lecturer and professor. I think that the president Kaczynski him respects and in many respects agree – says Andrzej Urbanski, a former member of the Center Alliance, the head of the Chancellery of President Lech Kaczynski and President of TVP. Adam Glapiński was previously adviser to Lech Kaczynski and remembers this period as one of the most important in his career. In February of 2010. He came as a presidential nominee for the Monetary Policy Council, and this year he was vice-president of NPB.
– This is an intelligent man with a great sense of humor, has the gift of rapid and customs riposte . In total, with a similar character to that is the outgoing president Marek Belka: from a healthy distance to many things. Probably because they both caught a good contact. Both have the ability to reconcile a people with different views, both of whom have extensive experience and professorial titles – describe a potential new president of the employees of the central bank. Therefore, in the building of the NBP no nervous atmosphere. Candidate accepted here as everywhere – it was the best choice possible. The candidate is familiar with the institution from a few weeks implemented as a board member, publicly he says he is happy with how the NBP. There is no reason for concern. There is, rather optimistic mood. But probably will be some changes, because it’s natural. Every new president is chosen each of his closest associates.
If you recall the previous elections, each of them has been a surprise. Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz was not widely known, when it pointed to Lech Walesa. Candidacies Leszek Balcerowicz or Marek Belka was a political gesture aimed president win supporters of other political parties than the one from which he is descended. On the other hand, Sławomir Skrzypek was the second candidate, whom Lech Kaczynski pointed out, when it turned out that the previous – Jan Sulmicki – withdrew his candidacy due to family reasons.
more smooth change on this important function is difficult imagine what confirms the candidate himself. – I’m not a gun. Mentally and experience I am a moderate and conservative. How something is going well, I’m not willing to even improve it, just glad it’s going well. I’m not willing to risk. I am experienced. I have the distance. Through its activities in the MPC I am known. They know me a long time both analysts, banking groups and investors – says Glapiński.
This predictability was a serious argument for an indication of his candidacy by Andrzej Duda. Another – important for the president PiS – is its political and economic past. He was an activist of the underground Solidarity in the management of its structure at the Warsaw School of Economics, which is now the Warsaw School of Economics. – My brother was arrested when I was 17 years old had at home the first revision. So I can tell you that anti-communist attitude I drained from their mother’s milk. In the 80s I was współszefem underground Solidarity SGH cooperated with Wroclaw Democratic Center, which drew me in Adam Lipinski – emphasizes the candidate. He took an active part in the transformation of 1989. In 1990. He was a co-founder of the Center Alliance and the Warsaw branch of the Liberal Democratic Congress, which was initially part of the PC. When the road KLD and PC diverged, Glapiński was in the PC as a vice president of the party. Twice he was minister: government Jan Krzysztof Bielecki was head of the department of construction and spatial planning, and in the next, Jan Olszewski – he was minister of economic cooperation with foreign countries.
– It was revolutionary years, times complete chaos . Revolutionary. But man is constantly learning, and being in the government lets you know how the state. What is the relationship between the ministries, the prime minister, central institutions. How it all works, what is possible and what is impossible. I always tell students that practice economist, unlike theorist should focus on what is possible. What can be done during the term and at the concentrate. You have to measure the strength of intentions – says about his political experiences from that time.
The beginning of the 90s, they show him his adversaries, seeking its relationship with building the activists PC’s Telegraph or even FOZZ. – These are the questions to which I do not want to even respond. I’m not saying that the telegraph was something wrong, but I was not even invited to this or this did not take part. I had no contact life of the case. Similarly with FOZZ. Except that I met Cliff Pineiro at a meeting of Korwin-Mikke Milton Friedman. And it created after the contact – comments.
Later, his relationships with politics began to relax. Yet in 1997. With the Movement for Reconstruction Polish he became a senator in the province Tarnow, but later did not seek re-election. – Politics interests me, but I have not needed to the practice characteristics. I am a little tough and ambitious, I’m definitely over on goal. Being in the back rows of bores me, and being at the front is a huge fever, the burden of everyday life. I do not have such a temperament. Contrary to what they think ordinary Poles to be a politician is very difficult. It requires a special character traits, temperament and above all, can families who agree to such a life. If someone wants to play football or judo, it must have special features. I am in politics, I was quite such a full-time vice president, who was responsible for the preparation of programs – sums up.
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