Inflation in December is back, but at the expense of food and fuel – the Banker

in a Period of inflation in the Poland began well – seen from the detailed data published by the main statistical Office. In December observed an especially significant increase in the price of food and fuel.

In December, the price index of consumer goods and services increased in annual terms, month by 0.7%, and in annual terms by 0.8%, announced today the GUS. Market consensus, based on a preliminary testimonies for up to two weeks, expected 0.7% m/m and 0.8% y/y In November, GUS for the first time since 1989. pointed out that inflation in annual expression the year was a round zero.

compared with last year, in December, according to CEO increased the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages (2.5 percent, from September 2013), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (1%), education (0.7 percent), restaurants and hotels (1.6%), and other goods and services (2.9 percent).

special attention deserves the increase in the category “transport” (4,3%), which was the highest since October 2012. Much positive result has a connection with that in November, prices at the pump were clearly higher than 12 months in the category “fuel for private vehicles” was the annual dynamics at the level of 8.9%. The fall was recorded while in the categories clothing and footwear (-4,7%), communications (-0.7 PCT), health (1.6 million%) and “recreation and culture” (-0,8%).

in relation To the clearly growing inflation CPI, the weight of attention is changing at the present time in the direction of core inflation. This published by the BANK indicator takes into account some of the most volatile prices such as food and fuel (in this the second category is particularly strong you see now the effect of a low base) and is a Council for Monetary Policy used in making decisions in interest rates.

the Closest reading of core inflation (for December) will be announced on Monday 14.00. It is possible that the indicator discounted prices on food and energy, again enter the positive territory (in November of -0.1% yoy).

in Parallel with the report for December, GUS filed today that the annual average prices of consumer goods and services total in 2016. in respect 2015. made up of 99.4, which means the decline in prices of 0.6 %.

This is the result of the above recorded last year (-0.9%) and only the sixth negative result from the end of the SECOND world war. On średnioroczną deflation at the end of 1971. (-0,1%), 1954 (-6,3%), 1955 (-2,4%) and 1956 (-1%), however, should be viewed through the prism of the current panorama of reality centrally planned economies. Wanting to get to times relative to the market deflation in Poland, it would be back up to 30 years. The twentieth century.

p. historical are the years of hyperinflation. The palm owned 1990. (585,8%), followed by the number in 1989. (251,1%) and 1982. (100,8%). These lie outside the limits of the scale adopted by the following schedule.

Michael Żuławiński

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