In the most likely scenario, the total load banks – due to spread (the difference between the exchange rate at the bank and the exchange rate NBP) and conversion loans in accordance with the proposal of the President’s Office – amounted to 66.9 billion zł. This is the result of the calculations, the Financial Supervision Commission, the President delegated his project, estimated to cost. The survey covered 58 financial institutions. From the previous calculations NBP showed that if all borrowers benefited from a presidential bid, it would cost the banks at least 35 billion zł, and the return spreads – an additional 9 billion zł.
According to the presidential project of February for conversion loans in francs for gold would take place on the basis of the so-called. righteous course. It would be calculated by comparing the cost of loans in francs to the cost of a hypothetical loan of gold. The entire risk arising from the rise in the franc would take on the bank. “Chancellery of the President of the Republic of Poland recognizes the Commission’s calculation as a basis for further discussions about the final shape of the regulation. At the same time Office is waiting for a response KNF the second statement regarding the information about the portfolio of mortgage loans and the situation of banks. For the Office of priority is to help borrowers while maintaining the financial stability of the state and the public sector bank “- said in a statement.
Several banks under the water
Most of the costs – approx. 69 percent. of the total amount of 66.9 billion zł – would be borne by those banks that are actively grant loans in francs in 2007-08. The value of refund for spreads to 15.2 billion zł, with 12.1 billion zł is the return of loans currently held in banks’ balance sheets – lists KNF. And it warns that the five biggest banks could cover the return spreads their profits, but the costs of conversion would constitute already three times their profits.
In an even worse situation would include banks, on the other Fridays in size. Their annual income is not sufficient even to cover refunds on overvalued. And the cost of conversion for them ten times earnings expected for 2016.
Currency rates up, will be 100 billion zł
Supervision also calculated the possible costs of conversion when the Swiss franc would increase by 25 percent. It is likely in the context of the financial crisis of 2008-09, and also the conversion gold can lose its value.
What happened? In this variant, the cost for banks rises to 103.4 billion zł. It is approx. Two-thirds of banks’ own funds. These charges are up to nine times higher than expected for the current year profits the industry.
KNF studied two variants. The first took into account the franc from 31 December 2015. (3,94 zł) and in the other the strengthening of the franc by 25 percent. – (Ie 4.93 zł). In each of the variants considered the four scenarios.
The first analyzed the voluntary conversion proposed in the presidential election law, in the second – obligatory in the third – the possibility of making the property the bank and automatic repayment of debt. On the other hand, in the fourth scenario – according to the KNF most likely – banks alone would determine the viability of restructuring from the point of view of the customer (or lack thereof) and the way of restructuring for everyone.
Doubts even PiS
the politicians of the ruling Law and Justice have already had doubts about the presidential project francs. Yesterday morning Henryk Kowalczyk on Radio ZET said simply that “aid for frankowiczów depends on the scale of the problem.” – How will we know what are the implications, then we can say, “Yes, we do it this year,” or “We spread it for several years” – said Kowalczyk.
Prior to their reservations about the project He reported Deputy Mateusz Morawiecki. According to him, “presidential project would be a big threat for the banking sector.” Morawiecki also said that the government is working on a law francs, while the president “will not he persist.”
Some lawyers report also constitutional doubts. Lawyers warn of possible compensation costs for financial institutions. The opinion of prof. Cezary Kosikowski and prof. Brand Chmaja (prepared at the request of the Polish Bank Association) also shows that the President’s idea of breaking the constitutional principles, including principle of a social market economy, economic freedom, protection of property, equality before the law or the principle of a democratic state of law and subsequent directives on the correct legislation.
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