In the night from Friday to Saturday, Moody’s maintained its rating of Polish debt at A2 / P-1, but changed the outlook from stable to negative.
“As far as the assessment itself, with some hesitation, maybe be considered for the evaluation of objective and acceptable, then I would take a polemic with the revised outlook from stable to negative, because the agency has identified three main factors that drive the decision. the first is some uncertainty associated with a significant ability to finance new, ambitious tasks of social policy. (…) the second factor is the question of a loan denominated in Swiss francs. the third is the deadlock over the Constitutional Court, “- he said.
He added that in the first case of Moody’s decision is” hiperostrożna and fraught with a certain pessimism ” . “Many times, both the Prime Minister that and I informed clearly that our intentions will be implemented according to the schedule of tax revenues to rebuild the country. (…) In the first year of the program realize family-oriented. We work intensively on the reconstruction of own revenues of the Polish budget” – he stressed.
He said that on Friday, Parliament voted to clause against tax evasion, which for years could not find their place in the Polish tax system “because of the powerful resistance lobby optimization, a very powerful economic interests.” He added that two days before the Standing Committee of the Council of Ministers adopted the so-called. package of fuel, which is a comprehensive solution for excise duty, VAT and regulatory concessions in the field of liquid fuels, which have significantly reduced gray zone on the market for liquid fuels.
“Therefore, the risk of which says Moody’s, or a run over the sphere of income and expenditure, in our case is simply exaggerated, non-existent “- the minister stressed.
Referring to the issue of restructuring of loans denominated in Swiss francs, Szałamacha said that it is open. He stressed that President Andrzej Duda made it clear that they do not take steps such that jeopardize the stability of the banking system in Poland, but at the same time consistently will try to solve this problem.
By Szałamacha argue can also be those indicated by Moody’s issue of the stalemate around the Constitutional Court. “We are taking a number of efforts for a solution to this problem, but these are not the actions of the Ministry of Finance. These are the actions parliamentary club, or Prime Minister. Subsequent attempts discussions, negotiations on this issue are made,” – he said. He noted that the opposition is, however, decidedly different opinion as to the causes of this conflict and dug deep in their positions.
According to the head of the Ministry of Finance as a result of the decision of Moody’s on Monday you can expect “slight improvement”, that is, both the strengthening Polish currency and the decline in the profitability of treasury bonds. Szałamacha stipulated that does not want to discuss the scale of zloty appreciation.
The Minister referred to the indicated in the message Moody’s intention of lowering the retirement age by the government. He explained that the Council of Social Dialogue discussed several scenarios and each of them is as accurately counted, so the Ministry of Finance knows what to expect in the future. On the other hand, the Ministry of Finance has room for maneuver – a buffer in the form of measures to increase revenues and decisions as to the standard VAT rate to be taken in the coming days. Finance Minister expressed his conviction that “all these factors together concert is ultimately meaningful decision of all concerned.”
“We want to strongly przenegocjować the retirement age, because when it is the Council for Social Dialogue and the final shape of 2017 will be as assumed in the updated Convergence Programme, “- he added.
Szałamacha asked whether, in connection with the decision of Moody’s and January’s decision by S & amp; P (lowered it rating Polish and outlook from stable to negative), not will want to exacerbate the coefficients for the budget and tighten fiscal policy replied that that is the predictability and credibility of the announced plans. “In connection with this (…) I think that due to the fact that we finance family-oriented program next year and will also implement programs prodochodowe, this goal is what we assumed, that is a deficit of 2.9 percent. GDP and its implementation, “- he explained. He added that it is not impossible while any positive surprise.
The minister said also that the Ministry of Finance in cooperation with the Chancellery is working on a concept or a gradual increase in the tax-free amount, which was founded in APK or systemic change that would cause that currently broken contributions (ZUS and NFZ) and taxes have been bringing together. “At a time when it will be decided, a few weeks after the elaboration of the concept, refine it with the CPM, it will be presented to the public. We assume that its impact will be rather neutral for the budget” – he said.
Among the the reasons for its assessment, Moody’s mentioned in a night communiqué Fiscal risks associated with a significant increase in current expenditure, as well as the intention of lowering the retirement age. As regards expenditure, the agency pointed out, among others, for the benefit of children (under the Family 500 plus) and signaled by raising the tax-free amount.
It also highlighted the deterioration of the investment climate in Poland under the “shift towards a more unpredictable policies and legislation.” In this context, the agency says, about “ambiguities” in relation to “the conversion of mortgage loans denominated in foreign currency” and “protracted stalemate” in the dispute between the government and the Constitutional Court.
At the same time in support of maintaining the rating agency pointed to the country’s economic resilience, which is reflected, among others, the diversification of the economy, which “showed strong real GDP growth, regardless of the adversity from the outside.”
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