Stock exchanges in Europe on Monday gained in value. This trend, however, missed the Warsaw Stock Exchange, where the WIG20 index lost 0.23 percent. Investors are likely to refrain from buying the shares until the announcement of the decision on the Moody’s credit rating Polish.
It is better behaved mWIG40 and sWIG80, which gained 0.3 and 0.07 percent.
Most attention attracted on Monday of PKO BP and PGNiG. Morning because they have published reports for the first quarter of 2016 years. The biggest surprise were the results of the largest operating in the Polish bank. Despite the introduction of a bank tax, which in total cost the company 148.4 million, its profit fell by only 8 million, relative to the data for the same period a year earlier. It also surprised analysts, who did not expect such a result.
Despite the good result, the report is not the end of liked the investors who were not willing to buy shares in the bank. As a result, they have overrated Monday at 1.62 percent.
The results also gave PGNiG, which earned 1 386 million. The higher net profit, the company recorded only once in its history. A good result was achieved despite lower sales by 12 percent. Harder to fall, however, the cost of gas sold, which resulted in an increase in the result. As a result, PGNiG stock price increase in the beginning of this week by 4.73 percent.
The gas company was the clear leader in the WIG20 index during most of the session. On the remaining podium places was the bank Pekao (1.63 percent) and Energa (1.61 percent). At the other end of the scale was BZ WBK, Tauron and mBank. All have lost more than 2 percent.
Very good data from Germany
Excellent reading orders from the economy of our western neighbors helped stock exchange in Frankfurt am Main for an increase of 1.1 percent. Index in March rose by 1.9 percent month-on-month relative to projected growth of 0.7 percent. In February, a similar reading was negative (-0.8 percent). In the year orders increased by 1.7 percent, compared with 0.7 percent a month earlier.
Well Sentix index also fell in May. The indicator shows the expectations of investors from 12 different markets. It reached a value of 6.2 points. The last time it was higher in January this year.
In Western Europe, he gained not only the German DAX. More than percent up went the Swiss SMI. The loss, in turn, passed the stock exchange in Milan, Madrid and Lisbon.
The weakness of the Polish stock exchange surprising that other emerging markets recorded substantial growth. Hungarian BUX gained 1.9 percent and the Turkish XU100 went up by less than a percent. Apparently investors refrain from making major investment decisions until Friday’s announcement Moody’s decision on the assessment of the creditworthiness of Polish.
WSE: Poland lags behind Europe. Capital shyly back
Jacek Frączyk
The beginning of the session Warsaw was not too optimistic. Apart from PGNiG mood was more somber. The farther, the better, but, but … a lot worse than galloping Western Europe.
In the mid-session WIG20 gained 0.3 percent. Only so much, because at the same time the stock market in Germany attacks the 2-percent increase (DAX), France CAC40 grow by 1.4 per cent., And in the UK FTSE100 by 0.6 percent.
executioner sword in the form of Friday Moody’s on us, but still hanging, and investors are not willing to purchase hurray. Gold indeed strengthened against the euro by 0.3 per cent., And the dollar 0.2 percent. But you can not see even those listed in the currencies of gold on our marketplace.
is noticeable upward movement Pekao SA (+1.3 per cent.) and the second highest turnover of the day. Tomorrow will be communicated to the quarterly report. Last week, the DM BOS in the recommendation had no illusions about better results, but today quite good data PKO BP, indicating a growing interest margins, suggest that it may be a surprise.
Do not stop growing PGNiG, which is in the middle the session is now 5.4 percent. Forward. The quarterly report presenting good results for the distribution of gas and heat generation (read more) in an improvement in oil prices, which was a headache for the company (odds Brent grew today over 46 dollars per barrel) may give in the future profits to shareholders.
In the market for smaller companies distinguished by Synthos (+3.1 percent.). A company with a portfolio of Michael Sołowow entered into an agreement to acquire a 80 million euro Franco-Dutch company INEOS Styrenics. The acquisition will increase the processing capacity of styrene group to more than 600 thousand. tons yearly. INEOS Styrenics produces high-quality expandable polystyrene (EPS) for the construction and packaging industry. The mere fact of purchase may indicate that it is at all, ie. On Thursday, investors will not be disappointed with the results of the first quarter.The main towing down are KGHM (-0.8 per cent.) And PKO BP (-1, 2 per cent.), although the losses are smaller than in the morning.
With a history of non-Polish worth noting the increase in the price of Volkswagen (+4.1 percent.). Private investors were indignant plans bonus payment of 63 million euros for the board, which led to losses of 18 billion euros for scams concerning emission diesel engines. Disciplining managers liked the stock market.
