Surprising promotion Polish, clearly a slowdown in the euro zone and the “industrial turbulence” in Ireland, Sweden and the UK – are the main topics of the third this year on the
European PMI indices. Place the leader defended the Czech Republic.
PMI index (Purchasing Managers Index, pol. Index
Managers Logistics) is formed on the basis of anonymous surveys
among company managers. They correspond to the questions on issues such
as orders, employment, payments, money or stocks.
This indicator is considered a leading indicator. A value between 0
100 pts., while higher than 50 points. It indicates that the sector is expanding,
while the lower indicates deterioration of the situation. For most countries, the index
PMI prepares Markit Economics, in the case of some (Hungary, Switzerland,
Sweden) engaged in the domestic entities.
Table of full results are at the end of the article
The third in this year’s European edition of festival industrial PMI indices
will start from the Russia. The indicator for the manufacturing sector of the country
He reached in February 49.3 points. to
49.8 points. in January and 48.7 points. in December. Earlier, the Russian factory
recorded a profit of less than 50 points. for 11 consecutive months. Of particular note
deserves the highest in 19 months decrease in export orders sub-index.
Our next stop is the Ireland . The PMI index for the
the country fell sharply from 54.3 points. in January to 52.9 points. in February. This is the lowest reading since February 2014. At the same time
Industrial PMI former “Celtic Tiger” has remained above
50 key points. from 33 months in a row. In a new report out
economists attracts primarily a decline in new export orders
(Sub-index lowest since 2 years), which is explained by the appreciation of the euro.
On the other hand, industrial PMI for Turkey
He reached the level of 50.3 points. to 50.9 points. in January. Thus, the index
moving away from the December 13-month peak. As pointed out by Markit on
condition Turkish plants, and in particular export demand, again
influenced by geopolitical factors.
In recent leader – that is, the Sweden – reported a veritable slump. IN
February pointer stopped on the 51.7
point. to 55.5 points. in January and expectations at the level of 55 points. It is
the lowest reading since August 2014. Importantly, below the key level of 50
point. indexes have fallen orders and export orders.
– Our main scenario is the continuation of the
recovery later in the year. Today’s PMI data do not change this
image. The turbulence on the markets, however, are a risk factor – wrote in
commentary Andreas Wallstrom of Nordea bank.
At precisely 9:00 am we learned the value of index PMI for Polish . wider
discussion of this publication is available in the
article.
December painful decline for the second month in a row manufacturing PMI rises
for Hungary . Hungarian Organization
Logistics is not only slightly revised January reading (0.1 pts. To 53.1
pts.), but also he said that in February the industrial PMI was 54.8 Balaton
point. The latest figure is higher than the long-term average (52.2 pts.) And
the average readings for February (53.5 pts.).
When analyzing the Hungarian data should be remembered, however, that eg. In September
Barclays signaled that in his opinion the Hungarian PMI has a too
high volatility – you confirm we have now – that well illustrate
economic growth.
The weaker data again welled with Netherlands , where the February PMI ( 51.7
point. ) has fallen significantly relative to January (52.4 pts.). This is the worst result since 18
months.
The only Western European country with the PMI index below 50 points. remains
Norway . In the industrial sector of the country struggling with a depreciating oil
oil was recorded in February 48.4 points.
to 49.2 points. in January and expectations at the level of 48 points. For the last time
Norwegian industry has remained above the line exactly a year ago.
The optimistic tone again sailed with Spain , although industrial
PMI for the country amounted to 54.1 points in February. to 55.4 points. in January. analysts
They expected to result in this area. It is worth noting that the fourth largest
the euro zone economy recorded readings above 50 points. continuously from December
2013. As pointed out by Markit in the commentary, the Spanish industry is not
harms even the uncertain situation on the political scene.
Good news again welled with Swiss
where Credit Suisse presented concerning the PMI for the manufacturing sector. In February
The Helvetii reported an increase to 51.6 index points. to 50 points. in January. He was
This reading up about equal to 2 points higher than analysts’ expectations.
Miano “industrial European champion” preserved Czech Republic , even though the local PMI
manufacturing fell from 56.9 points. to 55.5
point.
Our southern neighbors improve the conditions for record continuously since May 2013
r., and recent results remain well above the long-term
average (52.9 pts.). Good data on the PMI suggest that the Czech Republic
will again be one of the fastest growing economies in the EU (new
Eurostat data will be announced on March 8). At the same time, analysts Markit pointed out,
that the fate of the Czech economy are very closely connected with the situation in the euro zone.
