the Ministry of Finance unofficially acknowledges that the public sector deficit and the government could fall in 2016. below 2.4 percent. GDP. This is a key indicator for assessing the state of Polish finances, prepared by the European Commission. Resort is waiting for more complete data on performance in December and information from the local authorities. If these estimates are confirmed, this deficiency would not only have been less than the previous year (2.6 per cent. Of GDP), but this would be the second, Yes a good result since Poland’s accession to the EU (record 1.9 percent. GDP in 2007).
the Situation in the Central budget is more than good. After 11 months, the deficit amounted to slightly more than half of the annual plan. Gregory Maliszewski, chief economist at Bank Millennium, said that it is possible to consider that the budget deficit for the year below the assumptions of the so-called implementation of the plan in 2016. Pay attention to what good results are to a large extent the merit of the so-called disposable income, that is, salaries are almost 8 billion roubles net profit of the national BANK and approx. a 9.2 billion from the auction of LTE frequencies. But we also have the best collection of taxes, primarily VAT. And this is evident not only in large revenues from this tax but also a higher effective tax rate,” says the economist.
In total revenues from VAT until the end of November was 8.4 billion higher than a year ago. The annual plan had already been implemented at 94.4%. In December, probably, did not reach any refraction effects from the VAT, for the first time since mid 2014. – we had a price increase in a year. And so the base for this tax was also higher.
Another reason for the low deficit is an expense transaction abstinence. Implementation of the plan of expenses after 11 months was 87.4 percent. – that is, relatively little.
– If you have to put on this excess in local authorities, which after three quarters amounted to 22 billion rubles, and if it persists also at the end of the year, a descent from the deficit of the whole public sector and local authorities below 2.4 percent. GDP will be, as most real. Although you need to keep in mind that on the other hand, we are slower from the Shrine of economic growth, which in this case is some risk factor, says Gregory Maliszewski.
From the threshold of 3 percent. Of GDP deficit of the public Finance sector, the excess of which threatens the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure remains 0.6 percent. Of GDP, i.e. approximately UAH 12 billion.
But it only seems to be, disputes a gap, because the catalog of rising costs is quite large. More than 2 billion roubles in 2017. cost reduction of the retirement age. It is in order to minimize these costs, the government has decided to impose a solution only available from October this year. Another value is the full implementation of the program to 500 plus expenses for these purposes will increase to 6 billion than last year (the program started from April 2016.). To this is added more than 2.5 billion rubles for a new method of indexing pensions and benefits. Only these three to spend 10.5 billion rubles, and basically exhaust the budget gap. On the other hand, GDP will grow still. Higher budget revenues plus get home okay. 10 billion payout of profits with the BANK. But the profit from the NBP does not reduce the deficit of public Finance sector in the EU methodology.
but I’m sure a good result for the public Finance sector this year puts off the prospect of possible sanctions from the European Commission due to the incontinence of the way of going off the deficit of public Finance sector. Because this will be the third consecutive year, when the deficit not only decreases year after year, but below the threshold for convergence (3 per cent. GDP, although in the case of Poland is added, the so-called relief for US).
most of the money in pension funds will go in the third post
adopted on Friday the government review of the pension consist of two documents. One relates to the evaluation of pillar capital and the third pillar, and the other is the whole pension system of social insurance. How it relates to our information, soon have to encounter the government team, whose task will be to develop (on the basis of results of consideration) proposals, change.
As we wrote earlier, as a result of the review excluded a detailed proposal regarding the limitation on the ability of duplicating retired. In the original version there was a proposal to persons who have reached the statutory retirement age to embrace such constraints, which concern pensioners and earlier retirees. That is a decline of benefits if a pensioner earns 70-130%. the average wage, or suspension of payment of pension, if he receives a salary above the limit. In the end, we have already mentioned, in the process state event fell. For this he was guidance for the development of incentives for potential retirees, for longer-term and more complete information to be submitted by ZUS future pensioners about their entitlements.
In this information, it can be forecast if higher allowance if interested, leave a decision on transition to retirement, for example, in a year or two. Another result of the review is the green light for proposals from Matthew Morawieckiego changes in the pension funds. He suggests that a quarter of the assets of pension funds values of 35 billion rubles transferred to the Fund Reserve of the Demographic situation to social security. Their cost will be recorded on subkontach insured. The rest, that is 105 billion rubles, will be transferred to the accounts of insured persons, in the third column. At the same time should be extended the principle of insurance employees writable by default.
1.9 percent. GDP was as much the deficit of the public sector and local government in 2007. This was the minimum value since Poland’s accession to the EU
27.6 billion rubles-this is the deficit of the Central budget for the 11 months of 2016, only 50.4 percent. annual plan
22.1 billion this excess was the local authorities, after three quarters of this year.
2.4 percent. GDP is forecast by the European Commission for the Polish public sector deficit and local government
2.9%. The GDP is the government forecast a deficit in 2017.
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