Our economy is accelerating. Gross Domestic Product in 2015 increased compared to the previous year by 3.6 percent.
Such data the Central Statistical Office. They are better than expected.
GDP calculated in constant prices of the previous year increased in real terms last year by 3.6 per cent., Compared with 3.3 per cent. in 2014. – said on Tuesday the Central Statistical Office in the preliminary estimate of gross domestic product.
Better-than-expected
Economists and analysts estimate that in 2015 the economy grew at about 3.5 percent. Gross Domestic Product in 2014 was higher in real terms by 3.3 percent from a year earlier.
The good condition of the economy
The CSO data on economic growth in 2015 . confirms the good condition of the Polish economy and are in line with the expectations of the Ministry of Finance – rated the Finance Ministry in a comment, sent PAP.
– Better than expected results of short-term indicators of the economic situation in the fourth quarter. last year were reflected in the real growth rate GDP in the fourth quarter. We estimate that this rate y / y amounted to approx. 3.8 per cent. (Possible range from 3.6 per cent. To 4 per cent.) To 3.5 percent. in the third quarter., which, according to today’s information CSO led to GDP growth in the whole of 2015. by 3.6 percent. – Is written in the message MF.
Resort pointed out that the growth was supported mainly by domestic demand, with a small, but still positive contribution of net exports. – Good results in domestic demand are associated with the acceleration of the rate of growth of household consumption to changes in the economic category recorded in 2014. Positively should also receive the results of investment demand – real investment growth turned out, although lower than in 2014. However, the scale of change was almost twice the GDP growth – indicated.
According to MF favorable trends in the real economy translates into improved situation on the labor market. – We estimate that the harmonized unemployment rate calculated based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the statistics of registered unemployment in the last year amounted to an average of 7.5 percent. to 9 percent. on average in 2014. This is a very good result, close to the estimated level of equilibrium unemployment rate – said the Finance Ministry.
Polish economy will accelerate
Very good starting point for growth in 2016
According to the Ministry the results that the Polish economy achieved in 2015., in conjunction with the NBP data on historically low imbalances current account balance, should be perceived as a very good starting point for growth in 2016.
the Central Statistical Office said on Tuesday in a statement that the GDP calculated in constant prices of the previous year It increased in real terms last year by 3.6 per cent., compared with 3.3 per cent. in 2014. The data were slightly better than expectations of economists, who had expected the so-called. market consensus that GDP will grow by 3.5 percent.
– in 2015. Domestic demand grew in real terms by 3.4 percent. with GDP growth of 3.6 percent. In 2014. Domestic demand rose by 4.9 percent. with GDP growth of 3.3 percent. Total consumption in 2015. Exceeded the level of 2014. By 3.2 per cent., In the consumption expenditure of households by 3.1 percent. (In 2014. Respectively, an increase of 3.1 per cent. And 2.6 per cent.) – GUS has said in a statement.
– Gross capital formation in 2015. In comparison with the previous year increased in real terms by 4.2 per cent., including gross fixed capital formation increased by 6.1 per cent. (In 2014. Recorded an increase by 12.6 per cent., And an increase of 9.8 per cent.). The investment rate in the national economy (ratio of gross fixed capital formation to gross domestic product at current prices) in 2015. Amounted to 20.2 per cent., Against 19.6 per cent. in 2014. – added.
The domestic demand growth engine
The domestic demand mainly related to the consumption, less from exports was the main factor of economic growth in 2015. – said on Tuesday the Central Statistical Office in “Information on the socio-economic situation of the country in 2015.”
– in 2015. GDP growth in Poland was slightly faster than the year before. The main driver of growth was domestic demand, greater consumption than investment. Net exports, in contrast to the previous year positively influenced the growth of GDP – wrote GUS in the report.
Consumption and investment
– The economic growth rate in 2015 It accelerated to 3.6 percent. from 3.3 percent. in 2014. The next year in a row Polish economy coped quite well, although the external environment is still difficult. The main driving force was in 2015 domestic demand, especially consumption, which rose more than 3 percent. and investments, which increased more than 6 percent. Stable growth in consumption is the result of the improving situation on the labor market and increase purchasing power and wages as a result of deflation, which has been present in Poland for the entire 2015 years. Investments grew slightly slower than in 2014. Two major factors influenced the situation. The first is depleting resources from the EU funds from the pool of 2017-2013 and before unrolling the funds of the 2014-2020. The second one is that dominated the uncertainty associated with the external environment, even the threat of a Greek exit from the euro zone crisis, migration in Europe, the economic slowdown in China – explains Monika Kurtek, chief economist Postbank
good data, but …
– These are good data from the pessimistic accent. The government this year started GDP growth of 3.8 percent. and everything indicates, however, that our economy can afford to 3.6 percent. But what is worth noting are very good data. Economists expected a reading of 3.5 percent. – Says Grzegorz Siemiończyk, publicist Republic and Parkiet.