Of the three European players “heavyweight” as
First under the microscope hit Italy , where industrial PMI index was 52.2 points. in February to 53.2 points. in
January and expectations of the order of 52.5 points. This is the worst result for 12 months. Despite
This disappointment is worth noting that the result above 50 points. Italia already recorded
13 months, and the current result is only slightly worse than last year
average (53.7 points).
A little worse than the initial
reading (50.3 pts.) fell industrial PMI for France . The final score in February
is 50.2 points. to the neutral 50 points. in January. In the last 3 years
French industry remained over the line only eight times. on result
He influenced primarily a decline in new orders. The makers of the report caught first
all of the first half year decline in orders subindex. In their commentary on
about the French industry and the economy still plays a major role, however, the term
“Stagnation.”
It is better instead of the initial
data (50.2 pts.) presented the final reading of the index for Germany .
Result 50.5 points. , however, mean a decrease in relation to January up by 1.8 points. and lowest
score of 15 months. Noted today, the result is also the fifteenth in a row
above 50 points.
– It seems that the German industrial engine
They run out of power. Given the weak internal and external demand and low
increase in production, companies in this sector for the first time in 1.5 years reduced
employment. (…) Data inflict a serious blow to any hopes
a significant increase in German industrial sector at the beginning of this year -
Oliver wrote in a commentary Kolodseike, economist at Markit.
Some reflection was observed in Austria , where industrial PMI
appointed increased from 51.2 points. in January to 51.9 point . This is the highest score
4 months.
The next step backwards noted Greece , which reported only 48.4 points. to the neutral 50 points. in January.
Two months ago the Greek manufacturing sector recorded the first positive result since
September 2014. Let us add that in July this year, when he weighed the fate of Grexitu -
manufacturing PMI reached 30.2 Hellas
point. which was one of the lowest in the history of this type of indices
the world.
Overall, the PMI for the euro area was 51.2 points. against expected 51 pts. and 52.3 points. in January.
The crowning statement PMI UK strongly decreased to 50.8
point. with 52.9 points. in January. Meanwhile, analysts expected result on
the level of 52.2 points. The recorded result was the lowest since April 2013,. That is,
the first chord of the ongoing 34-month period of recovery.
| | PMI industrial | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | November | December | January | February | Change Monthly | Result in February is: |
| Czech Republic | 54.2 | 55.6 | 56.9 | 55.5 | – 1.4 | The lowest of three months |
| Hungary | 56.2 | 49.9 | 53.1 | 54.8 | 1.7 | The highest from November |
| Spain | 53.1 | 53 | 55.4 | 54.1 | – 1.3 | The lowest of two months |
| Ireland | 53.3 | 54.2 | 54.3 | 52.9 | – 1.4 | The lowest 24 months |
| Polish | 52.1 | 52.1 | 50.9 | 52.8 | 1.9 | highest in seven months |
| Italy | 54.9 | 55.6 | 53.2 | 52.2 | – 1 | The lowest 12 months |
| Austria | 51.4 | 50.6 | 51.2 | 51.9 | 0.7 | highest in four months |
| Sweden | 54.9 | 56 | 55.5 | 51.7 | – 3.8 | The lowest in 18 months |
| Netherlands | 53.5 | 53.4 | 52.4 | 51.7 | – 0.7 | The lowest in 18 months |
| Switzerland | 49.7 | 50.4 | 50 | 51.6 | 1.6 | Supreme 6 months |
| zone euro | 52.8 | 53.2 | 52.3 | 51.2 | – 1.1 | The lowest 12 months |
| United Kingdom | 52.5 | 51.9 | 52.9 | 50.8 | – 2.1 | The lowest of 34 months |
| Germany | 52.9 | 53.2 | 52.3 | 50.5 | – 1.8 | The lowest in 15 months |
| Turkey | 50.9 | 52.2 | 50.9 | 50.3 | – 0.6 | The lowest of 4 months |
| France | 50.6 | 51.4 | 50 | 50.2 | 0.2 | highest in two months |
| Russia | 50.1 | 48.7 | 49.8 | 49.3 | – 0.5 | The lowest of two months |
| Greece | 48.1 | 50.2 | 50 | 48.4 | – 1.6 | The lowest of three months |
| Norway | 47.7 | 47.1 | 49.2 | 48.4 | – 0.8 | The lowest of two months |
| Source: Markit Economics, Credit Suisse, index compiler Halpim reported, Nordea | ||||||
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Michael Żuławiński
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