This currently has a rating of A2 with a stable outlook.
This will downgrading?
The most probable is considered downgrading that same agency suggested at the beginning of April.
According to economists, the rating could fall by one level to A3, or – and this is most likely the prospect will be lowered to negative.
the reduction rating for Polish? Economist – there is no economic rationale
Already in April, the agency said in a statement that, in its view, the crisis surrounding the Constitutional Court may have a negative impact on the outlook Polish. According to Moody’s, the situation could hurt the investment climate in the country.
Gold meanwhile be strengthened
Meanwhile, the Polish currency on Friday worked out losses. How judge in his commentary Marcin Kiepas with Admiral Markets, just waiting for the decision of Moody’s could justify the observed appreciation of the zloty today.
As the screenplay cuts rating to a large extent already discounted, and some market participants do not believe in it, hence the natural game under the possible positive surprise.
̶ At this hypothesis indicates the strengthening of the zloty against the Hungarian forint. This confirms that his appreciation of major currencies are local factors rather than global, emphasizes Kiepas.
As the same time adds a possible rating cut by Moody’s current A2 level will be negative news and sent a strong warning towards foreign investors.
̶ However, as mentioned above, such a decision should already be priced in. Any other decision, thus lowering the outlook only, or no change, and will support the zloty, says Kiepas.
About hrs. 17.20 euro cost 4.41 zł, the dollar – 3.90 zł, the Swiss franc – 4 zł.
Response decysję agency can be expected on Monday
Matthew Sutowicz, financial markets analyst with Bank Millennium noted that the response to the decision by Moody’s can we expect on Monday.
“If confirmed to lower prospects and rating, in our opinion, such a course of events seems be factored into the valuation of the zloty. GDP data are much weaker than expected and may affect the weakening of the zloty, “- said the analyst.
He added that if he was lowered only prospect (agency outside of a rating also publishes the so-called. perspective – PAP), the euro / zloty should go below the level of 4.40. “Greater strengthen do not expect, because the next pregnancy golden restructuring loans FX and only solution to this issue will allow greater appreciation of the Polish currency,” – he added.
He also note that during Friday’s session “was temporary strengthening gold and descent below the level of 4.40 per euro, which may seem a little surprising in the context of weak data on Polish GDP. ” “From the morning the market speculated that Moody’s will take the decision to reduce the prospects and assign this morning optimism” – rated.
“The second half of the day brought a denial of morning traffic. Contributed to this Minister Henryk Kowalczyk, who in a television interview explained that the possible downgrading by Moody’s should be attributed to the opposition. The market assuming that the Minister Kowalczyk knows what the Moody’s decision , concluded that the reduction took place. This statement influenced the trading eurozłotego and most likely led to the retreat of investors, “- he added.
the head of the Standing Committee of the Council of Ministers Henryk Kowalczyk said Friday in TVN24BiŚ that possible cut by Moody’s will actually cause purely political, not economic.
Government spokesman: there is no economic rationale for the downgrade
There is no indication dopatrywałbym, economic, which could affect the rating downgrade Polish – said on Friday government spokesman Rafal loaf. Poland is a stable, well-developing country – is considered.
Analyst Moody’s about the pros and cons of the Polish economy
ZR. TVN Business and World / x-news
Poland is on the path of economic growth
“Poland is a stable, well-developing country on the path of economic growth, as evidenced by the recent opinion of the European Commission. Also, investing in our many foreign companies, an example of which is even a company Mercedes, which will locate its factory in the southern Polish. There dopatrywałbym is no indication, economic, business, which could affect the reduction or change the rating, “- said the government spokesman.
This increases GDP growth forecasts for the Polish
European Commission spring economic forecasts estimated that the Polish gross domestic product will grow by 3.7 percent. this year and next by 3.6 percent. In February, the European Commission estimated that Polish GDP will amount to 3.5 percent. both in 2016 and in 2017.
The Central Statistical Office announced on Friday in the so-called. a quick estimate of GDP, the GDP calculated in constant prices of the previous year increased in real terms in the first quarter. 2016. by 3.0 percent. Economists called. market consensus assessed that in the first quarter. GDP will grow by 3.5 percent.
The government spokesman was also asked about forecasts of the European Commission, according to which the deficit of the general government in Poland, on the assumption that politics It will not change should increase in 2017. to 3.1 per cent. GDP.
“But the growth is stable and constantly improving the economic situation of our country. There will be situations such as the reign of the PO and PSL, when we had to deal with the recession,” – said Bochenek.
Wladyslaw Kosiniak- Kamysz – there is reason to downgrade
populists are afraid of a negative assessment of credit rating agency. The leader of the Polish Peasant Party Wladyslaw Kosiniak- Kamysz expects a negative assessment. In his opinion, the impact on the rating may be inconsistent economic policy of the Polish government.
On the one hand – as explained in the Sejm, PSL leader – is said to promote Polish companies, and on the other the joy of investments Mercedes. “This is such inconsistency, it really goes to foreign investors,” – said Vladislav Kosiniak- Kamysz.
In mid-January, one of the world’s top three credit rating agencies Standard & amp; Poor’s announced a long-term assessment of Polish debt in foreign currency.
The rating was lowered to BBB + from A-. Rating bounced once on the currency market – the zloty depreciated 2 percent against the euro.
Expert: “I have a bad feeling”
Modern anxiously awaiting the rating agency Moody’s. It refers to the assessment of the creditworthiness of Polish.
The party’s leader Ryszard Petru recalled that in a report from the beginning of April, Moody’s analysts wrote that foreign investors may turn away from the Polish, if the country continues to political uncertainty.
̶ I have a bad feeling, because what is happening in recent months tends to bubble up Polish and do not invest in it – says the leader of the Modern.
Ryszard Petru believes that the rule of Law and Justice economy reacts negatively.
In his view, would provide the CSO made a quick estimate of Gross Domestic Product in the first 3 months of this year.
̶ Morning learned that economic growth in the country sat down. This is not the worst result in Europe, but below expectations. Resulting in reduced investment. This is not the result of the economy, but what is going on PiS – said Ryszard Petru.
Marek Jakubiak (Kukiz’15) by Moody’s
Any downgrade will not result in a gross reduction of economic forecasts in relation to Polish – believes deputy Kukiz’15 Marek Jakubiak.
Deputy Kukiz’15 Marek Jakubiak expects the rating with a large reserve. ̶ These are contractual evaluation. They affect the perception of the Polish economy. The agency has no basis to say that it is worse when reacts differently to even the World Bank. In Poland, there is nothing that could affect the rating downgrade – says Marek Jakubiak.
IAR, PAP, Admiral Markets, jk
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