The second estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2015. Confirmed market expectations that the economy was at that time in a very good condition. According to economists, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) will leave interest rates unchanged, and the first quarter of this year will bring a slight decline in economic growth.
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), GDP increased by 3.9% y / y in the fourth quarter. 2015. Compared to 3.5% growth in the previous quarter, while domestic demand grew by 4 % (compared with 3.2% in the third quarter. 2015.). In mid-February GUS fast (experimental) estimate that GDP grew by 3.9% y / y in the fourth quarter. 2015.
According to economists, in the first quarter of this year GDP will fall to 3, 3-3,4%. Some of them points out that support for the increase in this period will be holidays, which this year fall in March (last year was in April). However, a larger acceleration is expected in the second half of the year with the first payment of the Programme 500+ Family. Some analysts predict growth throughout 2016 years even at the level of 3.8%.
Below are the most interesting comments of analysts:
“In the current year, consumption will remain the driving force of the Polish economy and mainly so it is possible to accelerate GDP in 2016. to 3.8% from 3.6% in 2015. ” – Chief economist at Postbank Monika Kurtek
“Throughout 2016 we forecast economic growth of 3.7%, mainly due to the strong increase in consumption driven by means of the program 500+ Family” – a senior economist at Bank Pekao Adam Antoniak
“We expect that in the first quarter. 2016. GDP growth will fall to 3.4% y / y, however, the average annual growth in 2016 should remain similar to that recorded in 2015, ie 3.6% r / r “- chief economist at Noble Option Raphael Sadoch
Below are the most interesting speeches economists explicitly:
” the GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2015 were close to expectations. GDP growth amounted to 3, 9% y / y, confirming preliminary estimates of the Central Statistical Office published in mid-February. domestic demand growth accelerated to 4% y / y (the highest of the year), which was primarily driven by a slight acceleration in investment growth (to 4.9% y / y) and an increase in inventories. growth in private consumption remained stable at 3.1% y / y, while the contribution of net exports to growth was neutral (accelerated growth of both exports and imports). Our forecasts for economic growth in 2016. Remain unchanged – GDP growth for the whole year is likely to reach 3.5%, and its main driver will be private consumption, which is likely to accelerate in the coming quarters (in the second half of the year clearly above 4% y / y), thanks to the fast growing income from work and payment of benefits under the plan 500+. Investment growth is likely to slow down (due to lower capital expenditure of the public sector and private companies more cautious), and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth will be slightly negative (imports will grow faster than exports). Such a structure of growth should be quite favorable in terms of tax revenue budget. The biggest risk for economic growth in Poland, it seems now possible to slow down the recovery in the euro area. Indicators of economic situation in Europe began to visibly deteriorate at the beginning of this year, and if these trends continue, it could jeopardize further growth in foreign demand for Polish goods “- the analysts of Bank Zachodni WBK
” The second estimate of GDP in the fourth quarter 2015. was not by GUS adjusted in relation to the initial calculations, and thus it has been confirmed that the pace of economic growth at the end of the previous year was faster than the one recorded in the third quarter, and also in the first two quarters of 2015. throughout the year stable it was household consumption – it has not changed in the last year. While there is a clear slowdown in the pace of investment growth in the economy: while in the first quarter dynamics y / y was in double digits and exceeded 11.0%, whereas at the end of the year no longer exceed 5.0% and amounted to 4.9%. As for the export and import dynamics here from quarter to quarter they were also getting lower, but in the fourth quarter there was a phrase: both exports and imports significantly accelerated. In the current year, consumption will remain the driving force of the Polish economy and is mainly due to the possible acceleration of GDP in 2016. To 3.8% from 3.6% in 2015. Another factor will be the support program ,, 500+ Family “, under which the budgets of families children will be credited in this year the amount of over PLN 17.0 billion, and most of which will be used most likely for current expenses. investment growth, however, due to the resurgence of concerns about the external environment (the euro area in particular), as well as in anticipation ,, incentives “to invest government (as part of ,, Plan for responsible development,” Deputy Prime Minister M.Morawieckiego) can this year did not differ significantly from the recorded in 2015. the more that just untwist will be a carousel of new EU funds within the perspective 2014-2020. on the other hand, export growth largely will depend on developments in our main trading partners (Germany in particular), and the growth of imports, among others of global commodity prices (including oil), “- chief economist at Postbank Monika Kurtek
” According to preliminary data of the Central Statistical Office today’s economic growth in the fourth quarter. u.br. accelerated to 3.9% y / y from 3.5% y / y in the third quarter., which was slightly above market expectations and our forecast (3.8% y / y). GUS has confirmed the same fast reading in mid-February. Today we met, however, the detailed structure of the increase in GDP growth in the last three months of 2015. At the end of 2015, the domestic demand accelerated to 4.0% y / y from 3.2% y / y in the third quarter., And the contribution of net exports to GDP fell to 0.0 percentage points. of 0.4 percentage points. The driving force responsible for the acceleration of GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Was to accelerate public consumption and investments, which increased by 4.8% y / y and 4.9% y / y vs. 2.7% y / y and 4.6% y / y in the third quarter. Private consumption in the fourth quarter. as in the whole of 2015. grew by 3.1% y / y. Today’s publication confirms the very good condition of the Polish economy, which will stimulate extra in 2016. Introduction of the program ,, Family 500 plus. “The increase in household consumption also will be driven by falling unemployment rate. On the other hand, due to the increased uncertainty generated by changes in the political and growing concerns about the health of the global economy, investment growth probably will slow in 2016. We expect that in the first quarter. 2016. GDP growth will fall to 3.4% y / y, however, the average annual growth in 2016 should remain similar to that recorded in 2015, ie 3.6% y / y “- chief economist at Noble Option Raphael Sadoch
