There are no reasons to change feet and saving ammunition
crisis, the impact of negative interest rates in Europe on the situation of Polish banks, the first days
new MPC and the specific evaluation plan Morawiecki minister – are the main topics press conference after the meeting of the decision-making
Monetary Policy Council.
The Monetary Policy Council decided again
leave interest rates unchanged at a record low level.
It was also the first meeting of the Council in a completely different composition
- With 9 members present until 7 has been set up in recent weeks.
Below are the most important statements that have died during Wednesday’s
press conference with the President of the National Bank of Poland Marek Belka. Apart from the president
Polish National Bank in the conference was attended also by two new members
MPC – Marek Chrzanowski and Jerzy Kropiwnicki.
Council looks at the world
At the outset of today’s conference, Marek Belka read the content of the message
MPC. Its content is available in the whole
the NBP , the most interesting parts are given below:
- Increase
global economic activity remains moderate, while in
recently increased uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy.
- European
Central Bank lowered interest rates in March and increased scale loosening
quantitative. In the United States, despite the increase in interest rates
December and signaling further growth in the coming quarters, increased
uncertainty about the future direction of the local monetary policy.
- In Poland
It remains stable economic growth, and the data for the fourth quarter. confirmed even slight
acceleration of GDP growth.
- Under the
March projection of NECMOD – prepared under the assumption of unchanged
NBP interest rates, taking into account the data available until 23 February 2016.
- Annual growth of prices will
a 50-percent probability within the range of 0.9 – 0.2% in 2016. (to
0.4 – 1.8% in the projection of November 2015.), 0.2 and 2.3% in 2017. (Compared to 0.4
-2.5%) And 0.4 and 2.8% in 2018.
- The annual GDP growth projection this will be a 50-percent
likely in the range of 3.0-4.5% in 2016. (2.3 to -4.3% in the projection
from November 2015.) 2.6 -4.8% in 2017. (to 2,4-4,6%) and 2,1-4,4% in 2018.
Replies NBP President Marek Belka
questions from journalists
1. How much for the state
important in the subsequent decisions will be yesterday’s decision by the ECB? whether the state
you allow the possibility of cuts this year?
Certainly we do not exclude. In contrast, we observe the impact of decisions
ECB on the behavior of the market in Poland, the exchange rate, the demand for Treasury
securities. We have seen the first results immediate, but they were
they are not very strong and transient. I do not know how should be taken seriously -
I think seriously of the definition of (laughs) – President Draghi that this is already a “wall”
They have been exhausted the possibilities of further reduction in interest.
We look for potential dangers in severity
quantitative easing – buying bonds and other financial assets – our
financial markets and our banks. You can not rule out a the impact of negative deposit rates on the situation of Polish banks .
2. Last sentence
currently appears to be conservative and supports the opinion of a few months, that
there is no need to lower the foot. Whether, apart from the issue of the ECB, after this projection, which the State
They received, which once again extends the horizon of the occurrence of deflation, continued
you remain steadfast?
I understand that the decisions and actions of the ECB is an expression of determination
the fight against deflation, which in the conditions of a number of euro area countries is a phenomenon
very dangerous. Just in case of over-indebtedness, as well as
even for relatively moderate increases in Europe, in such conditions
action is needed on the part of monetary policy.
In Poland there is no
this situation . Economic growth accelerated, the situation on the labor market
It improves. We do not think also that the rate cuts could cause today
or lowering interest rates on loans – the rest they grow at a pace which
Europe can envy. For this
Because of did not change any basic
parameters that would cause that we can change your mind.
Besides, it also discussed a month ago, but it is worth repeating, enhance some risk, whether it is flowing from emerging markets – we mean
China, but also other countries. One can not exclude the occurrence of some events
crisis in the global economy. On
such times it is good to have a little ammo . It is good to have such feet
rates, with which you can have on the poor economic situation and rapid
deterioration of the situation, to react. It is characteristic that the position that
probably you heard the state of my mouth a few months ago, still in
the presence of the old council, one hundred percent
is supported in the new MPC .
3. You used to formulate
“Not rule out” – that is some easing of the position?
Scenario stabilization is most likely. No
this means that we exclude the effect of interest rates. What’s more, today we discussed that you should use this period to clarify
our view of the different possible scenarios in the global economy and Polish,
and the impact of the materialization of such scenarios on possible adjustments in monetary policy.
4. There were voices,
that if you remain steadfast to the feet of basic, it skłonicie
the reduction in the rate of reserves …
No, no, for a simple reason. It makes sense when the system
the bank is not in a situation of excess liquidity. Well, because what that will increase or
we reduce the reserve ratio, the excess liquidity is important. After all, it is not
meaning then.
