The biggest optimist when it comes to the results of the first quarter, was the Ministry of Development. According to his estimates, GDP growth was to reach up to 3.8 percent. It’s an impressive pace. Market analysts were betting much worse results, usually 3.3-3.5 percent. Mark, that is the risk that the data will prove to be even lower. I turned out to be.
Why the surprise? We can not much more to say for sure, since the publication of GUS is a preliminary estimate based on incomplete data set. In two weeks we’ll get all the information together with the components. It happens that the CSO revises given earlier data.
Economists give several explanations. First investments. Their growth probably slowed significantly. Public investment stood, he ran out of money the EU and those from a new perspective still waiting. A private companies also invest part of the funding. Secondly, the high growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year. GUS revised it last up to 4.3 percent. This means that a large part of the projects could be completed in the last year. Thirdly statistics. In the first quarter of last year’s results were strong, GDP growth amounted to 3.6 percent. Achieving better results with respect to the high base is difficult.
Is there any real slowdown?
the monthly data from the first quarter were poor. Construction output falls only deepened, suddenly short of breath got the industry, also fared poorly our spending in stores. Is this a one-time swing or a longer trend – the answer will give only new data from the economy.
Inspection of the situation is exacerbated by the fact that the seasonal alignment (the methodology used in the EU, such aligned data is provided by Eurostat and compared with the results of other countries) GDP growth rate falls to 2.5 per cent., and on a quarterly basis, we have once again negative (-0.1 per cent.). In Europe, better than the results we recorded eg. Bulgaria, Cyprus, Spain and Romania.
Economists mBank, who were betting the result of 3.6 per cent., Saying that without the program 500+ maintain up to 3 percent. the rate of growth could be a problem. Jakub Rybacki, an economist at ING Bank Slaski, and adds that economic growth will accelerate, but not necessarily already in the second quarter. – Investment growth may slow down yet. In part, this will be offset by the money you spend with the program of 500+, but its effect fully seen until the second half of the year – he explained.
But there are economists who do not lose their optimism. Monika Kurtek, chief economist Post Bank, believes that this year is possible 4 percent. GDP growth. Of course, thanks to the program 500+, only that even if it is good for growth, it’s not necessarily for its structure. – Consumption will continue to increase its contribution to GDP growth, while it would be desirable to increase the share of investment, because they just guarantee the sustainability of economic growth – explains.
What will the MPC?
the bank economists are wondering now, as a slowdown and a deeper and longer-lasting deflation answer the Monetary Policy Council. For now, its members were in favor of the stabilization of interest rates, however, are the Council of the people who believe that it would reduce the cost of credit, if there has been a slowdown in growth. And that’s what happened.
Poor economic results are also published in Hungary. The growth rate in the first quarter amounted to barely 0.9 percent. In terms of quarter-on-quarter and decreased by 0.8 percent. As in Poland to be guilty investments.
But in Germany, GDP growth is the best for two years. Quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7 percent. (Seasonally adjusted), a year-on-year by 1.6 percent. f
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