” GUS has confirmed the initial estimate (flash estimate) GDP growth in 4Q15 at 3.9% y / y. this was the highest annual increase since 4Q11. domestic demand rose by 4.0% y / y, while foreign trade net had a neutral impact on GDP growth. the consumption of households remained stable growth at the level recorded in the previous quarters of 2015 . (3.1% y / y), and public consumption increased at a rate of 4.8% y / y, after rising by 2.7% y / y 3Q15. Over 2015. Private consumption growth was the most stable component of GDP, which made it possible to achieve relatively high growth gospodarczego.Nakłady gross fixed capital formation increased in 4Q15 by 4.9% y / y, ie. At a similar pace as in 3Q15. The end of 2015. Was successful for the Polish economy. The continued growth was driven by exports and consumption, while investment growth remained moderate, at a level similar to that observed in 3Q15. Stable throughout the year remained private consumption growth (3.1% y / y). The monthly data for January show some downturn in early 2016., Which is consistent with our forecast of GDP growth in 1Q16 at a rate of 3.3% y / y. Support for growth at the end of the quarter will be Easter, which the 2016 fall in March (Q1), while last year took place in April (Q2). Throughout 2016 we forecast economic growth of 3.7%, mainly due to the strong increase in consumption driven by means of 500+ Family program. At the same time, we expect that investment growth will be lower in 2016 than in 2015, among others, through delaying the commencement of the use of the new financial perspective UEoraz uncertainty about the economic plans of the government, which could hinder the investment decisions of companies “- senior economist at Bank Pekao Adam Antoniak
” The data confirm that the end of the 2015 years was the best period in terms of GDP growth, although the source of this revival – public consumption and inventories – hardly regarded as permanent. Consequently, still we think that in the first quarter of 2016, economic growth will slow to around 3.4% y / y, and assumed we re-acceleration of GDP in the second half of the year will result from the strong upsurge in consumption stimulus in the form of the program 500+. It should be noted that in addition to internal factors, among which the positive ratio fiscal stimulus will definitely prevail, the results of the Polish economy also depends on the external environment. On his side – as shown by last tygodnie- dominate risk, the scale of which is gaining relevance and the implementation of which may result in lower than expected in our baseline forecast of 3.8% GDP growth in Poland throughout 2016. “- Analysts Raiffeisen Polbank
“it should be emphasized that the rate of consumption has a positive effect on the improvement in the labor market strengthened price declines. Good at the prospect remains for the first half of this year. In addition to these factors, which will continue to affect, the consumption growth will be supported by the introduction of the program 500+. At the same time more strongly than in the previous quarter, growing government consumption, whose growth rate rose to 4.8 percent. yoy from 2.7 percent. yoy in the previous quarter, and so to the highest level in a year. However, in the case of investments it was the most interesting, whether seen in the previous two quarters of downward trend dynamics will be stopped. Result 4.9 percent. yoy means that this is what happened, although it is difficult to talk about it reversed but rather stabilization. In the short term, so no threat from this page. However, taking into account the perspective of several quarters, the continuing relatively low growth rate of investment (slightly exceeding the growth rate of GDP) could mean stopping the improvement in the labor market and slower economic growth. Most of the results from the previous quarter were different dynamics of foreign trade. Here very clearly it bounced up both the growth of exports and imports. Both were at a level exceeding 9 percent. yoy, which is a symptom of the economic recovery. However, the impact of the balance of foreign trade is neutral for GDP growth, compared to the small advantages that were recorded in the two previous quarters. In subsequent quarters, stronger consumer demand may translate into a negative contribution of foreign trade, even while still maintaining robust export growth. You can also add that, as in previous quarters, value added increased slightly slower (by 3.8 per cent. Yoy) than the rate of growth of GDP “- economist of Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego Peter Dmitrowski
” Today’s data gross domestic product confirmed a preliminary estimate of the Central Statistical Office on growth, which in Q4 last year. year accelerated to 3.9% y / y from 3.5% y / y in Q3. Seasonally adjusted growth amounted to 1.1% q / q and was the highest since Q2 2013. This means that the annualized economy in the last quarter of last year. Year grew by 4.5%. This confirms the good end of last year in the Polish economy. The structure of growth was consistent with expectations. The main engine of the Polish economy was private consumption, which grew by 3.1% y / y, adding to annual GDP growth of 1.5 points. percent. Strong support of the economy remained, investment in fixed assets, which increased by 4.9% and their contribution to growth amounted to 1.3 percentage points. percent. In their scope to grow both investment in construction, which indicates the acceleration value added in construction to 5.3% y / y, but also in machinery and equipment which suggest high capacity utilization and good financial standing of companies. In Q3 clearly accelerated the volume of foreign trade, while the contribution of net exports to GDP was zero. The beginning of 2016 indicates a slight economic slowdown in Q1 compared to a very good end of last year. PMI, as well as readings of industrial production and retail sales for January are a confirmation of this. Throughout 2016, while we expect the GDP growth at a level similar to 2015. Still the main support of the economy will remain private consumption, which remains the positive impact of improvement in the labor market, and additional support consumption will be a fiscal impulse in the form of payments child care benefits. Investments should still stay on the path of growth, but their growth will be limited by the small-scale public investment financed from EU funds. The tendency to increase private investment may be limited while increased uncertainty regarding the political stability. Due to strong domestic demand, we expect acceleration of imports, thus the contribution of net exports will be negative. Economic growth this year will be less balanced than in 2015, although we do not expect the strong deterioration in the stability of the economy. From the point of view of monetary policy these data do not change our expectations. Our baseline scenario remains the stabilization of interest rates “- the analysts of Bank Millennium
(ISBnews)
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