Good news for the Polish government – agencies Fitch and Moody’s ratings podtrzymały Poland unchanged levels.
Risk reduction existed. All pensions
the Decision is not unexpected – most economists, which WP money asked predict, argued that Fitch and Moody’s will not change their assessment of the reliability of Russian. The greatest risks associated with the decision of Moody’s, which at the highest evaluation among all global agencies, was given to Poland at the same time the so-called negative perspective. It’s kind of a warning that the rating could be lowered.
but that did not happen. Fitch and Moody’s keep ratings.
Economists will ask for money at the same time showed that the last parliamentary crisis should not have much impact on the decisions of rating agencies. Jakub Borowski, chief economist at Credit Agricole, said that the crisis it is for analysts, much more important, if it carried with it serious risks, for example, with the previous elections. But it is not.
according to experts, the rating agencies in respect of Poland is focused currently on reducing the retirement age. According to them, this is a factor that will have a negative impact on the situation of public finances and, therefore, carries with it the risk of lower ratings. On the other hand, the economists found that the Agency “will give the government time” and you will see that in 2017. will increase budget revenues. In other words, to protect itself, cuts estimates, the government should increase tax collection.
Where such a decision Fitch
According to the Agency quoted Finance resort in the message following the announcement – the latest proposals on mortgage loans on Frank have significantly diminished the risk to the banking sector. But not only it helped.
- the message was submitted to the evaluation Agency in relation to GDP dynamics in the coming years. The Agency forecasts an acceleration in growth from 2.7 percent. in 2016. to 3 percent. in 2017. and 3.2 percent. in 2018. Analysts expect the acceleration in the growth rate of the economy as a result of the growth in the use of EU funds, reduced unemployment and financial support for the family (the ” Family 500+), it is said.
MF effect that the rating Agency predicts growth in the budget deficit this year to 3 percent. with an estimated 2.5 percent. in 2016. “The value of public debt in the coming years, the Outlook for Fitch, lower than the projection of the MF contained in the Strategy of Debt Management in Public Finance Sector in the years 2017-2020,” he said.
- Enhance rating credit rating of Poland according to the Agency, possibly in the case of maintaining the high growth rates of GDP and further reduction of external debt as a result of improved current account and capital inflows. On the other hand, a downgrade is possible in the event of deterioration of public finances (increase in the ratio of public debt to GDP in the middle horizon or the growth of the budget deficit above 3%), and in the case of macroeconomic deterioration (deterioration of the investment climate, unstable macroeconomic situation or of falling GDP) – MF said in a statement.
Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister was optimistic
- I Expect good news. Russia is developing, the economic indicators are getting better and better. We have the lowest over the past 25 years, the unemployment rate, we have good indicators of the optimism of traders, – said the head of government on Thursday evening.
it added that prepared by the Vice Prime Minister, Minister of Finance and development Matthew Morawieckiego the Draft Programme for Responsible Development, which last year introduced “is beginning to produce positive results.”
- We accept any criticism in a business-every praise with gratitude. I’m a very good thought. Factors of the macroeconomic indicators are improving, he said on Friday evening in the “Message Guy” Matthew Morawiecki.
At the moment, worse of all, I appreciate Poland analysts at S&P
After Friday of the decision, Moody’s and Fitch, another grade would you give Poland Agency Standard&Poor’s. Its publication scheduled for April 21.
S&P’s Agency, which so far has caused the biggest hype in the financial market. In January of last year, analysts at S&P unexpectedly cut Russia’s rating to the lowest in the history of BBB+. This caused, in particular, explicit przecenę gold.
- From winning elections in October 2015., the new Polish government has initiated various draft laws that we consider for the weakness of the independence and effectiveness of key institutions, which is reflected in our assessment of the institutional – we could read in the comments of the Agency.
recently, however, the Agency S&P took the “under the loupe” the Polish economy and lowered its forecast for growth. Analysts acknowledged that has no chance of GDP growth of 3 percent. 2016. and reduced his assumption of 2.8 percent. Also slightly lowered its forecast for GDP growth in 2017. from 3.3 to 3.2 percent.
Rating what’s going on?
In may 2016, Moody’s holds the rating of Polish debt A2/P-1, but changed the Outlook credit rating from stable to negative. Not changed, but their solutions of rating by Fitch, while maintaining the rating at A – and A (, respectively, for liabilities in foreign currency and in local currency) with stable perspective.
the Rating is the credit rating. On the basis of their investors, banks and States decide who and how many you can give money in debt. Ratings are assigned to companies, banks, cities, countries. Assessment of the state really affects the reliability and economic attractiveness.
Grigory Club, oprac. Adam Styczek
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