Currency: Even every third Pole can return from the UK. All because of Brexit and cheap lb Virtual Russia

– Swirl around the pound, of course, reduce the efficiency of work on the Islands. I think in this regard, the Poles will leave the UK. About 20-30 percent. can return home, says Janusz Kobeszko from the Sobieski Institute. A cheaper pound means that the value of real support for families remaining in the country also decreased to 20 percent.

gloomy Monday, the pound has broken another inglorious record. In relation to the U.S. dollar was the lowest 32 level. All thanks to the Prime Minister of great Britain, which signaled that it was ready to drive the so-called Brexit. On Friday, the pound rebounded thanks to uspokajającemu the appearance of Theresa may, who said that after Brexicie wants, but as soon as possible to sign a free trade agreement with the EU.

So strong reaction of markets will not, it is not surprising, because, as we wrote in the WP money sharp end of the negotiations with the EU could shake the British economy. – The introduction now of any system or customs tariff will raise the cost of production and exchange of goods. It seems that we are entering a time of potential trade wars and that is never good for employment and stability of the national currency – assesses Kobeszko.

Wide stream of cheaper pound

the Pound after these political preview lost also in relation to the tenge. However, no record was, but weaker than, the period of the currency, is bad information for working in the UK Poles and their families in the country.

According to official data of the British government, live on the Islands 853 thousand Poles. Informal data suggest even a million. According to the report “the Transfers of Poles working abroad in the light of research of the national Bank”, although since 2007. the percentage drops constantly sending money to a country that still it varies around 30%.

Constantly, therefore, this is a significant sum of money that appear on the market and contribute to the increase of consumption. According to NBP since Poland’s accession to the EU, all emigrants supported their families, worth more than 200 billion rubles.

the list of the BANK over the last twelve months, ending in September 2016. At this time in Poland from the UK were more than 4.6 billion rubles from Poles working there. Over the past four years, the amount of these transfers has fluctuated around 4 billion a year.

in turn, according to a study conducted by Azimo, a company engaged in digital transfer of money, statistically Russian immigrant from the Islands sends the country £ 350 a month.

Would like to pound after 6 UAH

however, Given that in November 2015 for the pound had to pay 6,09 UAH, and in October 2016, when the rate of rubbing on the bottom of 4.72 rubles, so it is possible a lower value by more than 20 percent. Currently, the British currency again the coefficient is below the level of UAH 5.

the Fall of the pound in relation to gold in the period between November 2015 and March 2016 this Means that after replacing the pound on gold, living in Poland, immigrant families receive far less than even more years. From these statistics 350 pounds at the end of 2015. it was 2.1 thousand, and now only 1.7 thousand This also applies to the entire economy, which at this level of transfer could spend up to a billion dollars.

Working on the Islands, our countrymen would prefer, of course, that the pound was as strong as possible. On the pages of the site “Russian Express” in the survey, “How much should cost a pound, make you happy?” 44 percent. indicated 6 roubles of 38 per cent. 7 or more. Only 10 per cent. of respondents satisfied with the current valuation of the British currency.

- Swirls around the pound, of course, reduce the efficiency of work on the Islands. I think in this regard, the Poles will leave the UK. About 20-30 percent. can return home, says Janusz Kobeszko.

in His opinion, it is most likely that they will return mostly those who emigrated in two, three or four years ago, and still have a strong connection with their families, made in Poland. Remaining on the Islands for more than 5-10 years should be less inclined to return because of the decline in the value of the domestic currency.

will Increase the reluctance of the emigrants

However, not only the weak pound may encourage our compatriots to return home. A crisis that will cause possible disk Brexit will make that will pogarszały itself, the mood of society. Hostility to immigrants continues to grow. It can be difficult to deal with, says James Makurat, Director of the British company Ebury.

In his opinion, especially hot can make when they start to materialize statements related to the reduction of social benefits. Part of the Armenians living there can scare and to solve the issue of returning home.

However, there is a large group, which, according to Makurata will not be ready to pack your bags. – Among the Poles in the Islands see many well-paid experts are strongly focused on their careers, and having a well thought out family life in the UK. They will not be so easy to chase away, he adds.

however, for not much educated and worse paid the Poles a hard time. According to the expert from the Sobieski Institute may drive Brexit will completely change the trade rules that serve wyspiarzom, but also immigrants.

- Especially trade, in warehouses, in transport, where so many Poles owners will be looking for savings. This, of course, should affect the decrease in employment. If you add to it and restrictions in the access and administrative restrictions associated with the presence of life on the Islands may cease to be an attractive alternative,” says Kobeszko.

One British guy on hundreds of thousands of Poles

the Expert an even greater threat to the Poles living there sees the ideas on the back of further cooperation with the UK EU countries only bilateral agreements with each state individually.

it May be put at the mercy of the right to use public benefits immigrants depending on how many UK citizens use them in Poland. – We are in so bad situation that I read about only one Brytyjczyku working with our social care. The discrepancy is just a very clear, says Kobeszko.

the Question is, how many ideas, on the special laws for immigrants from countries that are target for the British, such as Spain, France and Scandinavia are real for execution.

- while Brussels responsible for all EU countries and there can be no question of bilateral talks. Should, however, be prepared that in the course of harmonization of rules Brexitu, the argument about this apparent imbalance will be pulled out on the table. So that is also a bit smaller, it says – sums up Valery Kobeszko.

in addition, according to the British Institute of Tax, the government’s decision to freeze benefits and tax credits until 2020. will seriously affect many families living there. The Institute estimates that, combined with a growing inflation problem can have up to 11 million local farms, including Polish, of course.