Morgan Stanley raises GDP growth forecast for the Polish. Reason: 500+ – Gazeta.pl

The growth forecast of 3.6 percent means that the Polish economy will not lose anything with the momentum which had in 2015 – in the previous year, our GDP has also increased by 3.6 percent.

Morgan Stanley points to the same mechanism mentioned by the government itself preparing the bill. Poles get extra money in hand – across the economy several billion dollars per year. It can be expected that soon it will spend in the shops triggers the economic situation and giving entrepreneurs boost to production. Perhaps some companies therefore opt for new investments to increase its production capacity. Perhaps some companies also employ new workers.

This in turn will further increase income among people. This may result in a further increase in spending. And so on and so forth. And that person with additional income will have better opportunities for possible borrowing, which will also be spent on consumption. This is the mechanism of rapid economic growth, for which the first impulse is to be 500 +.

Morgan Stanley also assumes that potanieją loans – they believe the MPC will cut this year’s main interest rate NBP from 1.5 percent to 1 percent.

SEE ALSO: do you want to get 500 zł? Call them. The family started a hotline program 500 +

American bank to introduce the program 500+ calls a “fiscal loosening,” which assumes that the program will trigger an increase in the budget deficit. If the government increased expenses associated with 500+ fully patched higher taxes, the deficit would not increase, but also disappear positive spending impulse to the economy – as much money as wpompuje in portfolios Poles program 500+ removed by them in the form of taxes.

with the same mechanism of the crisis in 2009, pulled Polish economy minister Rostowski with the government of Donald Tusk. In 2009 and 2010, the budget deficit in Poland increased up to 7.5 percent of GDP, but thanks to that already in 2011, our economy grew by 5 percent. At the cost, however, was an increase in public debt, which three years later led to a serious diverting funds.

Interestingly, the government Beaty Szydło ensures that a larger deficit will not continue and that will he keep required by the European Union and around 3 percent of GDP.

Morgan Stanley in their projections assume that the Czech Republic and Hungary will this year grow by 2.5 percent, on Ukraine 1.1 percent, while in Russia will fall in GDP of 2.1 percent. The euro area to grow by 1.5 percent. Forecast economic growth for the whole world was reduced from 3.3 percent to 3 percent

Of course, Morgan Stanley is just one of many investment banks in the world, its predictions do not need to check.