5. We have virtually the entire
Council in the new composition, which inherited the monetary policy guidelines
the old Council. Will the state waited until September to making changes?
Do you back up, realize that the policy of direct inflation targeting?
First of all I want to say that the new Council as it were
take note of this – maybe not in the formal sense, because everyone reads those documents,
This primer action MPC member. We find today during the discussion
reference to these assumptions. We explain ourselves where we are in their implementation
and what the problems are. We have not discussed
the need to modify the course of the year monetary policy . I
This does not exclude, but none of such proposals does not occur. Perhaps earlier
than usual start in the Council discussions on the assumptions for the next year and
possible modifications.
I would say that more than half of the world’s central banks, which implement strategies
direct inflation targeting can not hit the target . Usually it is deflation, but not
I’ve heard of any bank which therefore departed from the strategy
implementation of this strategy or considering changing this purpose. This question also
mich colleagues, so please …
Kropownicki:
a situation in which, according to my basic reasons for deflation are beyond
a decision that could collapse in our country – I am talking here about the prices sources
energy and food prices, I might add clothing and footwear, which in my
belief is associated with the policy of our neighbors. On the other hand, with
into account the fact that unemployment is decreasing, the pace of growth is revised upwards, according to
my intuition assumption of 4% for this year is not a special heroism and
I see no reason to fix what works well.
Therefore, I
a supporter of conservative policy in this regard . Just we had it
Fortunately, we were together with most of the previous MPC members and therefore had
not only the opportunity to learn not only from what was in the documents, but
Also the method of assessment and reasoning. From this perspective, I entered rather
softly thus analyzing, thinking, decision-making, which was
correct my predecessors. You can say at the end of the I see no reason to fix what works well . In general, then
getting worse.
Marek Chrzanowski: I
I add that I agree with Professor Kropiwnicki. Soft-entered the work MPC because we could get to know the opinion of the old
members. Assumptions of monetary policy inherited from the previous term are
or assumptions, which I accept. This
conservative approach to monetary policy also cheated in interviews .
I see no reason why we changed the strategy of inflation targeting, despite the fact that
we have to deal with deflation, but deflation imported. We look also at
core inflation, which is admittedly low, but this is inflation. We can not see that imported deflation
harm the economy.
6. Do not you think the state,
that so defined the target is dead letter?
Kropiwnicki I gave to convince that this target should be
regarded as a medium-term target. Since the analysis conducted in this
perspective does not show dramatic variations, so the suggestion that probably
somewhere in the autumn – in September or later – we proceed to analyze whether
Basic size should or should not be changed, I feel that
is accurate forecast. If the situation does not change, then I will tell
for backup of this policy, which
good for Poland.
7. You said that
You can not exclude the impact of what is happening in the West, the situation
the Polish banking sector. What do you mean?
For example, the ability to inflow of Polish banks
short-term deposits. These deposits are in those countries, where they are
the ECB, it shall bear interest at the level of -0.4%, and with us at 0% in
the worst case. This inflow of deposits,
which do not observe, but we take this into account, we would have the potential
destabilizing for banks . Very carefully to observe. How such a thing
happens, we will have to suggest action.
8. As tax
assets will affect the ability to offer loans by banks?
It is too early to draw any conclusions in this regard.
The first effect is the increase in demand of our local banks for Treasury
securities because they are not taxed. What is the conclusion?
This probably means that interest rate
the TS is lower than would have been without
tax.
9. Is it really only
abroad is a source of uncertainty for the economic growth forecasts, which
once again has raised?
In the short term, yes, I think so. By contrast, the
I said many times that we are to some degree concerned, as it will run budget financing
in the long term . We know that the successful financing plans
Polish government expenditure is largely conditioned by efficiency
activities related to the improvement in tax collection. We will watch with
month to month, with great interest, if positive results are
visible. It is very important and has to do with some risk, there’s no beating around the
cotton.
10. They were state
briefed by the Minister Morawiecki with his plan. On whose initiative
there was a meeting? What are the impressions of the Council? What is the share of the NBP
idea?
He started to ask whether I suggested
Morawiecki, whether he did it. We just talked a long time ago that
it would be worth his program to confront the MPC. With the rest, not only because he and the board
He was present. I am very happy that this happened. It was a meeting of
a seminar, during which fulfilled a very important exchange
views on this, in which direction should go further over wages
operationalization of the strategy. Of course, you can have eg. Some discrepancies
views on the diagnosis. Frankly this matter rather tertiary, will we be wondering what it means
“Middle income trap”. The world hardly anyone knows, it is rather the concept
intuitive. Ie. in an intuitive way, all this concept in the world
we use.
