Moody’s launched a review to assess the reliability of Russia – According to Radio Free Europe. Moscow threatens another downgrading.
The current assessment of credibility is maintained at Ba1, a speculative rating, but Moody’s does not rule out the revision. In her opinion, the Russian budget does not fit into the current, low oil prices. As noted by Radio Free Europe, Russia its income from exports is based up to 60 percent. on the sale of oil and gas.
According to the agency Russia is exposed to the “structural shock” associated with a drastic drop in oil prices to levels around 36 dollars per barrel compared to prices reaching up to $ 100. per barrel in 2014.
The current budget of the Russian Federation is based on the forecast of 50 dollars per barrel and the deficit at 3 percent. Of GDP this year. With forecasts of the Ministry of Finance shows that if the average oil price will be 40 dollars per barrel, Russia threatens to significantly increase the budget deficit.
Moscow itself admits to problems. Russian Central Bank predicts that the average price of raw materials will reach $ 35 per barrel, which hit the economy. As noted by Moody’s, 43 percent. state revenue is dependent on oil prices.
The Russian finance minister assured, however, that the government is doing everything possible to overcome the effects of the oil crash. Already announced spending cuts, increases in excise and sealing system of tax collection.
However, Moody’s is still insufficient action. Fitch notes that little chance to carry out the more radical reforms, especially reforms of the pension system.
At the same time the rating agency launched a review of ratings: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
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