According to the Bureau of Credit histories ” almost the whole of last year, the demand for consumer credit was less than in the same months of 2015. BIK measures the value submitted loan applications to banks. As a rule, it was a few percent less compared to the 2015. with some exceptions, for example, in December, when it rose by 10 percent.
Less interest brought a decline in the number of loans. For three quarters, the banks sold them just over 5.3 million compared to more than 5.4 million a year earlier.
But at the same time, their total cost increased to 58.7 billion rubles, with the 57,7 billion rubles a year earlier.
Professor Waldemar Rogowski, principal analyst at BIC, says that it is the result of the strategy adopted by the banks. It involves increasing sales of new products to existing customers, which the banks already know. See for yourself the loan that is already on the needs of a particular client, for example, through the Internet service. This proposal does not lend itself to statistics the demand held by the BIK based on the findings of the borrowers.
second, banks are much more profitable to give fewer loans to larger values than their larger quantities into smaller amounts. This is due to them with lower prices. The situation of property of clients facilitates the work, because without having to carry more risk, you can offer more debt.
– When the incomes of customers, banks can agree on their proportional increase of the debt so that the debt-to-income was at a constant level. Banks are guided, what receipts to customer accounts. If they grow, financial institutions are able to quickly assess the potential allowable increase in debt in the relationship to a new, higher revenues, explains the Professor. Rogowski.
Adds that banks take into account in their selling strategies, as good situation on the labour market. The growth of household income also affects the program “Family 500 plus”.
– the Majority of bankers said that in 2017. the mobilization will focus on the segment of consumer loans. With the sale of mortgage loans, there are problems – for various reasons – in this regard, this year should be the year of consumer credit, also from attention to its much higher profitability than in the case of mortgage – assesses analyst at BIK.
According to him, over time, we can observe the phenomenon of the so-called displacement threshold requirements: along with the increase in income and increase in the amounts that will be deferred beneficiaries of the program “Family” 500 plus” consumer appetites will grow. Which will, in addition, the demand for credit.
– Have December in this regard was very good. In total could be converted into 7 billion of sales per month. Still, however, the increase is moderate in the context of how a large injection of financial statements for the economy, for example, the program “Family 500 plus”. Its real results can be seen only in the long term. Is not, however, doubt that it has influence on the demand for credit. This can be seen in profile, clients, half of borrowers who were transported consumer credit in 2016, she was aged 25-44 years, and then one in which can have children, – says Fedor Rogowski.
Effect of payment of additives on children see the representatives of the non-Bank loan companies. Brands Kujawa, Director of risk Department in the company Vivus, said that changing the structure of lending. Clearly less willing to the service – that is, loans at low amounts zaciągane for a short time, often only for a month.
we See, fall, cause, it’s the law antylichwiarska since March last year, which reduced the possibility of curtailment of loans, but improving financial situation due to good market conditions and the program “Family” 500 plus”. At the end of last year, it was a few percent lower than a year earlier, says mark Kujawa.
the Second shift: the “Family” 500 plus” changed the expectations of customers. – Previously, when someone wanted 2 thousand for a TV, this hoodie. When now gets per month 500 roubles, Yes, I could buy a new TV without borrowing, postponing for several months. But how many TVs can still buy? It is better to postpone for several months to borrow a large sum and buy for example a used car. Who has already satisfied the basic needs, now will try to satisfy additional, more costly. This can in a natural way to stimulate demand for wysokokwotowe loans – assesses Director Kujawa.
Another signal is the improvement spłacalności the commitments already made. Vivus is observed in the use of loans secured. Brands Kujawa says that positive trend is clearly visible from the release.
– We attribute this, in particular, with a program of 500 plus. If the amounts that we borrow, the maximum monthly payment is several hundred dollars. The program “Family” 500 plus” is a pretty strong quality support to repay loans. Comparing even December, which is a specific month as people need money and spłacalność often shocked to Jul, the probability niespłacania loans decreased by 25 percent. That’s a lot, he says.
the Same as in other companies. Martin Żuchowski, member of the Board of Directors of the company and the Director of credit risk, improved quality of the portfolio is called visible. Adds that after several months of work of the program “Family” 500 plus” fewer people want to take debt in companies providing loans, but those that do, the delay of the obligation at a higher amount than before. The changes relate to the goals zaciąganych loans. Of the beneficiaries of the program “Family” 500 plus”, new need to borrow, says Martin Żuchowski.
Adds that the credit companies are trying to adapt, looking for new customer groups. – The market is more inclined to young people who have not yet established families, – says a Board member of Providenta.
Family 500 plus has an effect on the credit market. The appetites of people grow
a Program that increases household income
Nearly 3.8 million children already covered by the program “Family” 500 plus”. Their families paid 15.1 billion UAH. This data is from the end of November last year, but eight months of the program was sufficient that the government have made a direct transfer to families on an unprecedented scale, much more from benefits still family whether refund of the tax deduction for children.
According to the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy show that almost 36 percent. the children participating in the program live in rural areas. More than 41 percent. benefits paid on a first or only child is 1.56 million children, including 631,2 thousand UAH. jedynaków. To receive the allowance for the first child, the family must have, respectively, low income: 800 PLN net per person (or 1200 PLN net in case of families with a disabled child).
the Program definitely has an impact on the income of families. This is evidenced by the results of a study of the Polish National Bank. According to them, the real income of households was in the II quarter of 2016. (latest available data) 6.1 more than a year earlier. For more than a third of this growth (2,5%). answer only benefits for children. The impact of income growth on consumption revealed in the third quarter when consumption growth accelerated to 3.9 per cent., from 3.3 the previous quarter.
the Impact of the payments program on the size of the costs may be restricted: the portion of funds spent on savings. NBP believes that afflict the poorest people in the family thanks to the 500 plus to create a buffer of savings – that is, on a rainy day. Haven’t done this before because of too little income. In turn, families with older children can be taken as a complement transitional income, so instead of spending 500 plus”, leaving them for future consumption.
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