After winning the elections, PiS representatives frankowiczów began to irritate – after all, evil platform no longer blocked the work of parliament and government. Why, then, there is still no bill? One of the projects reportedly went to the basket, and representatives of the movement frankowiczów and Presidential officials began to look askance at each other. In November Maciej Pawlicki published even bitter text in the right-wing portal wpolityce.pl, which publicly criticized presidential officials (presidential member KNF Zdzislaw Sokal and Minister Maciej Łopińskiego). In December, there was even a protest frankowiczów the presidential palace.
The pressure led to the fact that the Office of the President on January 15 finally put forward a draft support frankowiczom. Conversion of the loan was to be held at “fair exchange rate”, taking into account day to take a loan, its profit margin and duration. Presentation of the project was bizarre, because the question about the cost of this operation (flipping most of the burdens on banks) Minister Łopiński with disarming frankness replied that only will be counted. KNF and the NBP.
Financial Armageddon
NBP fairly quickly estimated that the cost of implementation of the presidential promises can reach more than 40 billion zł. For the calculation of KNF we had to wait a little longer, but it was worth it, because it illustrated the scale of recklessness authors of the bill.
KNF adopted two variants: one in which the time przewalutowywania loans does not change the exchange rate and the second, in which the exchange rate weakens by 25 percent. during this operation. It’s not so unlikely, considering how huge costs for banks, customers and the state would involve conversion of loans.
In the first scenario, banks must make nearly 67 billion zł. This is roughly six years profits of the entire banking industry. But this is only the beginning of a domino.
financial implications of the draft law may not only undermine the stability of individual banks but also lead to a loss of confidence in the banking system in an extreme scenario, cause the financial crisis.
In this scenario, the top five banks of poverty would be able to bear the burden of the law. But more banks have no chance to raise the cost of such an operation – according to FSA “the value of redemptions [loans] is here ten times the expected result for 2016.”. In a word, you will reach the banks’ own funds. The three banks would be reduced by one half, and three other of these funds would simply run out. This means that some banks will need to be repaired or proceedings, a part – will fall. And here we are flying the next domino: the liquidation of the bank’s costs and the state budget (the Bank Guarantee Fund must return deposits to 100 thousand. Euro), and for bank customers (lose the excess over 100 thousand. Euros). KNF calculates these costs, respectively 137.8 billion zł and 70.7 billion zł.
This is not the end, because it is more pessimistic scenario – and not so incredible – in which our currency weakens by 25 percent. Then the banks are losing 103.4 billion zł, the state must find 144.3 billion zł, and customers can say goodbye to almost 78 billion zł their deposits. A total of over 325 million zł. And financial armageddon.
Financial Supervision Commission concludes bluntly: “The financial implications of the draft law can result not only undermine the stability of individual banks but also lead to a loss of confidence in the banking system in an extreme scenario, cause the financial crisis.”
all by the fact that a politician promised something in the campaign.
KNF scapegoat?
PiS not really is no one to shift responsibility for the absence of a law for frankowiczów, so he probably will try make a scapegoat of the KNF: look, we would want you to find heaven, but “the redoubt of the old regime” throws us logs feet. It is known, the messenger of bad news always has screwed, especially under the rule of despots and dilettantes.
The term of the current head of the Financial Supervision Authority Andrzej Jakubiak ends in October. His place will be probably his, the “good change”. The only question, then who will be to blame, it is impossible to realize the lunar promises the president?
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