The discussion fell numerous comments, which enriched the program.
The most interesting from my point of view was the point I Mateusz Morawiecki
received positively, and even with relief. Namely, very bad happens, that the discussion around this program focuses
the money , and should be on the regulations. On the policy changes that
uruchamiałyby mechanisms of growth. Please
I believe – in Poland, there is no shortage of money .
For the public large sums of appeal to the imagination,
They show how ambitious and powerful is this modernization program. much
more important than adding a catfish and a variety trillion is a discussion on regulations and
what kind of instruments should be deployed to was higher propensity to
invest. I must say that minister
Morawiecki not only agree with this, but relieved agreed . For this we should
focus. No one mentioned the problems of lack of funds
or associated with the expectation of direct participation in the NBP
range.
I’ve read some of the well-informed sources that the “MPC
He decided “. Well, today we have decided not to change interest. If support for the program Morawiecki,
This fantastically . It was just a very interesting meeting seminar
Both sides gave a lot and we are interested in the next stage when the
the program is “instrumented” to again be able to post messages.
11. You say that you do not
changed in any respect the position on the policy parameters
monetary, since it does not preclude Mr. reduction …
I do not rule out also increases in some horizon
time …
12. A month ago, he said
you think you can not see the lifting or lowering the feet
rates. Today, that does not preclude you reduce interest rates. What unambiguous
happened?
Well, I was wrong. “I must have misspoken” (laughs). This
famous quote from Alan Greenspan.
Almost all members of the MPC – I mean new -
indicate that there is room for interest rate reductions, but they are not willing to their
reduce. What for you is the limitation of this space? From what I understand
it is a possibility downturn?
Lodz President Jerzy :
The reasons why I do not see at the moment reasons for such a decision – in
one or the other – have already introduced a moment ago. I will repeat
repeatedly. I am against
improving what is good about.
Marek Chrzanowski:
This is the aspect of the stability of the financial system. We have a balance and do not need to spoil her.
13. Is the latest
projected output gap is closing and is still negative?
closing up. Slowly.
On Tuesday it will be possible accurately hear my colleagues during
hearing screening.
14. The question of course
zloty. As far as this factor is important – if there is a pain threshold?
The zloty weakened a few percent over the last months.
Now bravely making up for the losses, he strengthened. On balance, I have to say that
It shows the stability and strength. I must say that this is reflected in the
actually very good fundamentals of the Polish economy.
15. bank tax
It operates only for a month. What is the impact on the conduct of monetary policy?
The situation has stabilized. indeed, the first
month of light caused destabilization of the POLONIA rate, but it
It is a factor with which the banks will have to deal with. They will have different
manage assets. We do not anticipate problems here that will last, and besides,
that, it is of little importance for monetary policy.
16. Is this a joke, is it serious? To what extent
projection, which we watch and the subsequent reduction in the path of inflation increases
the likelihood of lower interest rates?
But what’s the joke?
You said you jokes that misspoken and confusion …
Good God, how easy it is to destabilize the world (laughs).
If I am a responsible man, I can not in the long term
exclude increases or reductions feet. And so it was to be understood. Sincerely
We are saying today promised to soon discuss deeper
the following situation – What scenario would lead us to increase
feet or a reduction? Or even more gently – to change the attitude, sometime
We used such a concept. Today we do not not rule out that in some perspective
you may need adjustment in monetary policy. Being a new collective,
we wanted to discuss what conditions would induce us to change
policy. It has nothing to do with a tendency to changes in interest now.
Our conference has
process similar to yesterday’s conference of the ECB, Mario Draghi when he said …
How can you compare us with the ECB? I’m sorry, we
we very stable and predictable monetary policy (laughs).
17. Is the new Council
discussed changes in communicating with the market?
No, it’s a problem that needs to be “grate”. We discussed
these issues, we have internal rules that we inherited from the previous
Council. We wanted to go back to see what are the dangers. There is no
However, conclusions and does not have to be, because I do not have to change existing
rules. Communication problems are usually a function of scattering opinion.
18. Did you get
official information from the Minister of Finance on the recommendation of Mr. candidature
EBRD?
Of course, otherwise I could not send this recommendation.
I say that very well and properly is that the nomination and
support from the government has been formulated and became the official
candidate. I wish to reassure all those who are concerned about my
future that the chances are minimal . Most likely, the state does not
I leave, do not worry.
Follow @M_Zulawinski
Michael Żuławiński
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