At the other extreme are the Italian European banks. The largest of them, the owner of Pekao SA, Unicredit lost 2.5 percent.
WSE: Rally Up PGNiG after good data. What’s not to like investors in PKO BP?
Jacek Frączyk
Extremely differently reacted to stock market investors on the financial data PGNiG and PKO BP. The first surpassed analysts’ expectations, but in this respect the latter has not been a lot worse.
PKO BP to pay in February and March, 148 million zł bank tax, financing it .. . with a smaller interest paid to customers. Read more
As a result, its net profit fell by only 9 million zł. Analysts had expected worse things, and yet the bank rate drops by 1.5 percent. after the first hour of the session. Perhaps you did not like the situation when the interest margin bank saves its profitability – how long can maintain this situation, since the tendency in Europe is reversed, ie. With record low interest rates of central banks borrowing costs will be flying down.
In a diametrically opposite moods of investors introduced the report PGNiG. As we wrote in the previous entry PGNiG earned in the first quarter of 1.4 billion zł, compared to 1.2 million zł year earlier. A predicted only 0.8 billion zł. The result is better than the best forecast of analysts surveyed by ISBNews – you expect that in the best case will be 1.2 billion zł net profit.
The reaction of the exchange rate is an increase of more than 5 percent.
interest in the market is focused around just PGNiG and KGHM (-2.4 per cent.). The latter suffers from falling by 2 percent. the price of copper on the LME. The decline in imports in China to 450 thousand. ton in April to 570 thousand. ton in March is not good news for Lubin combine.
For smaller companies is evident composure sentiment on JSW. After the summit coke prices on April 26, they went back below $ 100 per tonne (Australian coke) and today even below $ 95. $ 100 is a price close to the threshold of profitability of the company with Hawk.
Europe up
Good news came from the economy of our western neighbor. Industrial orders jumped in March, up 1.9 percent. year-on-year (seasonally adjusted), while analysts expected only 0.7 percent. This is the best result since June last year.
It gives you motivation to growth in Europe, especially after declining last week. The German DAX index gained after the session 0.9 per cent., The British FTSE100 0.4 per cent., The French CAC40 0.5 percent.
Falling Italian FTSE MIB 0.8 percent. Needless to say, it was again the banks, with Banco Popolare (-4.7 percent). The head.
China down and Japan enjoys the weaker yen
the lowest levels for eight months reached while the Shanghai Composite losing 2.8 percent. The previously mentioned foreign trade figures leave no illusions. The pace of the Chinese economy sits down.
On the other hand goes up the stock market in Japan – Nikkei 225 gained 0.7 percent. Mood improved appreciation of the dollar, which reduces concerns about further declines in profits of exporters. Yen fell today to 107.6 per dollar, or march towards the strengthening of below 18-month low of 105.5 yen was stopped.
Week marked by Moody’s. Great results PGNiG
Jacek Frączyk
The Chinese do not rest on Sunday, proof of which is publication of results of foreign trade in April. These are still getting worse. This is a bad message for the world economy. For us, the most important this week will be Friday with a rating of Moody’s. And the week of quarterly reports of the largest companies.
Chinese imports fell by 10.9 percent. in April, and exports by 1.8 percent. Expected -5 per cent respectively. and -0.1 percent. This was the eighteenth consecutive month, while the annual growth rate of imports fell, in addition, analysts expected a weakening of the decline, and here … quite the opposite.
This is information for those interested in the condition of the world economy, for which trade with China this locomotive changes. Exports of cars to the Middle Kingdom, for example, a fairly important element of growth in the economy of Germany in the last couple of years, and indirectly our economy, producing parts for German cars.
You Monday 8 : 00 we’ll find out anyway looked like orders in the factories of our western neighbor in March. The forecast says an increase of 0.7 percent compared with February, which would be a welcome change after three months of declines.
On Monday start of the Eurogroup meeting on Greece in the summary of macro-economic developments in Greece. This greeted deliberations yesterday’s 24-hour strike against the government’s reforms of pensions.
With major macroeconomic developments we have even today – after the close of trading in Europe – speech by a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, Neela Kashkariego the opening of the Economic Club of Minesoty. Kashkari is considered neutral in the group and deciding on monetary policy the Fed, so the content of his speech can be a contribution to the discussion on the timing of the first interest rate hike.
Her perspective withdrew after Friday’s weak data from the US labor market. The increase in the number of employees in non-agricultural sectors was much smaller than expected, and it dismisses the risk of accelerating inflation. In addition, correction of previous increases passed a recent oil prices – the main reason for deflationary tendencies in the world and the reason ultraluźnej monetary policy of major central banks. This in turn increases fuel for the stock exchanges.