Better than the assumption in the budget
– The result is very good. There would agree with this pessimistic accent, because the budget of the previous year, were lower than actual data. This bodes us that maybe next year will be the same. This is a very optimistic assumption – says Maryjka Szurowska, columnist Newspapers Banking
The times we are anxious
– On the one hand we are dealing with factors positive such as the situation on the labor market. The unemployment rate remains below 10 per cent., And the prospects are optimistic. On the other hand, we see what is happening in the Far East and what is going on socially and politically in Western Europe. This may have an impact on the economic situation in Europe, which is also on us – emphasizes Robert Łaniewski, head of the Foundation for the Development of Cashless Transactions.
Polish economy accelerates
– Last year’s growth rate was the highest since 2011. when reached 5 percent. Although the period of global crisis, our economy has survived in good condition, reducing GDP growth to 2.6 only in 2009. Is unexpectedly marked slowdown occurred in 2012-2013, when GDP grew by 1.6 and 1.3 percent. Back to high, reaching 3.3 percent. dynamics occurred as early as 2014. The past year saw a continuation of this trend, which has a good chance to remain also in 2016. although not very favorable conditions in the global economy. Argument in favor of such a scenario is increasing for two years the rate of investment, which last year for the first time in four years exceeded 20 percent. and it reached 20.2 percent. The upward trend of this indicator is usually permanent and persists for several years in a row. Following the recent slowdown, it started to improve in 2014. So you can expect it to continue, the more that support it will be the inflow of funds from the European Union – says Roman Przasnyski, principal analyst Gerda Broker.
in the fourth quarter. growth wiped by 4 percent.
Vice President of the Institute for Market Economics Bohdan Wyżnikiewicz told PAP that Tuesday’s data is the same good news. They show that in the fourth quarter, economic growth wiped by 4 percent. In his view, growth in investment was indeed lower than in 2014., But was on a high level.
– It is also important that the increase put both domestic demand and external, ie net exports. It is true that in a small scale, but not negatively affected, as in the previous years – he said. He pointed out that this means that the Polish economy has two engines: a larger – domestic demand and less – foreign demand.
According to Wyżnikiewicz well as last year’s household consumption was at a decent level, higher than a year earlier. The economist also noted the good performance of industry and construction slowly doing their losses from previous years.
The economy was stronger than expected
The main economist at Raiffeisen Polbank Marta Petka -Zagajewska believes that the CSO data show that the Polish economy was in last year’s stronger than expected. “It is true that the difference is only 0.1 pct., But is also a hint as to what we will see in the results of the fourth quarter,” – she said. Highlighted the critical role of private consumption in the last year due to the economy.
– These data show that the economy is in good shape and solid impetus comes in 2016. If you have been implemented promises concerning the program of 500 + and fairly high the role of fiscal policy in supporting social spending, the role of consumption in 2016. will be even more dominant. I do not think anything significantly changed the investment side – she said. According to the results of investments this year will be weaker.
In her view, looking at the situation on the currency market and oil prices, it is expected that in the first half of the year we will have to deal with a positive contribution of net exports to GDP and GDP growth throughout 2016. of 3.8 percent.
– This assumption states that the election promises will be introduced, and that these changes do not make that level of uncertainty is so large that it starts to have a negative impact on both investment and household decisions about making their purchases. Such a negative scenario begins to slowly draw – she said.
in 2016. GDP is expected to remain at a solid level of approx. 3.5 percent.
By economists from BZ WBK in the last quarter of the year, GDP growth accelerated to approx. 3.8 per cent. or it was even higher. – We continue to believe that economic growth in Poland should be in 2016. Remain at a solid level of approx. 3.5 per cent., Still driven by three main factors: consumption, investment and exports – assessed. In their view, it is possible that private consumption – supported not only by income from work, but also a new addition to the child – this year will be higher. Fall can while the index for investment and foreign demand due to uncertain forecast global growth and greater political risk.
The Central Statistical Office said on Tuesday in a statement that the GDP calculated in constant prices of the previous year increased in real terms in the past year by 3.6 per cent., compared with 3.3 per cent. in 2014. The data were slightly better than expectations of economists, who had expected the so-called. market consensus that GDP will grow by 3.5 percent.
“in 2015. Domestic demand increased in real terms by 3.4 per cent. with GDP growth of 3.6 percent. In 2014. Domestic demand rose by 4.9 per cent. with GDP growth of 3.3 percent. total consumption in 2015. exceeded the level of 2014. by 3.2 per cent., in the consumption expenditure of households by 3.1 percent. (2014 r. respectively, an increase of 3.1 per cent. and 2.6 per cent.) “- GUS has said in a statement.
– gross capital formation in 2015. in comparison with the previous year increased in real terms by 4, 2 per cent., including gross fixed capital formation increased by 6.1 per cent. (In 2014. Recorded an increase by 12.6 per cent., And an increase of 9.8 per cent.). The investment rate in the national economy (ratio of gross fixed capital formation to gross domestic product at current prices) in 2015. Amounted to 20.2 per cent., Against 19.6 per cent. in 2014. – added.
The dynamics of Polish GDP in 2016. will amount to approx. 3.5 per cent. In the second half of the year should show slight inflation – slightly more expensive food, clothing and services
Newseria
PAP / IAR, abo
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