reports FOR ratios of public debt to GDP will lead to a level of 54%. returning to the level before the dismantling of the BCP through the previous government.
FOR notes that you are more zadłuża, despite the good situation in the labour market, which increases state revenues from personal income tax and social contributions (and it reduces the cost of benefits), as well as the rapid growth of consumption podwyższającego VAT receipts.
FOR rejects the argument that the national debt in Poland is much lower than for example in Germany (68 per cent. GDP) and other advanced countries. Justify that our country has fewer opportunities for additional income taxes, if proved that they are necessary for the timely repayment of debt.
Look, FOR, public debt in Poland should be compared to the debt of the countries of our region. “This comparison is not we look good. higher government debt have Croatia (84 per cent. Of GDP), Slovenia (80 per cent. Of GDP) and Hungary (73 per cent. Of GDP). The rest of the region-we have less debt. at the same time, the Troika made up of the weak economic performance in the region after the EU enlargement to the East", – stated in the analysis FOR.
the Foundation of Leszek Balcerowicz has sounded the alarm to collect on the interest, you will need to raise taxes, or to restrict, for example, costs for the construction and repair of roads. In addition, the rapid growth of public debt in a period of prosperity is threatened by the economic crisis in a period of low economic downturn.
FOR out there and still every year after the occurrence of external shocks, public debt przyrastał more than 5 percent. GDP. “After a year of turbulence from the debt otarłby on the constitutional boundary of 60%. GDP" – said Fund. In such a situation, the ruling circles were forced to cut the budget deficit to zero or to ignore the Constitution.
“Drove our country to his dissuade foreign capital. At the same time carry out fiscal policy as if it never was to come the bad times. But they will come. And it will be very bad" – completes FOR his analysis.
it Should however be noted that the methodology FOR is a little different from those that apply in the Ministry of Finance. Preliminary data from the office at the end of September 2016. pointed to the national debt of the order of 939,5-978,5 billion (this is higher reading on the EU methodology). So officially trillion national debt has not yet been collected.
- FOR Counter shows the values estimated, explains in an interview with MarketNews24 Łaszek Alexander, chief economist FOR. But the government intends to continue this policy zadłużania. In the draft budget for 2017. the government predicts that public debt will rise by year-end, nearly 1 trillion 80 billion UAH.
in addition, it is worth Recalling that the growth of public debt is not a thing of expression, provided that it grows slower than GDP. Meanwhile, as follows from the data of Eurostat, the Polish public debt to GDP ratio becomes higher. At the end of II quarter of 2016. was 53.8%., and yet at the end of the first quarter, the ratio was 52,1%, while a year ago-51.1 per cent. Among EU countries, the faster the debt grows only in Greece, Latvia and Portugal.
See also VIDEO: Balcerowicz: “If someone wanted to harm Poland, to implement such a program as implemented”
No comments:
Post a Comment