Today, however, oil goes up, among others, due to higher prices by Saudi Aramco for customers in Asia by as much as 1.1 dollar per barrel, which is the biggest price jump since April last year.
Tuesday
Tuesday is the continuation of important information from the German economy. At 8:00 am we will know the foreign trade data for March (according to forecasts, exports have not changed in relation to February) and industrial production (expected a 0.3 percent decline compared with February). At 10:30 your information about exports and imports also give the United Kingdom.
A few hours earlier, there will be data on consumer inflation in China. Price Index CPI in April was forecast to rise by 2.4 percent. compared with 2.3 percent. a month earlier. This shows that the freedom of the loosening of monetary policy by the People’s Bank of China is limited.
Tuesday
The more knowledge about the UK economy will gain about 10:30 on Wednesday. Then will appear the data on industrial production, which was estimated to rise in March by 0.4 percent. (A month earlier was a decline of 0.3 percent.).
At 16:30, we have the traditional weekly information on US fuel inventories, which will indicate the price trends in the near future. Last week, stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels.
Thursday the Bank of England and the Polish deflation
The penultimate day of the week start with their Japanese data on foreign trade. The balance of the current account, seasonally adjusted was forecast to rise in March to 1.9 trillion yen from 1.73 trillion a month earlier. If expectations come true, it would be the second largest surplus in the past more than seven years. Yen strengthened this year against the dollar by 11 per cent., Of which in the last week by nearly 4 per cent., So the result would be in line with forecasts respectable. Exporters are still less profitable and more cost-effective it gets imports.
On Wednesday at 13:00 will vote the Bank of England on interest rates. Because of the June referendum on EU membership should not expect any movement and the main interest rate should remain at 0.5 percent.
On this day we will have a bunch of data about the April consumer prices from several countries (France, Sweden), but of course we are interested in those of Polish. The preliminary index showed 1.1 percent drop in prices, which is the highest since May last year Oil prices are doing theirs.
MPC is not yet willing to cut interest rates – currency risk in the verification country’s rating by Moody’s is too large.
Friday with a rating
That Friday will be given to the public the latest Moody’s rating for the Polish. It is expected that the reduction of political reasons. So far, it is investment grade A2 with a stable outlook. Its reduction could result in upward movement of yields of government bonds and therefore the cost of debt service.
Yield on 10-year Polish bonds rose to 3.1 percent. At the beginning of April were still at the level of 2.9 percent.
In addition to Polish creditworthiness of important data will be Germany’s GDP for the first quarter (forecast 1.5-percent increase, 8:00) and the inflation rate ( forecast deflation of 0.2 per cent. in April). Information on GDP for the first quarter for the Polish will be announced at 10:00 (forecast initial rate is 3.4 per cent. Increase year on year – a quarter earlier 4.3 per cent.) And the Euro zone at 11:00 (forecast 1.6 percent . growth year on year – in the fourth quarter was the same).
a few hours later (14:30), will be published data on US retail sales for April. It is projected to increase by 0.7 percent. relative to March – a month earlier was a decrease of 0.3, although it was expected a small rise.
The day will end with the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan. According to estimates by May reading of it is expected to increase to 90 points. with 89 points. a month earlier. Above 85 points. It is from October 2014. Previously such levels reached in 2007, before the financial crisis.
The week will end with data from China. On Saturday, we’ll find out what was the April retail sales (forecast 10.5 per cent.) And industrial production (forecast 6.5 per cent.) In the second economy of the world.
Polish season results quarterly – exciting ending. PGNiG unexpectedly good results
In addition to macroeconomic data in Poland we have a continuation of quarterly reports of listed companies. We start with a high C, ie. Virtually “P”: the results of PKO BP (639 million zł profit to 623 million zł forecast and 647 million zł year earlier) and PGNiG (1.4 billion zł profit to 1.2 billion zł year earlier , predicted only 0.8 billion zł). PGNiG result is better than the best forecast of analysts surveyed by ISBNews – you expect that there will be more than 1.2 billion zł net profit.
On Tuesday, the figures for the first three months of the year share Pekao and ING BSK on Wednesday: Energa, PGE, Tauron and the Group Azoty, Thursday: PZU, CCC, JSW, Cyfrowy Polsat, Asseco Poland and Synthos and on Friday: KGHM, Eurocash and Bank Handlowy.
waiting so Polish IPO exciting week with financial data.
In the US on Tuesday, will be published the data last of the great, or Electronic Arts, Walt Disney.
the above text is an expression of personal opinion and the views of the author and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities securities.
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